The official US govt index of consumer confidence has been sinking, with the steepest decline coming right after the Washington debt limit kerfuffle of a couple a weeks ago. NPR commented about this on the morning talk show. The gist of the radio piece was "Oh dear, those terrible Republicans, they got the consumers all upset and now they won't spend money and Great Depression 2.0 will never end."
The way I see it, the Republicans made the country, voters, consumers and even a few politicians realize that the US govt is broke and getting more broke every day. A fact the news media had been concealing from the public. There is now a chance to do something before the United States of America gets flushed down the same drain the Greeks are swirling down. Wising up the public is a good thing.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Computer Models.
A computer model is actually a computer program that computes future results. The most famous computer models out there are the ones predicting global warming. There are many of the models and they have been criticized from many angles.
Without going into specific criticisms, remember, a computer model will predict what the programmer wants it to predict. If the model makes undesired predictions, the programmer assumes there is something wrong with the program and makes changes to fix the problem. I used to program for my day job, and I wrote a computer model or two over the years. Neither model produced the desired (right) answers first time I ran the code. One had a bug that I fixed, and the other never did give the "right" answers. That one showed us that a design approach we liked was never gonna work, and we changed the design. Thank goodness we were open minded enough to listen to the model and not waste money going down a blind alley.
But you gotta watch those computer models. Basically models will tell you, what you want to hear. Or what the programmer wanted you to hear. The Hadley CRU climate model, leaked to the web last year, had a single line of code that "scaled" (boosted) recent temperatures to produce the "hockey stick" graph of temperature over time.
Without going into specific criticisms, remember, a computer model will predict what the programmer wants it to predict. If the model makes undesired predictions, the programmer assumes there is something wrong with the program and makes changes to fix the problem. I used to program for my day job, and I wrote a computer model or two over the years. Neither model produced the desired (right) answers first time I ran the code. One had a bug that I fixed, and the other never did give the "right" answers. That one showed us that a design approach we liked was never gonna work, and we changed the design. Thank goodness we were open minded enough to listen to the model and not waste money going down a blind alley.
But you gotta watch those computer models. Basically models will tell you, what you want to hear. Or what the programmer wanted you to hear. The Hadley CRU climate model, leaked to the web last year, had a single line of code that "scaled" (boosted) recent temperatures to produce the "hockey stick" graph of temperature over time.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Nova on "Climate Change"
Watched a three hour rerun of Nova last night, the three shows on human evolution. Actually three one hour shows rebroadcast back to back on Vermont public TV. Not bad stuff, they described some newly discovered human fossils that I had never heard of. They described the rise and 2 million year existence of a human precursor with a chimpanzee size brain, but who walked upright. The famous fossil Lucy was a member of this group.
They glossed over some things. They described the Neanderthal DNA sequencing, including creation of the Neanderthal genotype. Neanderthals are very close to modern man DNA wise. Then they said very few Neanderthal genes exist in modern humans. If Neanderthal and human genotypes are very similar, how can you tell which genes are Neanderthal and which are modern? This was used to support the idea that modern humans "out competed" (wiped out) Neanderthal man, as opposed to the less blood thirsty idea that modern man interbred with Neanderthals and so absorbed them. They made no mention of some fossils that surely look half modern and half Neanderthal. I saw one such fossil on display in the Peabody museum some years ago. I ought to go back and see if it's still on display.
And they seemed obsessed with climate change. Every few minutes they described massive and life threatening climate changes over the last 10 million years. With one exception they didn't connect climate change with human evolutionary progress, but they sure let us know that climate change was out there and to be feared. The one connect that makes sense is walking upright. That seems a perfectly reasonable adaptation for a tree climbing, tree living ape, when the lush tropical jungle dries out to grass lands, where you gotta walk and run to get around, as opposed to Tarzan style swinging thru the treetops on handy vines (brachiation I believe they call it). But other than that one idea, the connection between massive climate changes and human evolution was left unclear. But they sure let you know about all that dreadful climate changing.
