This was all over the news. Mary Barra is a old time GMer. She started with GM 30 years ago and is still there. She is an engineer and comes up thru manufacturing, which is closer to the core of GM than the bean counters who preceded her. I figure any woman who lasts 30 years in place like GM has gotta be pretty competent, or she would not have survived. Of course, I never heard of her before now, but then I don't follow Detroit news much.
The real question for the survival of Govt Motors, is she a car person? Can she bring to market cars that sell? Can she champion new cars that sell the way that Iacocca's Mustang, Arkus Dutov's Corvette, and Bunkie Knudsen's GTO did? Cars that make enough of a dent in popular culture to be the subject of pop songs. As opposed to GM's current lineup that is so bland that only renta-car companies like them?
For GM's sake let's hope. A lot of this is perceived value. Back in the good old days, Chevy had more perceived value than Ford. Used Chevys sold for more money than used Fords. This was due to good styling, that successfully steered a middle course between too radical and too stogy. Chevy engines were less troublesome and more powerful than Ford engines. Chevy 409's dominated NHRA drag racing. A generation of block head GM management has pretty much destroyed this legacy. At this time, Toyota commands more respect than anything from GM.
Ms Barra first needs to understand that GM is a huge company, which means it has to compete for the center of the car market. Which is the low cost four door four passenger sedan, the commute to work car and the go to the store car. GM needs to gain share in this market. This is Chevy Cruze and Impala turf. GM needs a well styled, competitively priced car in this market segment. Real volume. About 12 million new cars a year are sold in North America. Of this, a quarter, say 4 million cars, are plain four passenger sedans. That's enough volume to keep GM going.
Contrast that with Corvette. There simply ain't enough guys with Corvette money to keep GM alive. It's a great car, but you need a bread and butter seller to keep a behemoth fed.
How to proceed? Simple stuff like reliability and ruggedness is a good place to start. Some favorable mentions in Consumer Reports. Some top of the charts gas mileage. For instance Cruz is only doing 30+ mpg, whereas you need to hit 40 mpg before anyone cares much. Cruz has a good deal more horsepower than it needs. You can trade off power for gas mileage. A 40 mpg 60 hp car is a better seller in that market segment than the current 28 mpg 138 hp car. The old VW Beetle was perfectly driveable with only 36 hp. The Dodge Caravan's were driveable with 80 hp and a lot more weight and airdrag.
Better styling. The current Cruz is nose heavy and bland. The silhouette is round, slopes up the front, slopes down the back, boring, and so many others have it too.
Anyhow,. Mary Barra has her work cut out for her. She has to get decent sellers designed, and then force them thru all the institutional resistance and NIH, get them on sale, and promote them properly.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
FAA sniffs at Amazon's package delivery drone
After an avalanche of good press from Amazon's video clip of a small whirry helicopter type drone landing a package at a customer's doorstep, FAA has announced that it doesn't like the idea and will cause trouble for it. FAA announced in Aviation Week the drones would be limited to 55 pounds total takeoff weight, line of sight operation, daylight only, and altitude not to exceed 400 feet.
Line of sight is the killer restriction. I mean how many customer abodes are within eyeshot of the Amazon warehouse[s]? Even using binoculars? Darn few.
We will pass over the technological challanges of beyond line of sight operation. Even after the drone has found the delivery address using GPS, it still has to locate the door, or the mail box, sort out apartment numbers, distinguish between walks and driveways, and other stuff that mailmen have no trouble with, but robots will find challenging.
Anyhow, Amazon created a lot of good publicity for itself, and FAA managed to look like the Grinch.
Line of sight is the killer restriction. I mean how many customer abodes are within eyeshot of the Amazon warehouse[s]? Even using binoculars? Darn few.
We will pass over the technological challanges of beyond line of sight operation. Even after the drone has found the delivery address using GPS, it still has to locate the door, or the mail box, sort out apartment numbers, distinguish between walks and driveways, and other stuff that mailmen have no trouble with, but robots will find challenging.
Anyhow, Amazon created a lot of good publicity for itself, and FAA managed to look like the Grinch.
Winter Storm Watch
Well, we got one yesterday. The TV was babbling on and on about snow and ice and flight cancellations and ugly weather.
Well, it didn't make it up here much. I got a light dusting of snow, fraction of an inch against a TV forecast of 2 to 5 inches. Lotta wind yesterday, but not much precip.
