The media, the greens, the Democrats, the presidential candidates, and everyone else is taking it seriously. The Senate is debating a "close down every smokestack" bill right now.
There are a number of questions voters ought to ask them selves. For instance, is the world really warming up?
To answer this question, you want to look at real measurable data, like historical temperature records or ice cores. Computer models don't mean much. All the computers do is solve mathematical equations and the answers are no better than the equations and data fed into them. The computer adds nothing to the process, scientists could solve the equations by hand with a slide rule. Using a computer makes the results seem more true, but with or without computer all we have is a theory. Science demands that theories be backed up with real observations or experiments. Theory unsupported by observations is mere speculation. It might be true, it might not be true, but until supported by real data, it's just a theory.
The most obvious data is records of temperature, made with thermometers, going back as far as the records go. That's less than three hundred years. Fahrenheit didn't invent his thermometer until 1724. A Scientific American article some years ago dug up every temperature reading in existence and tried to find a warming trend in that mountain of data. The article proceeded to explain the corrections they had to apply to the data. For instance, as vast cities grew up around historical weather stations, the temperature readings will rise, because cities covered with black asphalt roads, black asphalt roofs, lacking green trees, are significantly hotter than the surrounding country side. In sailing ship days, sea temperature was measured by heaving a canvas bucket overside, hauling the bucket of seawater up on deck, and dropping a thermometer into it. Steamers take in seawater to cool the engines, and the thermometer is permanently mounted in the cold water intake. The canvas bucket sitting on deck would warm up slightly before the thermometer reading could be taken. The sailing ship temperature readings were corrected downward a fraction of a degree to compensate. After much more correcting and data crunching the article concluded that yes, the earth had warmed up slightly. The amount of warming was smaller than the various corrections applied to the raw data.
Translation. The amount of global warming over the past three hundred years is too small to reliably observe with a thermometer.
Going back further, we have historical records of things like the start of the grape harvest, extent of Alpine glaciers, date of freezing of seaports, first day of spring planting, first snow of winter, and so on. Looking at this historical data suggests the existence of a medieval warm period centered in the 11th and 12th centuries and a little ice age from mid 15th century until the late 18th century. The medieval warm period coincides with the high middle ages, harvests were good, life was pleasant. In the depths of the little ice age it was so cold that the River Thames froze hard enough to conduct ice fairs and markets on the river ice. That doesn't happen today. The Viking colonies in Greenland failed at the onset of the little ice age.
Translation: Historical data suggests that the world has been both warmer and cooler than today, within historical times. The little ice age only ended two hundred years ago, so some warming is expected as we come out of it.
Then we have longer term evidence from ice cores. Quite a few have been taken and analyzed. The results are equivocal, some experts see global warming in the ice cores, others don't. Not being an experienced reader of ice cores myself, all I can go on is what the experts say, and right now the experts are arguing with each other.
Finally I have seen some very dramatic satellite photos of polar ice caps. One pair of photos shows a dramatic shrinkage of the Arctic ice cap over the last dozen years. I'd like to see a few more photos just to make sure we aren't seeing summer vs winter or just a short warm spell, but the two selected photos are impressive.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Whither Hillary?
This email came in this morning:
Dear David,
Over the course of this campaign, I have seen the promise of America in your courage and character, your energy and ingenuity, and your compassion and faith.
Your spirit has inspired me every day in this race. While I traveled this country talking about how I wanted to help you -- time and again, you reached out to help me. To grab my hand or grip my arm, to look me in my eyes and tell me, don’t quit, keep fighting, stay in this race for us. There were days when I had strength enough for the both of us -- and on the days I didn't, I leaned on you.
This has always been your campaign, and tonight, there's no one I want to hear from more than you. I hope you're as proud as I am of what we've done and that you'll take a moment to share your thoughts with me now at my website.
I want to congratulate Senator Obama and his supporters on the extraordinary race that they have run. Senator Obama has inspired so many Americans to care about politics and empowered so many more to get involved, and our party and our democracy are stronger and more vibrant as a result.
Whatever path I travel next, I promise I will keep faith with you and everyone I have met across this good and great country. There is no possible way to thank you enough for everything you have done throughout this primary season, and you will always be in my heart.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
It isn't quite a concession speech, but it is close to one.
Dear David,
Over the course of this campaign, I have seen the promise of America in your courage and character, your energy and ingenuity, and your compassion and faith.
Your spirit has inspired me every day in this race. While I traveled this country talking about how I wanted to help you -- time and again, you reached out to help me. To grab my hand or grip my arm, to look me in my eyes and tell me, don’t quit, keep fighting, stay in this race for us. There were days when I had strength enough for the both of us -- and on the days I didn't, I leaned on you.
This has always been your campaign, and tonight, there's no one I want to hear from more than you. I hope you're as proud as I am of what we've done and that you'll take a moment to share your thoughts with me now at my website.
I want to congratulate Senator Obama and his supporters on the extraordinary race that they have run. Senator Obama has inspired so many Americans to care about politics and empowered so many more to get involved, and our party and our democracy are stronger and more vibrant as a result.
