CBO Congressional Budget Office, makes predictions of Federal government revenue, deficits, debt, and so on. Typically they are asked to predict the effect of laws (Obamacare, Bush tax cut extentions, hiking taxes on the wealthy) upon the Federal fisc. Unfortunately, CBO predictions are often pure BS. For instance CBO predicted that Obamacare would save money. Yeah right.
CBO predictions are based upon unrealistic assumptions. Such as, Congress won't ease the Alternate Minimum Tax (which they do every year). Or that Congress won't pass a "doc fix" easing Medicare fee cuts (which they do every year).
The House of Representatives spent today arguing over reform of the CBO estimating process. The Republicans want more realistic estimates. The democrats stand foresquare for bull crap estimates.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Romney wins Florida, Thank Goodness
Big relief last night. Mitt beat Newt decisively in Florida. A good thing. Mitt can beat Obama, Newt cannot, Newt is too flaky, and has accumulated too many enemies over the 30 years he has been in national politics.
Unless something really strange happens, Mitt will get the nomination, and Newt will go back to consulting.
Unless something really strange happens, Mitt will get the nomination, and Newt will go back to consulting.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
It's baack
My old friend virus DOS/Alureon.A popped up yet again today. His footfall is heavier and louder now, I pretty much knew I had a virus as soon as he showed up. I ran the Microsoft Malicious Software Removal Tool (January version) and if found him. Only took 4 hours of scanning.
But the damn thing has gotten wilier. The fix I posted about earlier this month no longer worked. Alureon has figured out how bollix the ComputerManagment/Storage/DiskManagment tool I used to blow his partition away last time. The tool still starts, but Alureon has done something magic to cripple the tool and make it ignore the hard drives. It just shows the DVD drive.
However antivirus MalWareBytes has gotten stronger and was able to find Alureon on a quick scan and blow it away.
I don't know what security hole in Windows is letting this bastard in, but Microsoft hasn't patched it. Thanks Bill Gates.
But the damn thing has gotten wilier. The fix I posted about earlier this month no longer worked. Alureon has figured out how bollix the ComputerManagment/Storage/DiskManagment tool I used to blow his partition away last time. The tool still starts, but Alureon has done something magic to cripple the tool and make it ignore the hard drives. It just shows the DVD drive.
However antivirus MalWareBytes has gotten stronger and was able to find Alureon on a quick scan and blow it away.
I don't know what security hole in Windows is letting this bastard in, but Microsoft hasn't patched it. Thanks Bill Gates.
Voter ID
Listened to a long talk on NHPR about voter ID. It gets down to "show a picture ID (driver's license for real people) in order to vote." Such a law failed to pass in NH just the other day. Can't remember if the Gov'not vetoed it or they didn't have enough votes.
Trouble is, none of the three guests on the show were willing to admit that we had any voter fraud in NH. So if we don't have a problem, why are we agitating for more red tape? I mean our polls are all manned by public spirited, un-paid volunteer citizens who get up early and work late on election day. God bless them. I don't want to make them do even more unless there is good reason for it. If we don't have a problem, why make things harder for everyone?
Plus, my town is so small everyone knows every one, and the volunteer poll workers pretty much know every voter.
Trouble is, none of the three guests on the show were willing to admit that we had any voter fraud in NH. So if we don't have a problem, why are we agitating for more red tape? I mean our polls are all manned by public spirited, un-paid volunteer citizens who get up early and work late on election day. God bless them. I don't want to make them do even more unless there is good reason for it. If we don't have a problem, why make things harder for everyone?
Plus, my town is so small everyone knows every one, and the volunteer poll workers pretty much know every voter.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Boondoggle
The Wall St Journal reports the Pentagon spent $330 million to develop 20 fifteen ton bunker buster bombs. Wow.
That's $16.5 million per bomb.