They glossed over some things. They described the Neanderthal DNA sequencing, including creation of the Neanderthal genotype. Neanderthals are very close to modern man DNA wise. Then they said very few Neanderthal genes exist in modern humans. If Neanderthal and human genotypes are very similar, how can you tell which genes are Neanderthal and which are modern? This was used to support the idea that modern humans "out competed" (wiped out) Neanderthal man, as opposed to the less blood thirsty idea that modern man interbred with Neanderthals and so absorbed them. They made no mention of some fossils that surely look half modern and half Neanderthal. I saw one such fossil on display in the Peabody museum some years ago. I ought to go back and see if it's still on display.
And they seemed obsessed with climate change. Every few minutes they described massive and life threatening climate changes over the last 10 million years. With one exception they didn't connect climate change with human evolutionary progress, but they sure let us know that climate change was out there and to be feared. The one connect that makes sense is walking upright. That seems a perfectly reasonable adaptation for a tree climbing, tree living ape, when the lush tropical jungle dries out to grass lands, where you gotta walk and run to get around, as opposed to Tarzan style swinging thru the treetops on handy vines (brachiation I believe they call it). But other than that one idea, the connection between massive climate changes and human evolution was left unclear. But they sure let you know about all that dreadful climate changing.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Missed Confederate opportunity
Been reading John Keegan's Civil War. Keegan spends a good deal of time discussing strategy, as in what strategy would win the war. Keegan points out that Confederate forces in border state Kentucky could have attacked Cincinnati, and pushed north thru Ohio to Lake Eire, cutting the Union in half. It's only 150 miles from Cincinnati on the Ohio River to Toledo on Lake Eire. As far as Keegen can see, the Confederates never thought of this strategy. The closest they came was Lee's invasion of Pennsylvania, which could have threatened both Washington and Baltimore. It resulted in the battle of Gettysburg, a Union victory. Had Lee prevailed at Gettysburg, he would have been in a position to do the Union great harm.
Keegan is making the point that the successful Civil War strategy involved cutting the opponent into pieces. Grant and Sherman's capture of the Mississippi cut Texas off. Sherman's march to the sea cut the remainder of the Confederacy in half.
Keegan is making the point that the successful Civil War strategy involved cutting the opponent into pieces. Grant and Sherman's capture of the Mississippi cut Texas off. Sherman's march to the sea cut the remainder of the Confederacy in half.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Cannot comment on my own blog!!!
I saw, read, and enjoyed several comments posted within the last couple of days. I attempted to reply to all of them. For reasons unknown, blogger refused to post my comments. I'll let you know when I get my commenting privileges back.
The Double Negative
"I ain't got no time." Bugaboo of English teachers every where. If you believe in mathematical logic, then you understand that negating a negative makes it positive. A hard concept from 8th grade math class. If A is a proposition then not A is the opposite. If A is true, not A is false. And not not A is true.
And yet the double negative persists in speech. That's because it seems natural that two negatives make the negation stronger.
"I ain't got time" doesn't sound as emphatic as "I ain't got no time".
But the English teachers of the world are united in condemning the double negative and their view is likely to stick.
And yet the double negative persists in speech. That's because it seems natural that two negatives make the negation stronger.
"I ain't got time" doesn't sound as emphatic as "I ain't got no time".
But the English teachers of the world are united in condemning the double negative and their view is likely to stick.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Green Crony Capitalism
A green solar panel company, Solyndra, received $500 million in Federal loan guarantees. It declared bankruptcy today, leaving us taxpayers stuck with the bill. Company is laying off 1100 workers. Hmm. $500 million over 1100 workers, that's about $500,000 per worker, no wonder they are dead meat.
They got the loan guarantees 'cause no one in the private sector would loan 'em money without. The private sector guys had it figured just right, Solyndra was a money loser. Why did Obama put up my tax money when experts said Solyndra was a loser? Should Uncle ever guarantee any one's loans?
They got the loan guarantees 'cause no one in the private sector would loan 'em money without. The private sector guys had it figured just right, Solyndra was a money loser. Why did Obama put up my tax money when experts said Solyndra was a loser? Should Uncle ever guarantee any one's loans?
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