Whatever path I travel next, I promise I will keep faith with you and everyone I have met across this good and great country. There is no possible way to thank you enough for everything you have done throughout this primary season, and you will always be in my heart.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
It isn't quite a concession speech, but it is close to one.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Heavy Sour is cheaper than Light Sweet
The outrageous crude oil prices quoted on the TV news are not the whole story. The TV price is the price for the best grades of crude oil, thin (light) and low sulphur (sweet). The lower grade thick and sticky (heavy) and high sulphur (sour) sells for a third less than the premium grade. Heavy and sour crude can be refined to gasoline and diesel, but only state of the art modern refineries can do it. Plenty of older off shore refineries cannot handle heavy sour crude at all. Difficult as heavy sour crude is to refine, it's still enormously easier than refining oil shale or tar sands. Or making liquid fuels from coal.
If we had two or three more big refineries turning cheap plentiful low grade crude into gasoline and heating oil it would actually bring the outrageous prices down.
The US hasn't built a new refinery in decades 'cause of the NIMBY problem. NIMBY's buy gasoline and heating oil just like ordinary people. They just want the refinery located in some one else's back yard. Public spirited they are. Needless to say, the US no longer has enough refinery capacity to make all the gasoline and heating oil we need and is relying on off shore refineries to make up the short fall.
The US ought to build enough domestic refineries to satisfy domestic needs, and even do some export business. While we are at it, make the new refineries capable of handling the lowest grade crude on the planet. Refinery construction money spent in the US does more for the US economy than the same money spent in Aruba.
The Supreme Court recently ruled taking property by eminent domain for mere economic development purposes IS constitutional (the Kelo decision) . Take advantage of that. Pass a law declaring refineries to be a national security matter, and grant a major oil company eminent domain powers to take land for a new refinery. Declare that the small amount of land needed for a few refineries won't endanger any species. Stop the talking and the hand wringing and get on with it. Refineries take years to build, we need to start now.
Or do you like the idea of $5 a gallon?
If we had two or three more big refineries turning cheap plentiful low grade crude into gasoline and heating oil it would actually bring the outrageous prices down.
The US hasn't built a new refinery in decades 'cause of the NIMBY problem. NIMBY's buy gasoline and heating oil just like ordinary people. They just want the refinery located in some one else's back yard. Public spirited they are. Needless to say, the US no longer has enough refinery capacity to make all the gasoline and heating oil we need and is relying on off shore refineries to make up the short fall.
The US ought to build enough domestic refineries to satisfy domestic needs, and even do some export business. While we are at it, make the new refineries capable of handling the lowest grade crude on the planet. Refinery construction money spent in the US does more for the US economy than the same money spent in Aruba.
The Supreme Court recently ruled taking property by eminent domain for mere economic development purposes IS constitutional (the Kelo decision) . Take advantage of that. Pass a law declaring refineries to be a national security matter, and grant a major oil company eminent domain powers to take land for a new refinery. Declare that the small amount of land needed for a few refineries won't endanger any species. Stop the talking and the hand wringing and get on with it. Refineries take years to build, we need to start now.
Or do you like the idea of $5 a gallon?
Pre exiting conditions? Hi risk pool for you.
Once you get sick, the health insurers want to dump you. Insurers make money by depositing premiums paid by well people (or well people's employers). They loose money paying doctor and hospital bills. Dropping sick people, or refusing to insure sick people, does good things for insurance company profits.
More fair would be a law requiring insurance companies to sell their policies to all comers at the same price. The sick people are not responsible for their illness, they are unlucky. They encountered a virus, a microbe, a bullet, or some dangerous machinery. Or they inherited a genetic weakness, also a matter of luck. We, as a society, ought to give the unlucky sick people the same shot at health care as the lucky, and well, majority. Insurance is supposed to share the risk, the majority who do not have losses pay for the minority who do.
The insurance companies will oppose this law. Harry and Louse will make a TV come back. Insurers are cherry picking, offering low rates to low risk people to build market share, charging high rates, or refusing to insure, high risk people to keep the low rates low. Most health insurance is company paid insurance, which means the insured is well enough to hold a job, and hence is low risk.
The law ought to require insurers to sell policies to the public at the same price they sell them to big corporations. Employees get a better health deal than the self employed, the small business owners, the professionals, the contractors and consultants. The corporation gets a better price on the insurance, and pays for it with pretax dollars. It's free to the employee. The self employed have to pay more, get no tax break, and pay for it out of pocket.
More fair would be a law requiring insurance companies to sell their policies to all comers at the same price. The sick people are not responsible for their illness, they are unlucky. They encountered a virus, a microbe, a bullet, or some dangerous machinery. Or they inherited a genetic weakness, also a matter of luck. We, as a society, ought to give the unlucky sick people the same shot at health care as the lucky, and well, majority. Insurance is supposed to share the risk, the majority who do not have losses pay for the minority who do.
