Do the Brits understand Brexit?

Surely the Economist (a Brit publication if there ever was one) seems pretty clueless.  They ran a 4 page piece in the current issue about "no-deal" Brexit.   The deal that Theras May has gotten thru her cabinet and was approved by the EU according to this morning's Wall St Journal, was a pretty mild Brexit.  Britain would retain her current membership in the EU customs union, which I think means she retains duty free access to the rest of Continent.   She would have to abide by a lot of EU regulations about labeling and  lead free solder and safety and radio frequency emissions and the like, she would have to pay up some $50 billion of previous committments, and a lot of other stuff.  She get to keep duty free entrance to the EU.  The Economist is all in favor.  A lot, nobody knows just how many, members of parliament don't like it, they think it is Remain disguised as Brexit. 
   Numbers I have seen show 30% of Britain's economy is exports to the EU.  If all those British exports have to pay the going EU tariff of 10%, a lot of that business would go to continental suppliers.  The Economist dosn't talk about this at all. 
   They do kvetch about Parliament rejecting the Theresa May deal in favor of a "no deal" Brexit.  They wrote about all sorts of unlikely problems, like banning of air service to the continent,  problems with electric power exports or imports, a Northern Ireland customs border, lotta other stuff, all of which seemed sorta second rate to me.  The Economist piece never talked about the effect of 10% EU tariffs on British exports to the continent, which to my way of thinking is the major problem with the "no-deal" option of Brexit.

Turkey day travel

Drove from Franconia to Bowie Maryland on Friday.  Took 11 hours.  I left Franconia at 6 AM after brushing an inch of snow off the car.  Did the backwoods shortcut to North Haverill and then took I93, to I84, to Tappan Zee bridge.  Rpads were clear.  Hit the New York border and then encountered my first potholes, on an interstate no less, and then my first traffic jam.  Good work New York State.  Found the old Blue Colony diner at I84 exit 10.  In the old days the Blue Colony had signs up and down I84 for fifty miles in either direction.  Those are gone now, but exit 10 looked familiar, and when I pulled off, there she was.  So I had brunch, coffee and a Belgian waffle with strawberries and whipped cream. 
   Looks like the American sedan is going extinct.  I saw a lot of econoboes, pickup trucks, cross over SUV's and 18 wheelers.  very few sedans.  Ford said they were going to stop making them. 
   New York signage is as bad as ever.  I only saw three signs for the Tappen Zee bridge.  I also saw three signs for the Mario Cuomo Memorial Bridge.  I guess the guv'nor wants to rename a landmark bridge after himself.  That will confuse the tourists but good.
   I started off with the car heater set to full hot.  Every 100 miles or so I would set it a couple of notches toward cool.  But the time I got to Delaware I turned of the heater and set "Vent" forfresh air.  A couple of printed Google maps got me to Bowie and onto my daughters street, but I had to use the celery phone to call and find her house. 

That Brexit deal

Lotta talk about it.  None of the talk I hear talks about the really important issue.  Right now, British exports (like one third of GNP) go to the Continent duty free.  Come March, that might go away.  If British exports have to face full EU tariffs, that will hurt the Brits a lot.  The Continent has ridiculous unemployment, which means plenty of Continental suppliers will be happy to step in to replace British suppliers.   So, what kind of tariff deal will the Brits get after Brexit?  More of the current duty free deal?  Full EU tariffs?  something inbetween? 
   The newsies are not talking, either  they don't understand, or they don't know, or perhaps both.

So who is reporting the narrative?

California governor Jerry Brown is blaming the wild fires on global warming.  President Trump blames the fires on poor forest management, failure to log off dead trees.  Several people on Face book  support that view.  The MSM haven't said boo about forest management.  Certainly, back here in NH,  we know that wood lands need some logging to take out the dead and fully grown trees to remove fuel and open up the leaf canopy to let in some sunlight and encourage new growth.  I haven't been in California for thirty years, and I never got out in the California woods to see how things were, and I am not enough of a forester to tell a well tended forest from a poorly tended one.  We get a lot more rain in NH than they do out in  California, which surely reduces our fire hazard.  Nevertheless I find President Trump's position, poor forest management,  fairly convincing. 

Hillary to run again in 2020

That's what the TV newsies and the internet are saying this morning.  The never ending presidential campaign rolls on.  Speaking as a Republican, I hope she does run again.  She is as weak a candidate as you can find.  In 2016 she had no platform, she brought a whole railway car full of ugly baggage, she made no campaign promises, and she never spoke about anything except in that neutral campaign speak tone that pols use when they wish to conceal their true thoughts.  If the Democrats are misguided enough to nominate her, again, Trump will have no trouble beating her handily, again. 

World War I ended 100 years ago today

World War I ended just 100 years ago today.  It was a terrible war.  It lasted four awful years.  The war wrecked Europe.  It created Soviet Communism, a menace to civilization that would not be defeated for 70 years.  Before the war, Europe had ruled the world.  After the war Europe could barely feed itself. 

    The tragedy is that no one in Europe knew why they were fighting.  Woodrow Wilson had to create the 14 points to explain to Americans what their war aims were and why we should join the fighting.  The Europeans didn't have a clue as to why they were pouring out their blood and treasure. 

    The spark that set off WWI was a Serbian terrorist assassinating the heir to the throne of the Austro Hungarian empire.  Naturally the Austrians wanted to retaliate and kick some Serbian tail.  Serbia was a small backwards 3rd or 4th class power, and what should have happened was a short "police action" where the Austrian army occupied Serbia, hanged a few more terrorists, and incorporated  Serbia into the Austro Hungarian empire as a province.  Unfortunately the Russians, for reasons that have never been explained, decided they would protect Serbia from Austrian aggression.  The Austrians looked to their German ally for support, and they got it.  "I'm 1000% behind Austria" was the tone of the German reply.   Germany was run by a nincompoop emperor in those days.  A more developed state would have a foreign office, an effective parliament, and various other institutions of government, that would prevent a single klutz from leading the entire nation into war, especially a war over a worthless piece of real estate like Serbia.  

   None of the leaders of the time had any understanding of how the industrial revolution had increased the populations, the economies,  and the will to fight all over Europe.  The European great powers were able to field million man armies, where as the last serious war, the US Civil War,  General Grant only had 100,000 men under his command at Appomattox.  Ten times the manpower, and armed with small arms so good we still use them today.  After the war, all the surviving leaders of 1914 said that if they had known how bad the war would be, they never would have allowed it to break out.

We need more nutcase control, not more gun control

Many, more than half, of the dreadful mass shooting are done by deranged people, people who every one, friends, family, police, school teachers, pastors, neighbors, knew had heavy duty mental illness.   These deranged people should have been committed to a mental hospital long before they cut loose and kill a dozen or more innocent people.   It's not the guns, it's the nut cases pulling the triggers.  Put the nut cases away and we will have less mass shootings.
   This needs very careful safeguards to prevent abuse.  We are talking about committing some one against their will, someone who has not committed a crime, yet.  The Soviets used to put their political opponents away in mental hospitals on flimsy evidence.  There ought to be some kind of board, with an experienced cop, a psychiatrist or two,  an experienced teacher, a priest and a minister, and perhaps more.  In each case they should take testimony from the accused nut case, his parents, siblings, friends, teachers,  and others.  The accused should be able to call witnesses in his behalf.  There ought to be some review. 
   Short of this, authorities, police, schools, should be more pro active when they encounter one of these nut cases.  Right now the authorities tend to just dismiss the matter to save  themselves a lot of paperwork.  They ought to take an interest, do some checking around, do a little surveillance, with an eye to prosecution.