Back in the fuel crisis of the 1970's, and with the opening up of the Alaska North Slope oil fields, Congress passed a law forbidding the export of US oil. What with everyone sitting in lines at the gas station just to fill the family car, it seemed like a quick short cut to making more oil and gasoline available to US consumers.
Now, 40 years later, the industry has managed to radically increase domestic oil production. They want to sell some this new oil production abroad.
Let 'em. The oil companies are far better equipped to figure out the best way of turning oil into cash than any set of inside the beltway bureaucrats.
The price of oil is set by international markets, the domestic price will be the same whether we sell abroad or not. If anything, American oil sales will depress the international price of oil. Which will reduce the domestic price, since the domestic price is the international price.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Fast Track Authority for OBAMA?
They are talking about it. Fast Track authority means the administration can negotiate a trade deal, or any other sort of deal, with foreign countries, and submit the treaty to the Senate for an up or down vote, no amendments.
If you think about it, fast track is the only way to get anything done. What foreign country, after negotiating some favorable clauses into the treaty wants to see all their hard won concessions go away when the US Congress rewrites the deal before ratifying it? Hence fast track. But fast track is not a constitutional power of the president, Congress has to vote it in, for a limited time. Right now, Barack Obama doesn't have it.
Basically, I believe in free, or at least freer trade, it reduces prices for us poor consumers, and it increases exports, which provides more US jobs.
But, you gotta look at Barack Obama's negotiating skills. He just negotiated an energy deal with the Chinese. We cut our CO2 emissions by 27% starting now, they let their CO2 emissions grow with out limit until the year 2030. That kinda deal we don't need.
Far as I can see, Obama is such an incompetent negotiator, that giving him fast track authority is like giving matches to a two year old. It's a bad idea.
If you think about it, fast track is the only way to get anything done. What foreign country, after negotiating some favorable clauses into the treaty wants to see all their hard won concessions go away when the US Congress rewrites the deal before ratifying it? Hence fast track. But fast track is not a constitutional power of the president, Congress has to vote it in, for a limited time. Right now, Barack Obama doesn't have it.
Basically, I believe in free, or at least freer trade, it reduces prices for us poor consumers, and it increases exports, which provides more US jobs.
But, you gotta look at Barack Obama's negotiating skills. He just negotiated an energy deal with the Chinese. We cut our CO2 emissions by 27% starting now, they let their CO2 emissions grow with out limit until the year 2030. That kinda deal we don't need.
Far as I can see, Obama is such an incompetent negotiator, that giving him fast track authority is like giving matches to a two year old. It's a bad idea.
Friday, November 14, 2014
Gruber calls American voters stupid
I don't think so. Gruber and the democrats concealed the contents of the Obamacare bill. Even so, the voters in deep blue Massachusetts sent Republican Scott Brown to the senate to fill Ted Kennedy's seat, and that denied the Democrats enough Senate votes to ram thru new versions of the law. And, the voters remembered who stuck them with Obamacare, and have voted truckloads of them out of office. Somehow Jean Shaheen survived, but we got a lot of the rest of 'em.
The fault did not lie with the voters. It lies with the administration, who lied repeatedly, with Congresspeople who deceived their constituants and voted against their interests, and with the newsies who slanted their stories in favor of Obamacare.
American democracy is based upon the idea that office holders are honest, that newspapers tell the truth, and that Congressmen vote their districts. In the Obamacare disaster we had a president who said "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor. We had a Speaker of the House who said "You have to pass it to see what's in it." We had a national press that pumped out nothing but favorable stories about Obamacare. In short, the executive lied, the newspapers lied, and Congress did not vote their district.
The fault did not lie with the voters. It lies with the administration, who lied repeatedly, with Congresspeople who deceived their constituants and voted against their interests, and with the newsies who slanted their stories in favor of Obamacare.
American democracy is based upon the idea that office holders are honest, that newspapers tell the truth, and that Congressmen vote their districts. In the Obamacare disaster we had a president who said "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor. We had a Speaker of the House who said "You have to pass it to see what's in it." We had a national press that pumped out nothing but favorable stories about Obamacare. In short, the executive lied, the newspapers lied, and Congress did not vote their district.