The insurance companies will oppose this law. Harry and Louse will make a TV come back. Insurers are cherry picking, offering low rates to low risk people to build market share, charging high rates, or refusing to insure, high risk people to keep the low rates low. Most health insurance is company paid insurance, which means the insured is well enough to hold a job, and hence is low risk.
The law ought to require insurers to sell policies to the public at the same price they sell them to big corporations. Employees get a better health deal than the self employed, the small business owners, the professionals, the contractors and consultants. The corporation gets a better price on the insurance, and pays for it with pretax dollars. It's free to the employee. The self employed have to pay more, get no tax break, and pay for it out of pocket.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Obame vs McCain, Style versus Substance
Watched Obama and McCain on Fox News this morning. McCain is advocating real policies, like cutting off gasoline imports to Iran. Obama is denouncing McCain as "the Bush third term". McCain is telling us what he would do if elected. What is Obama telling us, other than he doesn't like President Bush?
Basement train layout. First track down
Milestone reached in layout construction, I put down the first lengths of flex track last night. All the benchwork for the round-the-walls layout is up. Made the shelf brackets, the plywood tables, found the studs, sank the drywall screws thru the brackets into studs. Shelves made up from 1/2" plywood and 1*4 lumber, glued, sanded, painted to match the room. A layer of 2 inch blue foam cut to fit the shelves, beveled, and stuck down with latex caulk. Came out level, all way round the room, and doesn't sag anywhere. Awesome.
I wanted roadbed that would take track nails, and that means wood. Plywood is too hard, the glue layers will bend the track nails. Cork is too soft, the track nails pull out.
To get 1/4" wood for the roadbed, the newly acquired Craigslist bandsaw was able to resaw ordinary 3/4 inch pine into 1/4 inch slabs. Used a sharp blade, widest the machine will accept (1/2" for my saw). Made a fence from 3/4" plywood and c-clamped it to the bandsaw table. Feed slowly. A new blade will cut straight without drift. Straight and standard curves are simple to cut. For the fancier trackwork, easements on curves, turnouts and such, lay out the track full scale on poster board. Then cut the track shape out with sissors and use as a template.
Once cut, bevel the edges with a router, mounted in a table. Made my router table up from scrap plywood and except for amplifying the scream of the router, works well. Stick the newly made roadbed down with PL300 Foamboard adhesive. $2.99 a tube at the hardware store, and it says "Foamboard compatible" right on the tube. You get 10-15 minutes of working time, and then it needs over night to harden. Weighted the roadbed down with the usual assortment of heavy objects from the shop Paint cans, tool boxes, vise, etc.
Once dry, a sharp plane will level the joints between the pieces of road bed. I decided against using the belt sander 'cause it cuts awful fast, and throws sawdust everywhere.
Started laying track at the turnouts. Used 1/2" twist drill to bore a hole for the under table switch machine (Tortoise) operating rod. The twist drill makes a clean hole thru the pine road bed, the foam subroadbed and the plywood foam backing. I don't recommend a spade bit for this trick. Since the turnouts need to be accurately centered over the operating rod hole, nail them down first and cut the rest of the track to fit. Pine roadbed loves track nails, I can push them in with long nose pliers and they stay down.
At this rate, I might be able to run a train in a week or so.
I wanted roadbed that would take track nails, and that means wood. Plywood is too hard, the glue layers will bend the track nails. Cork is too soft, the track nails pull out.
To get 1/4" wood for the roadbed, the newly acquired Craigslist bandsaw was able to resaw ordinary 3/4 inch pine into 1/4 inch slabs. Used a sharp blade, widest the machine will accept (1/2" for my saw). Made a fence from 3/4" plywood and c-clamped it to the bandsaw table. Feed slowly. A new blade will cut straight without drift. Straight and standard curves are simple to cut. For the fancier trackwork, easements on curves, turnouts and such, lay out the track full scale on poster board. Then cut the track shape out with sissors and use as a template.
Once cut, bevel the edges with a router, mounted in a table. Made my router table up from scrap plywood and except for amplifying the scream of the router, works well. Stick the newly made roadbed down with PL300 Foamboard adhesive. $2.99 a tube at the hardware store, and it says "Foamboard compatible" right on the tube. You get 10-15 minutes of working time, and then it needs over night to harden. Weighted the roadbed down with the usual assortment of heavy objects from the shop Paint cans, tool boxes, vise, etc.
Once dry, a sharp plane will level the joints between the pieces of road bed. I decided against using the belt sander 'cause it cuts awful fast, and throws sawdust everywhere.
Started laying track at the turnouts. Used 1/2" twist drill to bore a hole for the under table switch machine (Tortoise) operating rod. The twist drill makes a clean hole thru the pine road bed, the foam subroadbed and the plywood foam backing. I don't recommend a spade bit for this trick. Since the turnouts need to be accurately centered over the operating rod hole, nail them down first and cut the rest of the track to fit. Pine roadbed loves track nails, I can push them in with long nose pliers and they stay down.
At this rate, I might be able to run a train in a week or so.
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