We are hearing more tough talk from the Chinese about how Taiwan
is (or ought to be) part of China,
and how the Chinese might take military action to make it so. Taiwan
is 120 miles off shore and the Strait
of Taiwan that separates the island
of Taiwan from the Chinese mainland
is blue water, deep enough to float aircraft carriers. The Chinese army is very big, bigger than
ours, probably bigger than the Russians.
Should the Chinese get that army ashore on Taiwan
(and keep it supplied) it’s all over for Taiwan. No way can Taiwan
produce an army big enough to compete with the Peoples Liberation Army.
So the secret of
keeping Taiwan
independent is keeping the Chinese from crossing the Strait. This has two angles, navy and air force. If Taiwan
can put up enough aircraft to sink the Chinese ships carrying the Peoples
Liberation Army to their shores, they win.
This can be hard to do. The
newest Chinese war planes are nearly as good as ours, or maybe just as good as
ours. The Chinese just have to put up
fighters to take out Taiwan’s
bombers. Taiwan
has to put up bombers to sink Chinese ships, and fighters to fend off the
Chinese fighters. The bombers might be
US made A-10’s; they don’t have to be 8 engine strategic bombers.
Or the Navy
angle. Best is a bunch of submarines,
they can stay submerged and just torpedo any Chinese vessel that needs it. As long as they stay underwater they are
pretty much immune to enemy aircraft. The US Navy and the Chinese Navy have
about the same number of ships. The
effectiveness of ships is largely the effectiveness of the ship’s
missiles. When surface ships meet in
combat they fire missiles at each other.
The ships with the best missiles win.
Best missiles have best range, best anti jamming features, best and
strongest warheads, best guidance systems. We don’t really know how good Chinese missiles
are. Afghanistan
and Ukraine
have showed American Stinger anti aircraft missiles to be excellent. Ukraine
has shown the American Javelin antitank missile as highly effective. We can believe American naval missiles are just
as good. When it
comes to aircraft carriers, the combat effectiveness lies with the carrier’s
air group. All the carrier vessel needs
to do is launch ‘em and land ‘em. It’s up
to the aircraft to survive enemy fighters and get hits on targets.
Used to be America
gave Taiwan
private assurances that the US
navy would keep the Chinese from invading them.
Now, with WRBA and Biden, nobody knows what to think. The Chinese may think we will let them invade
Taiwan. Who knows?