Cannon Mt Ski Weather
It snowed last night. We got 2.5 inches. It stuck and covered the grass and lawns. It's melting off the roads 'cause the ground still is not frozen. It's not enough to open Cannon, but it puts the snowmakers 2.5 inches ahead.
For those who care, my deck, where I measure snowfall, is within easy walking distance of the Peabody slopes bunny lift. What I get is pretty much what Peabody slopes gets. Figure the top of Cannon gets a bit more snow than the bottom.
For those who care, my deck, where I measure snowfall, is within easy walking distance of the Peabody slopes bunny lift. What I get is pretty much what Peabody slopes gets. Figure the top of Cannon gets a bit more snow than the bottom.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Speaker of the NH House
The new Republican majority in Concord gets to choose a speaker of the
house. They are talking about a vote next week. Candidates are Gene
Chandler (from Bartlett), Bill O'Brien (Mont Vernon) and somebody I
never heard of and cannot remember right now. I know both Gene and
Bill, they are good people, who have the voter's welfare at heart.
Bill O'Brien has served as Speaker before. Back in 2011-12 Bill managed to trim 11% off the budget, got it to balance, avoided a tax hike, and despite continuing screams from Democrats and bureaucrats, nobody was thrown out into the snow. We are talking 11% real cuts, as opposed to the fake cuts so popular with politicians. There was intense opposition from Democrats, do gooders, bureaucrats, and the media, all of whom like increasing taxes and increasing the role of government. Somehow Bill was able to find the votes for his budget and bring it to a vote, saving us taxpayers a bundle.
Bill had time for voters. I remember a little Tea Party meeting in Ashland years ago. It wasn't much, maybe a dozen people, meeting in someone's living room on a weeknight. None of us were well known, or influential, or in command of other votes. But, Bill took the time to drive up (probably and hour and a half). He explained what was going on in Concord, listened to our concerns, and convinced everyone in the room that he and the Republicans knew what they were about. I'll bet he didn't get home to bed before 11 PM that night.
Gene Chandler is a decent guy, a nice guy, I like him. But I don't believe he would be able to push thru an 11% budget cut.
Bill O'Brien has served as Speaker before. Back in 2011-12 Bill managed to trim 11% off the budget, got it to balance, avoided a tax hike, and despite continuing screams from Democrats and bureaucrats, nobody was thrown out into the snow. We are talking 11% real cuts, as opposed to the fake cuts so popular with politicians. There was intense opposition from Democrats, do gooders, bureaucrats, and the media, all of whom like increasing taxes and increasing the role of government. Somehow Bill was able to find the votes for his budget and bring it to a vote, saving us taxpayers a bundle.
Bill had time for voters. I remember a little Tea Party meeting in Ashland years ago. It wasn't much, maybe a dozen people, meeting in someone's living room on a weeknight. None of us were well known, or influential, or in command of other votes. But, Bill took the time to drive up (probably and hour and a half). He explained what was going on in Concord, listened to our concerns, and convinced everyone in the room that he and the Republicans knew what they were about. I'll bet he didn't get home to bed before 11 PM that night.
Gene Chandler is a decent guy, a nice guy, I like him. But I don't believe he would be able to push thru an 11% budget cut.
Maidentrip, An Indie film 2013
14 year old Laura Dekker, a Dutch girl, wanted to sail around the world, single handed. She does it. She also narrates the film, and took all the at sea video. It's a heartwarming tale. Laura films scene after scene, of good weather, of her ketch foaming along with a bone in her teeth, of a cheerful sunlit cabin, of threatening thunder heads, of glorious sunsets, and of running the lee rail under in heavy weather. Clearly Laura loves to sail and loved the trip. It takes a while, she sets off at age 14, and is 16 by the time she finishes. You can see her growing up in the video, she looks a lot more grown up at the end of the trip than at the beginning.
There were a few technical details that I would have enjoyed knowing, like about her boat. I never did catch a name for it. She did mention that it was forty feet long, which makes it a big yacht. I never saw it sailing under Genoa job, the sail of choice of modern yachts. Did Laura know celestial navigation or did she rely upon electronics to guide her from port to port? There are no shots of Laura holding a sextant or consulting a chronometer. No comments upon how well the autopilot could hold course at night while Laura was sleeping. No comments upon what her yacht did for electric power during 18 day passages off shore. Did she have to run the auxiliary engine once a day to charge the batteries? Did she carry solar cells or a wind driven generator?
