Aviation Week reports NASA insiders are pushing for a manned trip to the asteroid belt, or the Lagrange points before doing a lunar base. Such a mission does not require a lander, a vessel with the rocket power to soft land and then lift off again. Such a lander does not exist now, and might take halfway to forever to develop. An asteroid mission only requires a space craft large enough for a years long mission. It has to carry enough food, water, and air for the round trip. Going to a near earth orbit asteroid would reduce the travel time to a matter of months, as opposed to years for a mission to the Martian moons, or the main asteroid belt.
Such a mission would create the kind of excitement the Apollo missions enjoyed.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Barack Obama remembers Willy Horton
Back in 1988, George Bush ran a devastating TV ad against Mike Dukakis. The ad accused then governor Dukakis of paroling/pardoning/letting off the hook, an ugly con named Willy Horton who proceeded to commit some ghastly crime while out of stir. The ad was effective, and Dukakis made the mistake of not replying to it. Silence gives assent. Dukakis should have said something. He could have denied that it happened, that it was all the parole board's fault, it didn't happen on his watch, it was a terrible mistake what has been corrected, whatever. Instead he said nothing in public and the ad sank in. Voters expect mud to be thrown in an election. But they also expect the victims to fight back. The mud doesn't stick if the target denies it. If the target says nothing after being slimed, the voters begin to think there must be something to the charge.
The Clintons have thrown a bit of mud at Obama, and Obama has very properly denied the charges and politely accused the Clintons of lying. Obama remembers Willy Horton and remembers that silence gives assent.
The newsies are delighted, and have instant replayed the mud slinging to the point of nausea among us political junkies. (only true political junkies bother to watch) And pontificated about how terrible it is and how the candidates are pulling the campaign down to unspeakable issues like race and sex.
Malarkey. This is a spirited, and largely positive campaign that has galvanized the electorate.
Just look at the primary turnout figures.
The Clintons have thrown a bit of mud at Obama, and Obama has very properly denied the charges and politely accused the Clintons of lying. Obama remembers Willy Horton and remembers that silence gives assent.
The newsies are delighted, and have instant replayed the mud slinging to the point of nausea among us political junkies. (only true political junkies bother to watch) And pontificated about how terrible it is and how the candidates are pulling the campaign down to unspeakable issues like race and sex.
Malarkey. This is a spirited, and largely positive campaign that has galvanized the electorate.
Just look at the primary turnout figures.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
P51 Mustang fighter flies again
South Korea has been developing a turbo prop trainer/light attack aircraft since 1980. It's an aircraft type with considerable promise. Lighter, cheaper, and with more endurance than jets or attack choppers like F16 or Apache, it still carries enough firepower to be very useful against Al Quada type enemies. It can carry a pair or 500 pound bombs, 76 rockets in pods, or four .50 cal machine guns, any of which can do serious damage. With air support like that on call, platoons can go deep into Indian country and fear no evil.
The Koreans have had some development problems over the years. The Americans got stuffy about furnishing American parts for aircraft sold to Indonesia. A prototype was lost after both ejection seats accidentally ejected the crew in flight. A deal with Columbia fell thru after the Columbians asked from a night attack version loaded up with enough avionics to create a propeller drive F-22. Despite these obstacles, Korean Aerospace Industries has managed to deliver 105 aircraft to the South Korean Air Force, so the aircraft is a reality, rather than aerospace vaporware.
The Koreans have had some development problems over the years. The Americans got stuffy about furnishing American parts for aircraft sold to Indonesia. A prototype was lost after both ejection seats accidentally ejected the crew in flight. A deal with Columbia fell thru after the Columbians asked from a night attack version loaded up with enough avionics to create a propeller drive F-22. Despite these obstacles, Korean Aerospace Industries has managed to deliver 105 aircraft to the South Korean Air Force, so the aircraft is a reality, rather than aerospace vaporware.
So who is an Independant, really?
The pollsters are getting tied in knots, rating candidates by their appeal to registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and registered Independents. So and so's support in the primary is reported as coming from shifty independents or true blue party members. The implication is that support from true blue party members is "better" than support from independents.
Actually, there are a huge number of democrats and republican who register as independents so that they can decide which primary is worth voting in at the last minute. In one party states like Massachusetts republicans will register as democrats to allow them to vote in the democratic primary, which is the only election that means anything. In a one party state, win the democratic primary and you are as good as elected, the Republicans don't every bother to put up candidates for most offices.
