Tuesday, June 30, 2015

F35 production trundles forward

Aviation Week reports that Lockheed claims it will get the price of F35s down to a mere $80 million apiece, by 2019.  They didn't say what the cost is today.  Lockheed thinks this is a good price.  "The $80 million price point will ensure we have a fifth generation aircraft for about the same  or even less than any fourth generation capability in the world," said Lorraine Martin, F35 General Manager.  "fourth generation capability" means F15 Eagle, A/F18 Super Hornet, or Saab Gripen. 
   Most of the cost improvement will come from getting better at making it.  The first F35 off the production line in 2011 took 152,000 manhours to put together.   Today that is down to 50,000 manhours.  Lockheed expects to get it down to 35,000 manhours by 2020. 
   They have been doing cost reductions, mostly in manufacturing techniques.  They changed the way they cooled the drills machining one part,  and went to die casting the rudder spar, as opposed to machining it out of a solid chunk of metal.
   They are starting production for overseas customers, Norway, Japan, and Israel.  Delivery to be much later this year and next year. 
   Pratt & Whitney announced they have a fix for the engine flexing problem.  They didn't say what it was.  This problem turned up last year, when the F35 pulls a lot of G, the engine flexes under the G load allowing the compressor blades to rub on the engine casing with disastrous results.  It caused an engine fire that heavily damaged one F35. 
   No word on the software upgrades.  Far as I know they are still waiting on the software upgrade that will allow the gun to fire.  Without it, the gun is merely ballast, it won't shoot.  Since the F35's internal missile bays only hold two air-to-air missiles, it would be nice to have the gun working for use after the missiles are gone. 

Monday, June 29, 2015

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico is making Greeky noises about not being able to pay off a massive debt.  I think $72 billion was mentioned.  They ought to just default, stiff all their creditors, like Detroit did.  Those gullible creditors deserve to loose the money because lending to places like Puerto Rico, or Greece is just plain stupid.  Let's burn 'em good, maybe they will wise up.
   The purpose of the whole financial system is to raise money for economic development, factories, oil wells, power plants, railroads, startups, launching FedEx, stuff that will make enough money to pay off the loan.  Lending to governments of any sort is not economic development.  It's just a scam that allows governments to avoid tax hikes which their citizens hate.  It's not going to make money to pay off the loan.  I have no sympathy for those "investors".  Actually they aren't investors, they are gamblers.  Watching gamblers get burned doesn't bother me a bit. 

Sunday, June 28, 2015

Beware of Greeks bearing Debts

The current EU-Greece deal expires on the 30th of June, this coming Tuesday.  The EU wants reforms in Greece leading to a balanced budget.  Which means laying off thousands of Greek government employees (apparently 25% of Greece draws government paychecks), cutting pensions to the more thousands of retired Greek government employees, and hiking taxes.  The Greeks call this "austerity" and the current Greek government was elected  on a "stop austerity" program.  After refusing the last EU offer on Friday, the Greek government is calling a referendum back in Greece about accepting the EU terms.  In short, the Greeks want to keep on spending more money than they take in and have the EU keep on giving them money to spend. 
   We don't know what is going to happen.  The Greeks have two more business days to cave in to the EU.  They might do it.  The EU may fear the turbulence that "Grexit" will cause and keep on subsidizing Greece to avoid trouble.  Or both sides may dig in their heels and the EU cuts off Greek subsidies. 
  In that case, things get really tough in Greece.  It will cause a bank run strong enough to break every Greek bank.  Right now the EU is loaning/giving Greek banks enough Euros to pay withdrawals and keep them afloat.  That may stop anytime now.  When it does, the Greek banks will have to close their doors, they don't have any Euros for depositors to withdraw.  Which means Greeks will loose whatever money they have on deposit.  The bank run is already started and the Greeks are talking about closing all their banks on Monday.
Greece will have to balance the budget, 'cause they cannot borrow money from normal financial sources.  Surely every banker and investor in the world knows how deep underwater Greece is.  In the real world there is zero chance that the Greeks can pay off their current loans, let alone any new loans.  They just don't have the money. 
Then the Greeks will have to do something to meet payroll.  Their choices are to just stop paying all or some of the people on the payroll, or to give them IOU's (aka Drachma) instead of Euros.  The IOUs aren't going to be worth nearly as much as Euros.  So everyone on the payroll takes a haircut, probably a 75% haircut. 
   Question 1:  Do the Greek voters know what they are headed for?
   Question 2:  What will happen to the rest of the Eurozone?  The Europeans (like the Economist)  foresee total disaster.  The Americans aren't paying much attention. 

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Can Education pull young men up from the Ghetto?

I have certainly heard and read plenty about the sad state of US public schools, particularly in poorer areas. I have not personally experienced it, my suburban public school, back a long time ago, was good, and I came out of it ready for a Quaker prep school.  But  where there is smoke there is fire, and by all accounts there are too many miserable public schools. 
   Be that as it may, typical hiring managers are concerned with more than the job applicant's ability to spell and do arithmetic.  They have other concerns such as:  Is this kid a druggie?  Will he do drugs on company property?  Or worse, sell drugs to my other employees?  Is this kid honest?  When something goes wrong will he tell the truth or will he lie to me?  Will he steal?  Is he trustworthy enough to put on a cash register?  Does he have an attitude that will cause trouble with my foremen or the other men on the floor?  Will his dress scare off my customers?  Does he want that job bad enough to work hard for it? 
   Dunno if US schools, even with the best of  intentions, can prepare their students for the real working world.  Seems like you need parents, community, family and friends to impart these basic qualities. 

Friday, June 26, 2015

Linux Rising

For the last week this blog has enjoyed more hits from Linux systems  (57%) than Windows systems (21%).  And vastly more hits from the Chrome browser than second place Firefox, and third place Internet Exploder.

Limitations on Free Speech, Funerals

I heard that Charleston and some other South Carolina town were passing municipal ordinances forbidding demonstrations at the up coming funerals for the victims at the AME church last week.  Excellent idea.  In civilized countries families can bury their dead in peace.  Anyone at a funeral is a mourner and should conduct themselves accordingly.  Otherwise they should not be there. 
   The Supremes don't seem to understand this.  Some four years ago they held that the "Westboro Baptist Church" must be allowed to demonstrate at the funeral of a marine killed in Afghanistan, calling the demonstration free speech.  There are some limits on free speech, and funerals are special sad occasions that should be free of disorderly ranting. 

Thursday, June 25, 2015

The Supremes vote for Obamacare

The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to uphold Obamacare, not as written, but as interpreted by the Obama adminstration, i.e. it stays in place, as it has been, probably forever.
  In one way, it's letting the work of Congress stand.  If Congress could muster the votes, it could fix Obamacare in any one of a bunch of ways.  Today's Supreme Court decision says that Congress must do the heavy lifting, the Court isn't gonna get into it for them.  Congress is deadlocked on the issue, neither side has the votes to do what it wants to do. 
   We are probably doomed to live with Obama care for ever.  Enough people get benefits from it, and it is so ideologically appealing to lefties, that I cannot visualize a future Congress changing it, much, if at all.  Obamacare is a heavy drag on the economy.  It makes employers reluctant to hire, because the health care costs are so steep.  It is a cost enhancer, and one big reason that we are still stuck in Great Depression 2.0.  We may remain stuck there forever.