New US government computer model claims 100 million Covid cases

Of course, the model suggests that there are a lot of "cases" out their that didn't make the patient sick enough to see a doctor, or get tested.  Personally I believe that cases of a disease, corona virus or just plain old measles ought to diagnosed, by medical personnel, not guessed at by computer modelers.  Far as I am concerned, unless patient gets sick, shows symptoms, runs a fever, we don't have a case.  Right now they are calling every false positive from testing a case, even when the patient isn't sick.  And, this kind of imagineering of the number of cases, does crazy things to the death rate.  For the same number of deaths, if you call the number of cases 100 mil, the death rate drops down to practically nothing.   Plus we know that the medics are under a lot of pressure to call every death a Corona virus death.   

   There was a study, that got published and then got retracted a day or two later, that claimed that the over all US death rate (all causes) was about the same this year as it was last year before the Corona virus hit.  Which suggests that a lot of the deaths blamed on Corona virus would have happened anyhow due to patient age and other conditions.  

Anyhow, I am taking all the Corona virus statistics with a grain of salt.  Maybe a whole tablespoon of salt.  

His Dark Materials

 They made a miniseries out of the Phillip Pullman books (Golden Compass, Subtle Knife, Amber Spyglass).  It plays on HBO and I got the first season thru Netflix.  I started on the first disc, and have watched the first two episodes so far.  It's not bad.  The landscapes and cityscapes are well done and convincing.  The daemons are well done.  I assume both are all CGI. The interior scenes, especially of Jordan College are beautiful and well done.  The airships look good.  
    They gave black actors a lot of parts in this one.  They all seem to be pretty good actors.
    It doesn't move all that fast.  After two hour long episodes we have only gotten Lyra picked up by Mrs Coulter and brought to Mrs Coulter's London place.  Lyra has just decided that Mrs Coulter means her no good and she slips out the window and runs for it.   The girl they cast for Lyra's part is really too old, too tall, and not all that cute.  The Golden Compass movie had a better young actress for Lyra's part.  
    I read the books, some years ago, so I could recognize the major characters and know their names.  The poor second string characters don't get names.  Nobody ever addresses them by name, or speaks about them and gives their name.  If you haven't read the books, you will need to pay very careful attention to the plot or you will get lost.  
   All in all, it's pretty good, I plan to watch all the episodes.  

Lotta whining, lotta bitching, Senate grills Big Tech

The senate has spend all morning grilling Big Tech, Facebook and Twitter.  Senators have complained about them.  No senator had the stones to propose any concrete fixes.  Such as using Sherman anti trust to break both of them up for being monopolies.  Break them into smaller pieces, let the pieces compete against each other in the marketplace for users and advertisers.  That will force them to stop objectionable activities such as censoring conservatives.

Smokey and the Bandit 1977 Goldie Oldie

 Burt Reynolds and Sally Fields.  This one won an Oscar surprisingly enough.  Box office was good enough to make a second one in 1980.  Lot's of great cars.  They don't make cars like that anymore.  Enjoyable mindless watch last night.  Sally Fields does a great job.  She is cute, funny, and tough enough to keep Burt Reynolds more or less in line.  Jackie Gleason makes a great redneck southern sheriff. 

Unconvincing computer expert on Fox news

 He was billed as chairman of the computer science department at University of Michigan.  It was claimed that he had been studying voting machines for 20 years.  I did not catch his name.  He claimed that the voting machines were totally secure, no way they could switch Trump votes to Biden.  Spoke in generalities.  He did not address a number of items.  Can new code be loaded into the voting machine by merely inserting a flash drive into a USB socket?  How is the machine's code patched or upgraded?  What checks are performed to insure that ALL the voting machines have received the latest code?  What prevents a hacker from changing the code in the machines?  How old are the machines in service?  Were they manufactured by Dominion Software?  Who wrote the code in the machines?  What tests did he perform on voting machines?  How many machines did he test?  Do the voting machines produce a hard copy of the final vote?  A filled out ballot?  Are the voting machines connected to the public internet?  or to a private network?  What version of Windows are the voting machines running?  Have all the Microsoft patches been applied? 

   This guy did not convince me that he really knew what he was talking about.  I spent 30 years programming computers.

Impressive pro Trump Demo going on in DC

 It's live on Fox TV right now.  It is big, both on the ground video and airborne video show really impressively large numbers of people.  They all carry flags, US flags, Trump flags, all kind of flags.  It is a peaceful demonstration.  Nobody is throwing stuff at cops, they are not setting fires, they are not looting.  That is good.  They are marching down the streets, I don't know DC well enough to recognize which streets.  This ought to make Trump's day.  Might not get him elected, but it ought to warm his heart.  If the Republicans can muster this kind of support for the Georgia run off, it ought to give us two Republican Georgia senators and a Republican senate.  Let's hope.

The beginnings of Civilization, 20,000 to 8000 BC.

