The pollsters are getting tied in knots, rating candidates by their appeal to registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and registered Independents. So and so's support in the primary is reported as coming from shifty independents or true blue party members. The implication is that support from true blue party members is "better" than support from independents.
Actually, there are a huge number of democrats and republican who register as independents so that they can decide which primary is worth voting in at the last minute. In one party states like Massachusetts republicans will register as democrats to allow them to vote in the democratic primary, which is the only election that means anything. In a one party state, win the democratic primary and you are as good as elected, the Republicans don't every bother to put up candidates for most offices.
So, when I hear a pollster waxing eloquent about the "quality" of a candidate's support, or the number of independents who vote for him, I figure I am listening to a pollster who doesn't understand voters. A vote is a vote, idenpendent votes are counted just the same as true blue party votes.
The pollsters like voters who do their work for them by registering for a party. The dumbest pollster can count party registrations and from that pontificate about the outcome.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
Create a new species, then endanger it
Skiing at New Hampshire's Cannon mountain is being held up because of endangered species Bicknell's thrush. This bird is alleged to nest in wooded areas above 2500 feet.
Bicknell's thrush only became a species in 1995. Prior to 1995 it was called the Grey Cheeked Thrush. Audubon's website reports "Bicknell's thrush is not safely distinguished in the field". In other words Bicknell's thrush looks so much like a gray cheeked thrush that no one can tell them apart.
Cannon has been a top ski area since the 1930's, so it's older than Bicknell's thrush. In short, the skiers came first. Bicknell's thrush was only invented 11 years ago, the skiers have been on the trails for 70 years.
Recipe for driving people off federal lands. Invent a new species. Then declare it endangered.
Bicknell's thrush only became a species in 1995. Prior to 1995 it was called the Grey Cheeked Thrush. Audubon's website reports "Bicknell's thrush is not safely distinguished in the field". In other words Bicknell's thrush looks so much like a gray cheeked thrush that no one can tell them apart.
Cannon has been a top ski area since the 1930's, so it's older than Bicknell's thrush. In short, the skiers came first. Bicknell's thrush was only invented 11 years ago, the skiers have been on the trails for 70 years.
Recipe for driving people off federal lands. Invent a new species. Then declare it endangered.
Save Windows XP
Infoworld article includes a petition to MS to save XP from the chopping block. One study shows that XP is twice as fast as Vista. Since XP is sluggish at best, Vista must be a real turtle.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Something in the water makes Wall Street stupid.
As Wall Street stocked up on shaky subprime backed bonds, they did worry about defaults. So, they started buying default insurance ("Credit default swaps") from a little known place called ACA Financial Guarantee Corp. Business for ACA was good. They sold $69 billion worth of insurance. Trouble is, ACA only has $425 million to pay off claims. Now with all $69 billion worth of sub prime bonds getting ready to default, it just occurred to the combined financial geniuses of the Street, that (wait for it) they ain't gonna get paid.
In fact, now that the default insurance has become worthless, the biggies are writing down yet more sub prime paper.
Come to think of it, Why does a biggie like Merrill Lynch want insurance from a pipsqueak like ACA? Merill is plenty big enough to bear the risk of the occasional default. No pipsqueak insurance company has enough money to pay off a market crash, where everything defaults. So, what was Merrill thinking about when they wasted money on "insurance" that doesn't insure?
Kinda like flood insurance. The commercial insurers won't write flood insurance, 'cause when the river floods, every house gets swept away, and they know they won't be able to pay them all off. Nobody has that kind of money. A market downturn is like a flood, and nobody can pay off an entire market worth of defaults.
In fact, now that the default insurance has become worthless, the biggies are writing down yet more sub prime paper.
Come to think of it, Why does a biggie like Merrill Lynch want insurance from a pipsqueak like ACA? Merill is plenty big enough to bear the risk of the occasional default. No pipsqueak insurance company has enough money to pay off a market crash, where everything defaults. So, what was Merrill thinking about when they wasted money on "insurance" that doesn't insure?
Kinda like flood insurance. The commercial insurers won't write flood insurance, 'cause when the river floods, every house gets swept away, and they know they won't be able to pay them all off. Nobody has that kind of money. A market downturn is like a flood, and nobody can pay off an entire market worth of defaults.
Mountains of paperwork.
Upon the same mountain that used to bear the Old Man of the Mountains, there two ski areas, Cannon Mountain and Mittersill. Mittersill, started in the late 1940's, had a permit from the Forest Service to put trails and lifts onto US owned land. Later in the 1970's Mittersill went dormant and stopped running the lifts. The trails are still there, and hardy skiers have been using them, abet lightly. Now, Cannon Mountain wants to expand it's trail system and re open the old Mittersill trails. Sounds simple.
I attended a meeting last night at which a nice middle aged lady from the Forest Service spent a half an hour explaining all the paperwork that would be necessary. Lordy, there were environmental impact statements, assessments, obscure legal footwork of which no one had ever heard of, protection of a bird that no one had ever heard of, along with some odd weedy plant that even the Forest Service lady could not name. The Manhattan Project started with less paperwork than is now necessary to ski down an existing ski trail on federal land.
