What is the Corona virus death rate?

Death rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases, and multiplying the resulting fraction by 100 to make it into percent.  So far so good.  We are pretty sure that we don't know the true number of cases of Corona virus (COVID-19).  We only call it a case when some brand new test comes back positive.  We are no where near to testing everybody.  At a guess (wild ass guess, WAG) there are two or three times as many cases out there than the ones we know about.  We expect that as we do more testing, we will find more cases, which reduces the death rate.  Right now, using the numbers we have, the death rate from Corona virus is somewhere between  1 or 2 percent. 
  Listening to the TV this morning I hear about people who look healthy, feel good, show no symptoms. are testing positive for Corona virus.  This might be something wrong with the test (it's brand new and we haven't had time to check everything), or it might be these people have a good strong immune system, or the grace of God, or something that keeps them healthy.  We don't know if these people are infectious.  Maybe they are, maybe they are not.  Should these people be counted as cases of the disease?  Is it reasonable to call healthy people sick just because a test comes back positive? 

Spring snow. I have two inches down on the deck

And it is still falling.  Stupid Beast wanted out, even though it was snowing.  So I let her out, it was only a degree or two above freezing.  I left the door unlatched.  She understands that she can get back in by just pushing on the door.  She never closes the door behind her, but that is cats for you.  Spring must have missed her plane. 

What do the medics and the newsies want? Really?

The medics on TV seem more concerned with studies and papers about Corona virus than they do with curing patients.  They seem to be saying that by curing patients you upset their statistical studies of the disease.  I believe that doctors ought to be curing patients, not collecting statistics and doing studies. 

    Back in sailing ship days a British ship’s doctor came up with a cure for scurvy.  He proved his cure worked with a double blind experiment.  Half the patients got his cure and the other half got a fake (a placebo).  Neither the patient nor the doctor knew which was which to prevent preconceptions from influencing the reported results.  It was feared that the doctor writing up the patient’s progress would be tempted to report that patients receiving the real stuff were doing better than patients getting the placebo.  Hence keeping the doctor ignorant (blind) improved the objectivity of the experiment.  It’s good science, but it’s hard on the patients given the placebo. This "double blind" technique is still considered the proper way to test drugs and treatments now in the 21st century.

   Anyhow, the medics pontificating on TV about Corona virus seem more interested in good science rather than curing patients.  And the TV personalities seem more interested in trashing President Trump for his favorable comments on hydroxyl chloroquine than discussing how well it works. 

   Another strange thing.  Various bureaucrats, FDA, CDC, and others, seem to think that doctors may not proscribe “off-label” uses of drugs without their bureaucratic permission.  Me, I think the decision should lie with the doctor and patient, which means mostly with the doctor.  Most patients cheerfully accept anything their doctor says is good for them.  “You are the doctor” is the usual cliché.”  As it is, doctors are reluctant to discuss off label drug uses for fear of professional or bureaucratic retaliation.  

Networking Windows 10

Used to be, back when Windows XP ruled the land, that you could connect two computers and move files between them.  Somehow (Micro$oft programming weenies probably) that capability has been lost.  I have a desktop and a laptop, both running Windows 10.  They both talk to my wifi router; they both are connected to the internet.  I would like to back up a bunch of files on the desktop to the laptop.  So far I cannot do it.  Neither machine can see the other machine, let alone transfer files. 

   There oughta be a way, but so far I have not found it. 

What's a Samaritan?

It was winter, many years ago.  It was snowing.  I was driving Cindy and my kids home.  Cindy was maybe 15, old enough to baby sit my kids.  We are in the parking lot behind the supermarket in Melrose.  I see a woman a few parking spots over cannot get her car started.  I think of helping her, then I think of a car full of kids who really need to get home.  I make an idle remark to Cindy that I don't think I will be a good Samaritan this afternoon.  Cindy comes back to me "What's a Samaritan?"  This from a girl whose family made it to First Congregational Church  in Melrose every Sunday.  I know Cindy had done several years of Sunday School at FCC.
   Anyhow, it is perfectly OK to read the Bible to your children now that they are home for Corona virus.  Regardless of your personal religious views, I think every child ought to know the good old bible stories, Adam and Eve, Cain and Abel, Noah's Ark, a gospel, David and Goliath, Exodus and Moses, Joshua and the battle of Jericho, and more.  The oldest stories from Genesis go back 3500 years or more to Mesopotamia, the beginning of civilization.
   The King James version is the best version in English.  Long time ago I started reading to my children from a bible we had kicking around the house.  I get to the story of Joseph and his brothers.  In this low speed bible version Joseph's coat of many colors has been down graded to a robe with long sleeves.  We can all understand that a fancy coat of many colors might arouse his brother's jealousy.  Who cares about a robe with long sleeves?  I got a closet full of 'em.  Anyhow next evening, I stopped at a bookstore and purchased a King James version.

So I went grocery shopping today

The weather people are forecasting snow for tomorrow, so I thought I would go to the Littleton Coop today.  Some customers were wearing masks. Not much of a crowd for a Sunday.  We have a lot of empty shelves and a lot of little signs saying "Please only take two.  Leave some for others." Toilet paper is all gone.  I got the last roll of paper towels, an off brand, brown, which I never saw before. Butcher counter was closed, sign saying they could not get any beef delivered.  No pork sausages, just chicken sausages, pork is all gone.  They were asking $8.59 for a pound of bacon.  I will go to Shaw's next time and see if things are any better. 
   Either the supply chain is breaking down because everybody is hunkered down at home, or they have had some really heavy panic buying.   We might need to get folks back to work just to keep us all eating. 
 

Have the kids measure the value of Pi.

Have them draw as big a circle as possible.  Measure the circumference.  Measure the diameter.  Divide circumference by diameter.  Quotient ought to come out 3.14159.  Small errors are probably due to crude measurement methods.  Large errors are some kind of blunder.  Repeat the exercise on other circles just to make it clear that Pi is the same for all circles.  This will give some practice using the calculator and give a real feeling for the size of Pi and what it means.  To draw big circles you can use a pencil stuck on the end of a yardstick and pivot the yardstick off a nail.  Or tie the pencil to a string.