 I just watched a thought providing U-Tube video.  “The beginnings of Civilization, 20,000 to 8000 BC.  Civilization, (www.utube.com/watch $ v=bQxoZsHUw) by which they (and I) mean cities, needs agriculture to feed the city dwellers.  You cannot feed even a small town by having the citizens go out and hunt deer.  Hunter gathering can feed a family, or even a number of families living in a small village, especially in a location with warm winters.  But it cannot feed a city population of perhaps 20% of the population.  Plus, the meat from hunting won’t keep where as grain, flour, will.

    Obviously they cannot start farming until the ice age glaciers melt out.  Nothing will grow when there is snow on the ground all year round.  We used to think that happened 10,000 years ago.  Lots of recent archeology has pushed that back to 20,000 years ago.  We have some (not a lot yet) of archeological evidence of some agriculture getting started way back then, 20,000 years before present.  We don’t see real cities until 10,000 years ago.  Looks like it took 10,000 years for agriculture to develop into a city supporting force.  What took so long?

   Well there are a number of technologies needed to make agriculture work.  First of all you have to figure out how to make grain (grass seed basically) edible by humans.  I cannot eat the grass seed I have in my garage for seeding the lawn; it’s mostly dried blades of grass, with very little carbs to it.  Wheat seeds are better, more carbs and less blades of grass.  The milling process, using mill stones, separates the dried blades of grass and grinds the carb part of the seed into flour.   Once we have flour we can brew beer, attractive because of the alcohol content and containing a fair amount of nourishment.  Today they sell Bud Light to the many customers who don’t want to gain weight.  More complex is learning how to get bread dough to rise, and figuring out that baking the risen dough yields tasty bread.  That might have taken a few thousand years. 

   Then we need some tools to till the soil.  I suppose with enough hard labor you can till a small field with nothing better than a digging stick, but I would not like to depend upon it.  To make a hoe takes metal.  To make a primitive plow (an ard they are called) needs a small amount of metal.  I suppose you can harvest the grain with a flint sickle but I think a metal one will work better.  Then you have to store the harvest in something.  Baskets, pots, or bags.  All of these had not been invented 20,000 years ago.  Pots only turn up 9000 years ago.  

   And then there is animal husbandry, which must have started with sheep and goats and pigs, with cows coming later.  Which needs shepherds and swineherds and goatherds to keep the stock on the farm.  And sheep dogs.  Must have taken generations to breed up sheep dogs from the hunting dogs and watch dogs.

We have evidence of serious irregularities

 That 6000 vote glitch in Michigan, where the Dominion Voting Systems software  turned 6000 votes for Trump into 6000 votes for Biden.  That Dominion Software program is used in every county in Michigan and in 30 other states.   I think some serious checking up everywhere that program is used is in order.  It would only take a few more 6000 vote glitches to elect Trump. 

Too much automation

 Michigan just discovered that election automation software furnished to the state by  Dominion Voting Systems  turned 6000 votes for Trump into 6000 votes for Biden.  Wow.  Did Michigan do any testing of this software before putting it into service?  And, more to the point, why are they using software to add up all the votes?  Surely this could be done the old fashioned way with pencil and paper?  Like we do in New Hampshire.

  

International Space Station (ISS) has been operational for 20 years now.

 Nice long piece in Aviation Week about the  history of ISS.  It got started under Ronald Reagan back in 1984, 36 years ago.  At the time the project was viewed as US-Russia cooperation deal intended to generate some friendship between the two countries.  And the Russians were allocated some of the early important and expensive modules, on the theory it would keep them out of trouble.  The original planning was to use the US Space Shuttle to lift the bigger chunks into orbit.  Good thing we got that part done before a second disaster grounded the Shuttle fleet for good.  As it was the Shuttles flew 37 missions to the ISS.  

   The major bit of information we learned from operating ISS is the bad effects of long term living in zero G.  As it was, the ISS astronauts were required to exercise like crazy every day, and even with all this effort, they all returned to earth seriously weakened.  They all recovered after return to Earth, but thinking about a crew returning from a long mission too weak to even fasten their seat belts is worrisome, to put it mildly.  Any long duration space missions, like to Mars or the asteroid belt will need space craft that supply artificial gravity.  Presumable this will be done with hoop shaped sections that rotate to provide centrifugal force as a substitute for gravity.

If they block you on Facebook or Twitter...

Start a blog instead.  They aren't censoring them, yet.  

TV is unGuided

 

TV Guide website is confused. I click on it and it comes up with the generic country wide menu, listing network names but no channel numbers. So I go thru the set your location razzle dazzle and get some channel numbers for Spectrum cable. Then it says you gotta login in order to save your location. So I have a username and a password. And then it asks for my email address. And I hit login and draw an error message "That email is in use". So it won't remember my location. It didn't used to be this way. Anyone have better luck with it?