Environmentalists are like watermelons, green on the outside, Red on the inside.
I attended a meeting last night at which a nice middle aged lady from the Forest Service spent a half an hour explaining all the paperwork that would be necessary. Lordy, there were environmental impact statements, assessments, obscure legal footwork of which no one had ever heard of, protection of a bird that no one had ever heard of, along with some odd weedy plant that even the Forest Service lady could not name. The Manhattan Project started with less paperwork than is now necessary to ski down an existing ski trail on federal land.
Environmentalists are like watermelons, green on the outside, Red on the inside.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
GM sees brighter future (WSJ)
Strange article. The body of the article talks about cost cutting, and new union contracts, and GMAC's losses from playing in the sub prime mortgage market. Thousand of hourly job cuts,buyouts, and early retirements will realize billions of dollars of saving by 2011. The GM suits think they can cost cut the company back to profitability. Good luck Rick Wagoner.
There is a scary graph at the top of the piece, plotting GM profit or loss from 2007 back to 2000. From 2000 to 2006 the bar chart bumps up and down by a few billion a year. Make a few billion one year, loose a few billion next year. For 2007, the bar drops thru the floor with a $40 billion loss. That deep black hole was invented by GM's accountants last fall when they took $37 billion worth of "tax credits" off GM's books. A 40 billion loss in a company with a market capitalization of only $13 billion is not real accounting, it's play acting. Real companies cannot loose three times their net worth in only one year. In short this "loss" actually amounted to taking imaginary assets off the books. I'm sure the books looked a lot better in the year those imaginary assets were put on the books. In short the $40 billion loss is a correction of years of accounting jiggery pokery. Harsher critics might call it accounting fraud.
Not a single word about the new Chevy Malibu and the new Caddy CTS. The only thing that will make GM profitable ever again is good new cars that sell. Why didn't the GM people talk these cars up with the Wall St Journal people? Are GM's suits so removed from the car business that they never think about what they make? Or do the suits know these two expensively created new cars aren't going to sell? What kind of a car guy doesn't talk about new car designs? Or is it that the GM suits aren't car guys but mere bean counters?
Sell you GM stock ASAP, the General is doomed.
There is a scary graph at the top of the piece, plotting GM profit or loss from 2007 back to 2000. From 2000 to 2006 the bar chart bumps up and down by a few billion a year. Make a few billion one year, loose a few billion next year. For 2007, the bar drops thru the floor with a $40 billion loss. That deep black hole was invented by GM's accountants last fall when they took $37 billion worth of "tax credits" off GM's books. A 40 billion loss in a company with a market capitalization of only $13 billion is not real accounting, it's play acting. Real companies cannot loose three times their net worth in only one year. In short this "loss" actually amounted to taking imaginary assets off the books. I'm sure the books looked a lot better in the year those imaginary assets were put on the books. In short the $40 billion loss is a correction of years of accounting jiggery pokery. Harsher critics might call it accounting fraud.
Not a single word about the new Chevy Malibu and the new Caddy CTS. The only thing that will make GM profitable ever again is good new cars that sell. Why didn't the GM people talk these cars up with the Wall St Journal people? Are GM's suits so removed from the car business that they never think about what they make? Or do the suits know these two expensively created new cars aren't going to sell? What kind of a car guy doesn't talk about new car designs? Or is it that the GM suits aren't car guys but mere bean counters?
Sell you GM stock ASAP, the General is doomed.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Electric Trolley cars are cooler than diesel buses
The electric trolley car ("light rail") is way cooler to ride on than buses. I don't know why, but it is true. Given a choice between the bus and the trolley, every one in Boston takes the trolley. (Boston still operates both). I'm not sure why this is true, the ride is no smoother, the old fashioned trolleys were fairly noisy. The slick PCC cars from the 1930's are whisper quiet, but the ordinary trolleys had a distinctive loud gear whine and the compressor for the air brakes banged away as loudly as a jack hammer. Street running city trolleys had no speed advantage over cars or buses at rush hour. Be that as it may, trolleys are cool, buses are last resort.
From an economic standpoint buses are way cheaper than trolleys, simply because they run on the public streets. The bus operator doesn't have to buy, build, maintain, electrify, fence, and mow his right of way, the government takes care of all that. The bus operator can change his route at will without laying new track.
The only objective reason to prefer the trolley is those rails. When you board a trolley you know where it's gonna go. Whereas a bus might go anywhere, and passengers worry that they got on the wrong bus and will wind up in the wrong place.
From an economic standpoint buses are way cheaper than trolleys, simply because they run on the public streets. The bus operator doesn't have to buy, build, maintain, electrify, fence, and mow his right of way, the government takes care of all that. The bus operator can change his route at will without laying new track.
The only objective reason to prefer the trolley is those rails. When you board a trolley you know where it's gonna go. Whereas a bus might go anywhere, and passengers worry that they got on the wrong bus and will wind up in the wrong place.
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