Anyhow, a heartwarming film. I enjoyed it. The photography is very good, especially for an indie film. Netflix has it.
There were a few technical details that I would have enjoyed knowing, like about her boat. I never did catch a name for it. She did mention that it was forty feet long, which makes it a big yacht. I never saw it sailing under Genoa job, the sail of choice of modern yachts. Did Laura know celestial navigation or did she rely upon electronics to guide her from port to port? There are no shots of Laura holding a sextant or consulting a chronometer. No comments upon how well the autopilot could hold course at night while Laura was sleeping. No comments upon what her yacht did for electric power during 18 day passages off shore. Did she have to run the auxiliary engine once a day to charge the batteries? Did she carry solar cells or a wind driven generator?
Anyhow, a heartwarming film. I enjoyed it. The photography is very good, especially for an indie film. Netflix has it.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
International Aviation Market Forecast for 2015
Interesting chart in Aviation Week about commercial aircraft production. Comercial being jetliners, regional jet liners, utility aircraft. No biz jets. No military aircraft and no helicopters. Sales forecasts are all for the next ten years.
First thing that comes out in that there are only two real makers of full sized jet airliners, Airbus and Boeing. Airbus is projected to build 7000 jet liners. Boeing is projected to build 7400. When you think that each aircraft sells for $50-100 million, that's a lotta business.
Then there are builders who are pretty much dead. Ilyushin is projected to build just two IL-96 wide body jetliners. At that production rate, they are losing barrels of money on each plane. And we have Tupolev's TU 204/214 single aisle jet liner with a forecast of a mere 9 aircraft. Let's guess the Russian government is subsidizing Ilyushin and Tupolev to keep the production lines open just in case they can line up some orders. Good luck with that. I hear the Aeroflot is advertising that they fly western built aircraft on all their overseas routes.
Then we have the regional jet liners. These look like regular single aisle airliners, but they are smaller and seat few passengers, less than 90, as compared to a 737 which seats 150-180 depending upon model. The regional jet liner makers are new comers, Embraer (Brazil) , Bombardier (Canada), and Comac (China). Presumably it is easier to break into the jet liner market at the bottom, and perhaps small jets can be sold to the various puddle jumper airlines still flying small turboprops. Sales projection are a hundred or so for each maker. This market doesn't look all that hot.
And then we have some surprisingly strong utility aircraft. Beech King Air is forecast to sell 1302 aircraft. That's more than all the regional jet makers put together. The Pilatus PC-12 is forecast to sell 846 aircraft. Even though utility aircraft don't bring in the money that regular jet liners do, that's still a nice bit of business.
First thing that comes out in that there are only two real makers of full sized jet airliners, Airbus and Boeing. Airbus is projected to build 7000 jet liners. Boeing is projected to build 7400. When you think that each aircraft sells for $50-100 million, that's a lotta business.
Then there are builders who are pretty much dead. Ilyushin is projected to build just two IL-96 wide body jetliners. At that production rate, they are losing barrels of money on each plane. And we have Tupolev's TU 204/214 single aisle jet liner with a forecast of a mere 9 aircraft. Let's guess the Russian government is subsidizing Ilyushin and Tupolev to keep the production lines open just in case they can line up some orders. Good luck with that. I hear the Aeroflot is advertising that they fly western built aircraft on all their overseas routes.
Then we have the regional jet liners. These look like regular single aisle airliners, but they are smaller and seat few passengers, less than 90, as compared to a 737 which seats 150-180 depending upon model. The regional jet liner makers are new comers, Embraer (Brazil) , Bombardier (Canada), and Comac (China). Presumably it is easier to break into the jet liner market at the bottom, and perhaps small jets can be sold to the various puddle jumper airlines still flying small turboprops. Sales projection are a hundred or so for each maker. This market doesn't look all that hot.
And then we have some surprisingly strong utility aircraft. Beech King Air is forecast to sell 1302 aircraft. That's more than all the regional jet makers put together. The Pilatus PC-12 is forecast to sell 846 aircraft. Even though utility aircraft don't bring in the money that regular jet liners do, that's still a nice bit of business.
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