Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Fix the fuel shortage, Drill, Its the American way

We have an oil shortage, every one agrees on that. The traditional American answer to this sort of problem is to fix it. We consume 20 million barrels per day. Reserves in Alaska and off shore are estimated in the billions of barrels. Enough to fuel our vehicles and heat our houses for generations. So why not do the obvious thing and drill for oil?
The tradition of America is to press on, and fix the problem. We have been doing this since the Revolution. Got a problem with British men '0 war blockading New York? Invent an submarine with 18th century technology and go out to sink them. Got a rebel ironclad out sinking the Union fleet? Get plans for an even more advanced ironclad from the greatest naval architect of the age and rush a vessel into action in 90 days from keel laying to combat on the Chesapeake. Want to keep California in the Union? Lay a steam railroad clear across the continent. And then dig a canal across Panama. Want to stop German subs from sinking allied ships? Lay a minefield clean across the North Sea from Scotland to Norway. Got implacable Nazi and Facist enemies? Invent a superweapon so advanced that it wasn't even in science fiction. Need to convince the world that democratic capitalism is the way to fly? Build a moon rocket and send men to the moon.
In America, when we have a problem, we fix it. We have a very simple problem now, not enough oil. So lets get cracking and fix it. We need to drill off shore, drill in Alaska, develop oil shale and get on with it.
All the "alternate energy" in the world won't fuel my car or heat my house.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Winning Iraq is bad for McCain?

I heard a couple a Sunday pundits say this. General Petraeus is thinking about (not committed to yet, but thinking about) sending more troops home 'cause things are getting better in Iraq. McCain didn't, (and isn't going to) look this gift horse in the teeth. Everyone wants the war over and the troops home as soon as possible.
The pundits take on this? "Now that McCain is talking about bringing troops home there is no difference between him and Obama." They didn't mention the little matter of who was right on the surge, which even the NY Times now admits, won the war. McCain pushed for the surge while Obama spoke against it.
Take your pick for commander in chief.

Consumer spending keeps the economy going?

They say it every day, consumer spending, consumer confidence, retail sales and economic stimulus checks are the backbone of the economy. If consumers stop consuming the great depression comes out of the closet and eats us all. Scary.
Particularly as you can get most necessities of life, save food, at yard sales and thrift stores for pennies on the dollar. If everyone started doing this, (or just postponing the purchase of new stuff) we could see a big drop in consumer spending. Me, I have acquired a band saw, a VCR, a stereo receiver, a chandelier, wall sconces, tableware, clothes, a Minolta 35mm camera, lots of books and videos, lumber, skis, and hand tools in just the last two years. Satisfying that urge to buy stuff for very little money.
Can the economy withstand the shock if everyone did it?

Monday, July 28, 2008

Dawn over Marblehead

The New York Times finally admits things are getting better in Iraq.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

The world according to Sam "Eyebrows" Donaldson

"The mortgage crisis isn't caused by Fanny and Freddie, it's all those low life salesmen pushing unaffordable mortgages on poor people who don't know any better" said Sam on the ABC Sunday pundit show.
This is the long time TV newsie, bane of Republican presidents, talking. Talking through his hat. Only because Fanny and Freddie and some brain dead brokerage houses buy toxic waste mortgages do the low life salesmen bother to sell them.
When a borrower defaults on his mortgage the lender takes a big loss. Repossessing the house doesn't help the lender. They won't be able to sell it either. Borrowers with more than two brain cells firing will attempt to sell the house before giving it to the bank. The banks only foreclose on the houses that won't sell. But, if the lender has sold the mortgage to Fanny or Freddie or a brokerage house, he doesn't care, he doesn't own it anymore. The low life salesmen only exist because there are bigger suckers (Fanny, Freddie and the brokerages) out there. Turn them off and mortgage lending (and house prices) will return to reality.
When Sam blames lowlife salesmen instead of the real villains, it shows how ignorant the newsies are.

Speculation Regulation?

The details and language of the proposed bill are obscure, so we don't really know what will happen if they do pass it. But, will it work? Or will the speculators, day traders, and buyers merely move to a friendlier overseas market? London or Dubai or Tokyo or wherever. The United States isn't the only commodities market in the world.
Remember Sarbanes-Oxley? It tightened up corporate governance and finance and added a terrible load of paperwork. Since Sarbox, new public offerings of stock and merger/acquisition activity left Wall St and settled down in London.
Can you say "shoot yourself in the foot"?

Saturday, July 26, 2008

After a $5 trillion bailout, do we need Fanny&Freddie any more?

The rationale for Fanny and Freddie is they can borrow money more cheaply than banks can. The downside to Fanny and Freddie is when they blow it, we taxpayers take one helluva hit. We could go back to financing houses the old fashioned way, with bank depositors money. Of course for that to work, banks would have to pay decent interest on savings deposits, which they don't do anymore.
Nowadays, to get decent interest, investors have to go thru Wall St whiz kids, who take their money and buy weird bonds that put money into banks to make mortgages with. And sometimes the weird bonds don't pay off. In olden times investors simply deposited their money in a reliable bank. We could go back to that. It would put a lot of Wall St whiz kids out of work, but they could get real jobs in sales, manufacturing and new product design. Finance isn't a real job, it's parasitic.
For 6% mortgages the banks could pay depositors 5% interest. For the depositors it's good money, as good as they get on "mortgage backed securities", and with FDIC protection to boot. Unlike subprime mortgage backed securities.
So, why not rein in Fanny & Freddie? Prohibit them from buying anything but real mortgages, no mortgage backed securities. Set a limit on their liabilities, about equal to their current ones. Demand they raise capital equal to 5% of outstanding liabilities before they can take on any more debt. Insist upon the borrowers putting up 5% of property value. Insist that the borrowers live on the property. Each borrower gets only ONE mortgage on ONE property. Don't do mortgages on McMansions. Lower the mortgage limit to $500,000, any house costing more is a luxury house and fat cat buyers will have to get a private bank mortgage. Appraise each property with in-house appraisers who have to personally sign the appraisal. Fire them when they inflate the value of any property. Never do a mortgage for more than the appraised value. Prohibit them from making campaign contributions (aka bribes) to elected officials. Limit salary and bonus to less than $1 million a year for senior management/every employee. Prohibit payment to consultants for anything.