Well, it didn't make it up here much. I got a light dusting of snow, fraction of an inch against a TV forecast of 2 to 5 inches. Lotta wind yesterday, but not much precip.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Pearl Harbor. Day that will live in Infamy
Actually Pearl Harbor day was two days ago, 7 December. This one event changed the course of WWII. Prior to Pearl Harbor, the US population was isolationist, what would be called anti-war 25 years later. America had entered WWI, the results at the peace table were less than expected, writers had been blaming WWI on munitions makers attempting to boost sales, and the population was bound and determined that the US would not, repeat not, get mixed up in another European war. This feeling was so strong, that Franklin Roosevelt, one of the canniest and most powerful presidents of the 20th century, was unable give support to Britain. What little he could do, destroyers for bases and lend lease, was hotly opposed in Congress.
Pearl Harbor turned all that around instantly. As Admiral Yamamoto put it, " I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." It took us three years, but we sank their fleet, killed their soldiers, nuked their homeland, did regime change on them, and occupied the place. And, had the Japanese understood Americans, they would have realized that they could have continued their aggression against China, and seized the oil fields of Dutch Indonesia without starting a war with the Americans. It is clear to all American historians that we would have done nothing more than send diplomatic protests to Tokyo no matter how agressive they became. The Japanese stuck their hands into a hornet's nest and got stung, hard. Their leadership, with the exception of Yamamoto, simply did not understand what they were doing. They had been reading too much Mahan (Influence of Seapower upon History) which has a simplistic premise that winning control of the sea by destroying the enemy fleet wins the war. From Mahan's point of view, the Pearl Harbor attack was perfect, one daring strike and the entire American battlefleet, eight decent battleships, was sunk.
Two things spoiled the victory. That year, 1941, was a year of transition from battleships to aircraft carriers. Our aircraft carriers survived Pearl Harbor. So, in actual fact, the US battle fleet survived Pearl Harbor. The second thing was American resolve. We raised all the sunken ships, we built a LOT of new ships and LOT of other stuff, we enlisted 10 million men in the armed forces, we developed superweapons so advanced that they did even appear in 1940's science fiction. We shrugged off our losses at Pearl and came back stronger than ever.
The other effect of Pearl Harbor was to doom the Nazis. For some reason, Hitler declared war on the US a few days after Pearl Harbor. He didn't need to, he had no obligations to Japan, he was locked in a death struggle with the Soviets, he didn't need any more hostilities, especially not with America. But he did it. At the time, Hitler convinced every American that he was in league with Japan. We only found out after the war that Hitler was acting on his own hook. Hitler's declaration of war was a great help to the Roosevelt administration. The whole American establishment, the administration, the military, the foreign policy establishment, the industrialists, the union people, all feared the Germans, much more than Japan. The establishment wanted to beat Hitler first, and then take out the Japanese. With Hitler's gratuitous declaration of war, they could do just that. If Hitler had been smarter and kept his mouth shut, there is a good chance the Americans would have departed upon a Pacific Ocean crusade, and left him deal with the Soviets and the Brits unmolested by Yankees.
Both ways, Pearl Harbor was a turning point. It didn't have to happen, it wasn't inevitable, and history would be a lot different if the Japanese had not attacked.
Pearl Harbor turned all that around instantly. As Admiral Yamamoto put it, " I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." It took us three years, but we sank their fleet, killed their soldiers, nuked their homeland, did regime change on them, and occupied the place. And, had the Japanese understood Americans, they would have realized that they could have continued their aggression against China, and seized the oil fields of Dutch Indonesia without starting a war with the Americans. It is clear to all American historians that we would have done nothing more than send diplomatic protests to Tokyo no matter how agressive they became. The Japanese stuck their hands into a hornet's nest and got stung, hard. Their leadership, with the exception of Yamamoto, simply did not understand what they were doing. They had been reading too much Mahan (Influence of Seapower upon History) which has a simplistic premise that winning control of the sea by destroying the enemy fleet wins the war. From Mahan's point of view, the Pearl Harbor attack was perfect, one daring strike and the entire American battlefleet, eight decent battleships, was sunk.
Two things spoiled the victory. That year, 1941, was a year of transition from battleships to aircraft carriers. Our aircraft carriers survived Pearl Harbor. So, in actual fact, the US battle fleet survived Pearl Harbor. The second thing was American resolve. We raised all the sunken ships, we built a LOT of new ships and LOT of other stuff, we enlisted 10 million men in the armed forces, we developed superweapons so advanced that they did even appear in 1940's science fiction. We shrugged off our losses at Pearl and came back stronger than ever.
