Wednesday, March 30, 2011

How can you tell when a politician is lying?

Obama on TV just now. "My administration has done everything in its power to encourage off shore oil exploration". Right. In actual fact, Obama shut down all off shore exploration after the Deep Water Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico last year. It's still shut down.

So who gets blamed if the US govt shuts down?

Compromise doesn't seem close, or at least nobody will admit to it. House Republicans passed a continuing resolution to keep the US government running until the end of the fiscal year, September or October of 2011. The House passed measure calls for $61 billion worth of cuts. Which is chicken feed compared to the $1.6 trillion estimated for this year's deficit. But it's a step in the right direction, and if Congress cannot take a first baby step, we are going down the drain like Greece. The democratic controlled Senate doesn't want to pass it, they want the House Republicans to back off and continue spending as usual.
If the Republicans hold fast to their spending cuts, the government runs out of money and will "shut down", unless the democrats cave. Actually some crucial government functions like mailing (or direct depositing) social security checks and paying the troops will continue but life will get rough for a lot of people who work for Uncle Sam.
The democratic media, that's about all of them except Fox and the Wall St Journal, will blame the Republicans. The Democrats will blame the Republicans. But will the voters believe the media and the democrats? Who knows. Have any voters thought about this one? Rasmussen isn't polling on this one. Presumably the Republicans are watching their polls and will stick to their guns if their polls indicate the voters won't retaliate for a shutdown next November.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Rick Santorum at the Lincoln Reagan Dinner

Clearly Mr. Santorum is sizing up his chances in the upcoming NH primary. He was the after dinner speaker and the Republican audience gave him a warm welcome and lots of applause. He spoke at length, and he speaks well. He described his family and childhood. He promised to sign a repeal of Obamacare. That's about all I can remember on the morning after. He took questions from the floor and handled them well.
Herman Cain (who spoke before this same audience a month ago) made a stronger impression.
And, Rick has some enemies out there. Upon leaving the event, I found an anti-Santorum flyer tucked under the windshield wiper of my car. It attacked Santorum for being insufficiently conservative. The flyer was unsigned, indicating a low level of courage on the part of its printers and distributors.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Where do all the groovy cannon come from?

Pictures from Libya show enthusiastic freedom fighters bombing around in low end pickup trucks with a cool looking gun mounted on the bed. The guns are all black, with muzzle brakes and air cooling fins on the barrel and lotsa cool grips and magazines and stuff hanging off them. They look to be maybe 1 inch to 1.5 inch (20 mm to 37 mm) in caliber, heavier than 30 and 50 cal machine guns, but still small bore by artillery standards.
Guns like this were anti aircraft guns in WWII but obsolete since. In Viet Nam the flak guns were all 57 mm and 100 mm, too heavy to mount in a small Toyota pickup. These things are a little on the heavy side for personal side arms. They must have come from government arsenals.
Why did Arab government arsenals contain so many guns too light to hit aircraft or stop tanks? Perhaps Arab purchasing agents entranced with the coolness of 20 mm autocannon? Combined with western salesmen pleased to find buyers for WWII surplus?

So how did GE manage to pay no Income Tax?

I haven't checked GE's books, but its probably tax loss carry forward. Under US tax law, companies that lost money last year can subtract last year's losses from this years income.
We ought to rewrite the tax law to do away with tax loss carry forward. Right now, companies that loose money get a a double tax break. Loose money and they can rightly show no taxable income for the year of the loss, AND they can reduce their tax next year by the amount they lost this year.
I don't think we need to reward losers in our tax code. Companies that loose money ought to go out of business, not get a tax break. Companies making money ought to pay income tax on earnings regardless of how bad last year was.
Plus it would surely simplify doing their taxes if they couldn't mix last year's books with this year's books.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

"Nuclear Power after Fukushima"

Title of an article in this week's Economist magazine. Now why would I bother to read such an article? They don't know what's going to happen, and I know they don't know. Nobody knows.
We still don't know how bad Fukushima is. So far there is horrendous property damage. Five out of six reactors on the site are damaged and/or wrecked permanently. A few workers have been exposed to maybe twice the safe yearly dosage (17 REM)for nuclear workers. Radio activity outside the plant fence is worrisome but not bad enough to warrant abandoning the land long term. But the accident is still not under control. If a reactor pressure vessel ruptures the radio activity release will poison a big swath of Japan for decades. That hasn't happened yet, but nobody will rule that out as long as the reactor cooling systems are down. The ultimate outcome, either merely horrendous property damage or a second Chernobyl, will make a big difference in what happens next.
We will have a contest between the anti nuke greenies and the consumers who want a lower electric bill. The greenies will talk about accidents that will cause all your children to be born with two heads. And glow in the dark.
The consumer side is less organized. It isn't clear right now that nuclear power is all that cheap, although rising fuel prices may turn that around. In the US, nuclear plants need US government guarantees on their mortgages, the private capital market considers them risky investments, and won't lend without Uncle Sam's guarantee. That suggests that a $6 billion-and-change nuclear plant may never earn enough money to pay off its mortgage.
The utilities got cold feet about nuclear power 30 years ago after Seabrook and Three Mile Island. So they are standing on the sidelines, they don't have a dog in the fight.
The global warming greenies ought to back nuclear power, 'cause it doesn't emit any CO2. But they probably won't.

With the battle ground and the contestants so murky, any kind of prediction is untrustworthy.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

I didn't know NH was in this bad a shape

Here is a listing of degree of funding of public pension plans. NH is near the bottom. Degree of funding is a measure of how much money is in the pension fund compared to the money owed to pensioners. When the pension fund runs dry, the retirees scream and cry for us taxpayers to put more money in the fund so that they get their retirement checks on time. And in full.
Looking at where we are, those pension talks going in in Concord need to be driven to a successful conclusion. We taxpayers ought to insist on a few things.
1. No checks for anyone under the age of 65. It's fine to retire early, but don't expect us taxpayers to fund you. You don't get checks until you reach 65.
2. No spiking. Pension is based upon base pay only. Overtime, sickpay, accrued vacation and other pay does not count. In many states, and perhaps in NH, pension is based on total pay in the last year before retirement. Employees cash in all their accrued vacation time, unpaid sick pay, and work a lot of overtime. This can boost their pensions by up to 50%.
3. Nobody gets a pension larger than 50% of their regular base pay.
4. You gotta work 20 years or more to be eligible for a state pension.
5. No double dipping. If you are eligible for a pension from one state agency, and go to work for another state agency, you don't get two pensions.