Bunker busters are nothing new. British genius Barnes Wallis invented the first one back in WWII. Wallis' "Tallboy" weighed six tons, and the later "Grand Slam" weighed ten tons, the heaviest that 1940's aircraft could get off the ground. These bombs have a very strong steel casing and when dropped from high altitude, they penetrate deep into the ground before exploding. The casing has to be very strong, in one case, old cannon barrels were used to make the bomb casings.
Nothing here to justify a $16.5 million price tag.
Looks like a good place for some defense budget cuts. Better here than cutting 89,000 soldiers and marines.
That's $16.5 million per bomb.
Bunker busters are nothing new. British genius Barnes Wallis invented the first one back in WWII. Wallis' "Tallboy" weighed six tons, and the later "Grand Slam" weighed ten tons, the heaviest that 1940's aircraft could get off the ground. These bombs have a very strong steel casing and when dropped from high altitude, they penetrate deep into the ground before exploding. The casing has to be very strong, in one case, old cannon barrels were used to make the bomb casings.
Nothing here to justify a $16.5 million price tag.
Looks like a good place for some defense budget cuts. Better here than cutting 89,000 soldiers and marines.
Computer Movie Reviewer
Good old Netflix keeps throwing up movie suggestions " You ought to rent this one" to me. And Netflix does pretty well, most of the suggestion are things I like. Netflix claims to select each movie suggestion "because you liked Such and Such".
This means that Netflix has a way of classifying movies, so that given one movie the customer likes, the computer finds movies of a simular classification system.
I'd love to know just how that classification system works. How much weight is given to who stars in the movie vs subject matter, vs era, vs who knows what? Surely a classification system that matches my personal likes and dislikes so closely could tell us something about what makes a good movie and what makes a crummy one.
Hollywood could use the help. They have been making more crummy movies than good movies lately.
This means that Netflix has a way of classifying movies, so that given one movie the customer likes, the computer finds movies of a simular classification system.
I'd love to know just how that classification system works. How much weight is given to who stars in the movie vs subject matter, vs era, vs who knows what? Surely a classification system that matches my personal likes and dislikes so closely could tell us something about what makes a good movie and what makes a crummy one.
Hollywood could use the help. They have been making more crummy movies than good movies lately.
Rising Sun Victorious by Peter Tsouras
An alternate history of WWII where Japan wins. It's written for history buffs and wargamers. It discusses a variety of alternate histories. For instance, more effective Nazi diplomacy gets the Japanese to attack the Soviets rather than the Americans. This scenario actually makes some sense. The Nazi's came very close to crushing the Soviets in the first year. Had the Japanese attacked in Siberia it might well have tipped the balance. The last German drive on Moscow was stopped by reserves that Stalin pulled out of Siberia. If the Japanese had gone on the offensive, those reserves would not have been available.
Other than that, the idea that Japan could defeat a United States with a larger, loyal, and warlike population, vastly greater national territory, advanced technology, massive industry, and plentiful farmlands is foolish. Admiral Yamamoto understood this, no other senior Japanese leader did.
What the book does highlight is how slender the US margin of victory was. At Midway had a lost American air strike turned south to look for the enemy instead of north, or had a Japanese cruiser's floatplane got airborne on time, the Japanese might have won. Had a Japanese admiral had a little more Samurai spirit, the battle of Leyte Gulf would have been a famous Japanese victory.
A fun read.
Other than that, the idea that Japan could defeat a United States with a larger, loyal, and warlike population, vastly greater national territory, advanced technology, massive industry, and plentiful farmlands is foolish. Admiral Yamamoto understood this, no other senior Japanese leader did.
What the book does highlight is how slender the US margin of victory was. At Midway had a lost American air strike turned south to look for the enemy instead of north, or had a Japanese cruiser's floatplane got airborne on time, the Japanese might have won. Had a Japanese admiral had a little more Samurai spirit, the battle of Leyte Gulf would have been a famous Japanese victory.
A fun read.
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