Thursday, April 18, 2013

Would you buy a used airliner from this man?

A series of articles in Aviation Week about end of life for airliners.  The airlines now retire an airliner after 20 years of service, which sounds kinda young for something that lasts forever.  I mean the B-52s have been flying for 50 years and will fly for a lot more.  Speaking as a passenger, the new airliners are no faster and no comfier than the old ones. 
   The brand new airliners have somewhat better fuel economy which the airlines figure will pay off eventually  Boeing and Airbus are claiming their next year's models will have 10 even 15 percent better fuel burn than current models.  I haven't worked the numbers, but it seems like it will take a long time to pay off a $100 million new airliner on 10% better fuel burn. 
   When parted out, the engines and avionics can be resold for big money.  It's possible to realize $15 million in parts sales from a tired airliner you can buy for $5 million.  Doing so requires good timing, the parts are only worth money as long as airliners of that model are still flying. 
   Boeing and Airbus have backlogs of a couple of thousand new airliners.  Due to the continuing Great Depression 2.0  air traffic isn't growing much.  Does this mean a couple of thousand new airliners causes a couple of thousand old ones scrapped?

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Atlantic gets profound about North Korea

Joel Wit and Jenny Tower conclude their piece on the Atlantic magazine website thusly:

"The bottom line is that, even if this current crisis recedes, North Korea's WMD programs pose serious security risks in the region and to the U.S. that will continue to grow if not addressed in a direct and compelling way. ....   It may be distasteful given the nature of the North Korean regime, but there is no substitute for diplomacy and direct contact with Pyongyang."

Great.  "addressed and a direct and compelling way."   So what does that mean?  Talk at 'em, nuke 'em, blockade 'em, invade 'em, bury our heads in the sand, or what?  Just saying we ought to do something doesn't help.  You gotta say what you wanna do.  Especially if "something" involves a lot of pain, which doing a second Korean War would involve.

 Ah, here we get to it.  "there is no substitute for diplomacy and direct contact with Pyongyang". Been there, done that.  Both Clinton and Bush tried to cut a "economic assistance in return for stopping weapons development" deal.  The North Koreans signed two such deals and  reneged on both of them.  In actual fact, the North Koreans see nuclear weapons as the only thing that will keep the North Korean regime alive in the face of South Korean and American economic, political, and military pressure.  The Kim regime knows that all their citizens would join South Korea in a flash. As soon as the North Korean secret police and army loose their grip, even for a day or two, the regime is gone, the Kim's are dead, and  Korea is re unified under Seoul.  At least with nukes they don't have to worry about ground invasion or air strikes from the South.  No way are the North Koreans going to give up their nukes no matter what we promise 'em.




Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Another Retailer dies the death

Just got a "Going out of Business" sale post card from Pilgrim Furniture.  An ordinary furniture store in Littleton, it's been in business there for ever, 30-40 years.  A landmark.  My wall-to-wall carpet came from them and it's been down for 30 years.  Any how, they are doing the going out of business sale, and they probably mean it. 
  Either the owners are getting old and want to retire, or business is really bad, or both.  We will miss them.

I still hate doing Federal Income Tax

A complete pain in the tail.  I spend all day rummaging thru my files looking for dividend payment slips and deductible stuff.  More time trying to read gobble-te-gook instruction sheets cluttered with useless information.  I mean like who needs to know who has to file.  We all have to file, and we all know it. The lack of  any sort of general rules.  Like is Social Security taxable, yes or no?  They don't state any rule, they give you a 17 step work sheet, take this line, add that line, take a percent, and half an hour later you find out Social Security is a little bit taxable.  They pull the same worksheet dodge for capital gains and qualified dividends. 
   Then there are a myriad of deductions, exemptions, tax credits, and malarkey.  None of which help me or any one else, but you gotta read up on them just in case they might apply to you.  You feel really bad if you miss a tax loophole in your favor, so you waste more time checking them all out. 
   We ought to scrap the current personal income tax law[s] completely.  Start over with something like this.

                                       New 21st Century Personal Income Tax Law.

All income is taxable at the same rate.  Nothing is deductible.  No credits, no exemptions.  Capital gains is taxed the same as salary.  No loss carryover.  No income averaging.  Married or single, with or with out children everyone pays the same. No special deals for anyone.  Everyone pays something, no free riders.

    Tax Table

Yearly Income          Tax Rate
<$10000                  1%
$10000-$30000       5%
$30000-$125000     15%
>$125000                 25%

                                                              The End

Monday, April 15, 2013

We can't even do a foot race without terrorist attacks

The Boston Marathon, a simple foot race, been held for better than 100 years, attracted terrorists with bombs.  What used to be a happy day, is now a horror, with two dead and more injured.
   We need to find the perps and then get medieval on them.  Draw and quarter, boiling oil, nothing is too good for those cowardly scum. 

Jump Starting the 787

Can you hear the holding of breath?  Boeing finished up the modifications to the battery and battery box on 5 April and sent the paperwork to the FAA.  FAA has said nothing, and has a hearing scheduled for 23-24 April on the adequacy of the Boeing fixes.  With $200 million airliners piling up at the factory, billions of dollars of sales, American leadership in the jet airliner business at stake, FAA is under a lot of pressure to OK the fixes and get on with it.  Even an Obama FAA  doesn't want to torpedo American airliner sales, at least I don't think they do.
   Boeing's fixes are not confidence inspiring.  They never did figure out what caused the batteries to catch fire.  They made a number of improvements to the battery, but since they don't know what caused the fires, they don't know if the fixes will do any good.  They are putting their real faith in a fireproof stainless steel battery box to contain any fires and vent the smoke over board.
   If the FAA approves Boeing's fixes, and more trouble occurs, they will look really bad.  And they know it.  FAA could decide that nothing less than ditching lithium batteries and going back to something tried and true, like NiCad, or even lead acid will do.  If they feel this way, they should have let Boeing know back in January.  To let Boeing waste three months, hold up the program for three months, is inexcusable.  If FAA want's to be hard ass, they ought to have had the guts to make their feelings clear, back in January.  If FAA announces "no good" next week, it will take Boeing another couple of months to do a battery change.
   Anyhow, the breath holding at Boeing will continue.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Checking out the Infrastructure

The democrats are hiking the NH gas tax fifteen cents a gallon.  They claim that NH infrastructure (roads and bridges) is falling apart. Only a stiff tax hike will save NH from falling back into the stone age.
   I drove to a train show out in the sticks today.  Sutton NH, a tiny place way out in the boondocks.  I picked up NH route 11, an obscure two lane road at Tilton and followed it west for 30 miles.  The Mercury hummed along at 60 mph, smooth, no serious bumps, decent road.  It's mud season, when the town and country road agents post a 6 ton load limit on every road except I93.  Roads are better for the rest of the year. 
   If NH infrastructure is in need of another 15 cents a gallon you couldn't prove it by me.   Little old two lane rural NH 11 is in much better shape than I95 going thru Manhattan.