The other effect of Pearl Harbor was to doom the Nazis. For some reason, Hitler declared war on the US a few days after Pearl Harbor. He didn't need to, he had no obligations to Japan, he was locked in a death struggle with the Soviets, he didn't need any more hostilities, especially not with America. But he did it. At the time, Hitler convinced every American that he was in league with Japan. We only found out after the war that Hitler was acting on his own hook. Hitler's declaration of war was a great help to the Roosevelt administration. The whole American establishment, the administration, the military, the foreign policy establishment, the industrialists, the union people, all feared the Germans, much more than Japan. The establishment wanted to beat Hitler first, and then take out the Japanese. With Hitler's gratuitous declaration of war, they could do just that. If Hitler had been smarter and kept his mouth shut, there is a good chance the Americans would have departed upon a Pacific Ocean crusade, and left him deal with the Soviets and the Brits unmolested by Yankees.
Both ways, Pearl Harbor was a turning point. It didn't have to happen, it wasn't inevitable, and history would be a lot different if the Japanese had not attacked.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Good Day at BlackRock
The Economist is unhappy about BlackRock in a cover story. The cover cartoon shows an enormous jet black Rock-of-Gibraltar leaning over the two lane road ahead, threatening to topple and block all traffic forever. BlackRock is a Wall St brokerage house, that buys and sells stock for its clients. It was founded in the '80s and has done pretty well, it has $4 trillion in assets. Part of BlackRock's success is a computer back office that tracks stocks and has made some canny predictions. It was canny enough to keep BlackRock out of the mortgage backed security black hole back in 2006. In fact it was so good that BlackRock now leases access to the system, bringing in $400 million in fees per year. The system, dubbed Aladdin, is so popular on the street that the Economist reckons that another $11 trillion in stocks is controlled by Aladdin, giving a grand total of $15 trillion under the influence, or perhaps control, of this one piece of software. That's quite a chunk of change, the entire US economy is about that size.
This concentration clearly bothers the Economist. If they had a say in the matter, they would put BlackRock under strict government regulation, lest they hiccup and crash the stock market. Good thing the Economist isn't in charge.
This concentration clearly bothers the Economist. If they had a say in the matter, they would put BlackRock under strict government regulation, lest they hiccup and crash the stock market. Good thing the Economist isn't in charge.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Facebook has started posting ads on your home. Used to be, you only saw posts from your facebook friends. Now they are giving me 10% straight ads from companies and organizations I never heard of and don't care about. And Firefox doesn't have filters to dump the ads.
There will come a point when the ads become so obnoxious that I will dump Facebook.
There will come a point when the ads become so obnoxious that I will dump Facebook.
Executive Council
We have a vacancy on the NH executive council. Beloved north country councilor Ray Burton died of cancer last month leaving his seat open. The democrats have picked their man, Michael Cryans, to run on their ticket. We Republicans have some competition, at least we think so.
Anyhow, Christopher Boothby is running. There will be a primary in January, 21st I believe. I never heard of Chris before he decided to run. I don't know who is running against him in the primary.
Anyhow, Chris is doing the reasonable thing, he is traveling round the district and talking to voters. I sent out an email blast to north country Republicans and Tea Partiers to come and meet the candidate. We had the back room at the Oasis Restaurant and it filled up with north country political types, including yours truly. I must be getting into the swim of things, I knew everyone who showed up. Lotta hand shaking and how-are-yous and chit chat. Chris and his wife Mara showed up on time, we had a pleasant give and take. Everyone in the room was an old friend of the deceased Ray Burton, and a lot of Ray stories were told, back and forth.
Chris looks OK to me. He won't be Ray Burton, but then its unreasonable to expect anyone to fill Ray'sa shoes. We will have to see if the competition makes it up to the north country.
Anyhow, Christopher Boothby is running. There will be a primary in January, 21st I believe. I never heard of Chris before he decided to run. I don't know who is running against him in the primary.
Anyhow, Chris is doing the reasonable thing, he is traveling round the district and talking to voters. I sent out an email blast to north country Republicans and Tea Partiers to come and meet the candidate. We had the back room at the Oasis Restaurant and it filled up with north country political types, including yours truly. I must be getting into the swim of things, I knew everyone who showed up. Lotta hand shaking and how-are-yous and chit chat. Chris and his wife Mara showed up on time, we had a pleasant give and take. Everyone in the room was an old friend of the deceased Ray Burton, and a lot of Ray stories were told, back and forth.
Chris looks OK to me. He won't be Ray Burton, but then its unreasonable to expect anyone to fill Ray'sa shoes. We will have to see if the competition makes it up to the north country.
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