Saturday, July 30, 2011

The Republicans voted a debt hike thru

Now it's the democrats turn. Despite a lot of democratic whining, the House bill doesn't cut much, the cuts are fake cuts, and the balanced budget requirement is popular with all the voters. If the democratic Senate and the democratic president shut the government down, the bade vibes ought to accrue to the democrats.
Also amusing is seeing Barney Frank, the man who gave us Great Depression 2.0, arguing that a downgrade of US debt by the Wall St rating firms doesn't mean anything.

Friday, July 29, 2011

They vote their districts

Elected officials, US reps, State reps, Senators, selectmen, usually vote the way their district wants them too. These guys all want to get re-elected, and the way to do that is to vote the way their district wants.
On issues where the the district doesn't care, the rep can vote the way he likes, or trade his vote. On issues where the district cares, the rep has much less freedom. For instance, my district (Northern NH) doesn't care much about Gulf of Mexico oil drilling, immigration, or farm subsidies. This means our US rep, good old Charlie Bass, can, on these issues, trade his vote pretty much at will and we voters back in the district don't care much. On the other hand this district cares a lot about taxes, fuel prices, and jobs. On these issues Charlie has no discretion at all. Should he deviate from the district line, it will cost him in November and he knows it. We all have email and Cornerstone, the Tea Party and a bunch of others make sure we get the word about how Charlie voted on the stuff we care about.
Recently as the US economy has worsened and more voters find them selves out of work, the districts begin to care about a lot of things that they didn't use to give a hoot about. Which restricts the liberty of their reps to wheel and deal. Which makes it harder to get things like tonight's debt limit bill thru the Congress. Speaker Boehner is to be commended for lining up the votes to pass his debt limit hike bill this evening, it must have been hard.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Credit default swaps not saving Greek investors

The infamous credit default swap is not saving "investors" (aka speculators) in Greek debt. The Greeks are broke and will not be able to pay off their debts. Everyone knows this, and has known it for a long time. Desperate Greeks are offering 8,9,10 percent interest, which is a helova lot more then you get for investing in US treasuries. So a number of gullible Euro banks have been buying Greek debt and hedging the risk by purchasing "credit default swaps" (CDS) on the Greek debt. A "credit default swap" is like insurance, an equally gullible bank or insurance company offers a CDS which works like this. You pay me a hefty premium up front, and if the Greeks default, I'll pay you what the Greeks owe you.
With connivance of the EU central bank, the Greek debt holders are being coerced into "extending" the maturity of their Greek bonds and accepting less interest. In short, the Greeks don't pay, and they cut the interest rate. The lucky gullible investors find that the CDS won't pay off until the rating agencies (Standard & Poor and Moody) declares the Greeks in default. So far, the rating agencies are claiming the Greeks aren't defaulting, so the CDS's aren't paying off even as the investors are getting a haircut.
All is not bad. Investors should not be pouring valuable capital down the drain by investing in Greek debt, they ought to be investing in things that make money and provide jobs. Having the gullible investors who thought they could reap high interest risk free get skinned will wise up the rest of the bunch.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The Debt limit crisis is mostly smoke & mirrors

Some things to keep in mind as the posturing goes on.
1. All the numbers are for 10 year savings. Which means they are malarkey. Even if this year's Congress cuts something down, next year's Congress can push it right back up where it used to be. And if the cut was to a juicy piece of pork, you can bet it will be added back in next year. Plus, predictions of the Federal budget for the next ten years cannot take into account wars, economic depressions, and technological change. In the last ten years we had 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Prius, fracking, and Great Depression 2.0. What bad news lies in wait for us in the next ten years? The debate would be more honest if we kept the projections to just next year.
2. The budget cuts are likely to be fake cuts. A real cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it got last year. A fake cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it asked for. Our well educated and un biased newsies cannot tell the difference between a fake cut and a real cut.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The Norway shooter

I hear attempts from left and right wing nutcases to blame the Norway shooter on political ideology. This is revolting.
The Norway shooter was a homicidal maniac (by definition) who took out his internal devils on 68 young people at a summer camp. Politics has nothing to do with it. Homicidal maniacs don't have politics, they have psychoses.

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FAA authorization?

Lost in the sound and fury over the debt limit is an interesting sidelight. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorization ran out last Friday. There was a dispute over $16 million in funding for "rural airports" and unionization of federal workers. The TV newsies did not say just who was in favor of what, but we can guess. Any how no compromise was reached and the authorization ran out.
So the FAA furloughed 4000 bureaucrats. The air traffic controllers were classified as "essential personnel" so they are on the job and the planes are flying. The Newshour had Ray Lahood, transportation secretary on last night. When asked what the 4000 laid off bureaucrats used to do, he mumbled "nextgen" and "improve the FAA". In short, they drew their pay but were not doing anything essential. Four thousand bureaucrats cost $400 billion a year, or $4 trillion over 10 years. Jeeze, just leaving them laid of would give a enough spending reduction to satisfy demands for spending cuts to cover a debt limit increase.

And the authorization to collect a 10% tax on tickets expired, which is a windfall to the airlines. They pocketed the money and didn't reduce air fares at all.

All and all, let's leave the FAA un authorized.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Is Washington broken ?

Subject of the talk session on Meet the Press this morning. Translating pundit speak into plain English, we don't have the votes to pass our pet programs. And that's terrible.
We lack bipartisanship in Congress. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.
Everyone is so ideological now. Translation, they are voting their districts and the districts are up in arms. Few Congressmen dare to vote for more taxes or a debt limit increase lest their districts vote them out of office.
Nobody will compromise and compromise has become a bad word. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.