So, when I hear a pollster waxing eloquent about the "quality" of a candidate's support, or the number of independents who vote for him, I figure I am listening to a pollster who doesn't understand voters. A vote is a vote, idenpendent votes are counted just the same as true blue party votes.
The pollsters like voters who do their work for them by registering for a party. The dumbest pollster can count party registrations and from that pontificate about the outcome.
Actually, there are a huge number of democrats and republican who register as independents so that they can decide which primary is worth voting in at the last minute. In one party states like Massachusetts republicans will register as democrats to allow them to vote in the democratic primary, which is the only election that means anything. In a one party state, win the democratic primary and you are as good as elected, the Republicans don't every bother to put up candidates for most offices.
So, when I hear a pollster waxing eloquent about the "quality" of a candidate's support, or the number of independents who vote for him, I figure I am listening to a pollster who doesn't understand voters. A vote is a vote, idenpendent votes are counted just the same as true blue party votes.
The pollsters like voters who do their work for them by registering for a party. The dumbest pollster can count party registrations and from that pontificate about the outcome.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Create a new species, then endanger it
Skiing at New Hampshire's Cannon mountain is being held up because of endangered species Bicknell's thrush. This bird is alleged to nest in wooded areas above 2500 feet.
Bicknell's thrush only became a species in 1995. Prior to 1995 it was called the Grey Cheeked Thrush. Audubon's website reports "Bicknell's thrush is not safely distinguished in the field". In other words Bicknell's thrush looks so much like a gray cheeked thrush that no one can tell them apart.
Cannon has been a top ski area since the 1930's, so it's older than Bicknell's thrush. In short, the skiers came first. Bicknell's thrush was only invented 11 years ago, the skiers have been on the trails for 70 years.
Recipe for driving people off federal lands. Invent a new species. Then declare it endangered.
Bicknell's thrush only became a species in 1995. Prior to 1995 it was called the Grey Cheeked Thrush. Audubon's website reports "Bicknell's thrush is not safely distinguished in the field". In other words Bicknell's thrush looks so much like a gray cheeked thrush that no one can tell them apart.
Cannon has been a top ski area since the 1930's, so it's older than Bicknell's thrush. In short, the skiers came first. Bicknell's thrush was only invented 11 years ago, the skiers have been on the trails for 70 years.
Recipe for driving people off federal lands. Invent a new species. Then declare it endangered.
Save Windows XP
Infoworld article includes a petition to MS to save XP from the chopping block. One study shows that XP is twice as fast as Vista. Since XP is sluggish at best, Vista must be a real turtle.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Something in the water makes Wall Street stupid.
As Wall Street stocked up on shaky subprime backed bonds, they did worry about defaults. So, they started buying default insurance ("Credit default swaps") from a little known place called ACA Financial Guarantee Corp. Business for ACA was good. They sold $69 billion worth of insurance. Trouble is, ACA only has $425 million to pay off claims. Now with all $69 billion worth of sub prime bonds getting ready to default, it just occurred to the combined financial geniuses of the Street, that (wait for it) they ain't gonna get paid.
In fact, now that the default insurance has become worthless, the biggies are writing down yet more sub prime paper.
Come to think of it, Why does a biggie like Merrill Lynch want insurance from a pipsqueak like ACA? Merill is plenty big enough to bear the risk of the occasional default. No pipsqueak insurance company has enough money to pay off a market crash, where everything defaults. So, what was Merrill thinking about when they wasted money on "insurance" that doesn't insure?
Kinda like flood insurance. The commercial insurers won't write flood insurance, 'cause when the river floods, every house gets swept away, and they know they won't be able to pay them all off. Nobody has that kind of money. A market downturn is like a flood, and nobody can pay off an entire market worth of defaults.
In fact, now that the default insurance has become worthless, the biggies are writing down yet more sub prime paper.
Come to think of it, Why does a biggie like Merrill Lynch want insurance from a pipsqueak like ACA? Merill is plenty big enough to bear the risk of the occasional default. No pipsqueak insurance company has enough money to pay off a market crash, where everything defaults. So, what was Merrill thinking about when they wasted money on "insurance" that doesn't insure?
Kinda like flood insurance. The commercial insurers won't write flood insurance, 'cause when the river floods, every house gets swept away, and they know they won't be able to pay them all off. Nobody has that kind of money. A market downturn is like a flood, and nobody can pay off an entire market worth of defaults.
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