Balloons.

The Chinese have flown a sizable balloon over the continental US.  The Chinese admit to ownership.  They launched it from Chinese territory and it crossed the Pacific, entered Canada, and last was heard from drifting across Montana.  The TV newsies have been going ape over it. 

 

The military has discouraged attempts to shoot it down, claiming that falling balloon pieces might hit innocent bystanders on the ground.  I have a little trouble believing that. Montana has a lot of prairie that doesn’t care what falls on it.  It isn’t the way things are in the middle of say New York City.

 

So far, the balloon looks like a civilian weather balloon.  Shooting it down, although attractive, is close to shooting down a civilian airliner that got lost and violated Soviet airspace, which happened maybe 10 years ago.  The Russians took a lot of flak over that.

 

Government briefers have implied that the balloon is maneuverable, implying it has an engine.  I don’t really believe that.  I suspect it is just a free balloon that goes where the winds blow it.  Prevailing winds over the US blow from West to East.  Give the balloon a few days and it will blow out into the Atlantic. 

 

If we really want to show the Chinese that we disapprove of balloons over the US, we can launch a few of our own balloons to drift over China. 

 

 

 

Global Warming

 It is 8 degrees this morning up in Franconia Notch.  I am listening to Biden saying that climate change is the most serious threat faced by mankind.  That sounds foolish to me on a morning this cold. 

How much does Patriot really cost???

Does the Patriot anti aircraft missile system really cost $1 billion per system?  A Patriot system consists of a tracked vehicle to carry the missiles and the radar, 6 or maybe 8 missiles and good radar.  They sell tanks for like $50 million and a tank carries an expensive high power gun that Patriot doesn’t need.  The missiles ought to go for $10 million or so.  The radar would be a phased array type, which is pricey, may $20 million. 

   Add it all up and we have a price tag of $150 million.   That’s not cheap, but is a whole bunch less than $1 billion which is the cost of a Patriot system according to the TV. 

   It would be nice if some newsies checked out the costs on Patriot.  If newsies can count that high. 

 

Baldwin either did not know or did not comply.

 When you pick up a gun, any gun, even your own gun, you check it for being loaded.  Pop out the magazine, swing out the cylinder, look in the chamber to be sure no live rounds are lurking therein.  Basic rule of gun safety.  I learned it at summer camp when I was twelve. 

   Looks like Alex Baldwin did not comply.  The TV doesn't talk about that much. 

The Federal Debt Limit

 It’s a law (buried somewhere in DC) that sets a limit to how much the US Treasury can borrow.  Lately US taxes have been high enough to pay 60% of federal spending.  The Treasury borrows the other 40% to pay the rest of the bills.  Now that we have hit the debt limit, and there is a good chance the Republicans will refuse to raise it, the Treasury is limited to selling off various assets.  Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has said this will keep paying the federal government’s bills until June of this year.

   Last time this happened, maybe ten years ago, the government shut all the national parks and laid off all the “non essential” government workers.   This went on for some months.  It didn’t bother me.  My mail still got delivered, Air Traffic Control kept the airlines flying, I wasn’t expecting an income tax refund so putting the IRS on furlough was OK by me, and Cannon Mountain is a state run park, not federal. 

   This time maybe we could do some belt tightening to keep the federal deficit down. Like laying off those “non essential” bureaucrats for good.  Cut appropriations for the FBI, CPSC, FAA, CIA, FEC and others in half.  Look at military spending.  See what we can do to end “gold plating” of weapons systems, and improve the ratio of “tooth to tail” of all branches.  And Congress critters and their staffs don’t get paid until the budget is balanced somehow, more layoffs or more borrowing or something.   

    

Fireball Cinnimon Whisky

 I had read somewhere that Fireball was the best selling whisky all over New Hampshire.  So, to see what it was I bought a tiny bottle at the State liquor store.  I mixed it with ice and club soda.  The result was not happy.  It had a sweet taste, like sherry.  Quite strong actually.  Not like the whiskey I usually drink which has a hard to describe flavor.  It's good that I bought a really small bottle of Fireball. 

What happened to the Neanderthals?

   It used to be that carbon 14 dating of Neanderthal sites and modern human sites showed a 20,000 to 30,000 year overlap.  The Neanderthals were believed to had co existed with modern humans in Europe for 20 or 30 thousand years. 

    Then there was a recalibration of the Carbon 14 data that showed the Neanderthal sites disappeared about the same time that sites of modern men appeared.  Which leads to the obvious conclusion that Neanderthals lost the competition with modern man and were wiped out.  Unpleasant idea, but likely.

Carbon 14 data is tricky.  Energetic particles from the Sun and cosmic rays strike ordinary Carbon 12, and turn it into radioactive Carbon 14.  This has a half life of 14 thousand years, a good long time.  Living organisms take in both sorts of carbon.  When the organism dies it stops taking in carbon.  By measuring the radioactivity from the carbon 14 in the organic material we can tell how many years has passed since the organism died.  It’s a delicate measurement; the radioactivity of the Carbon 14 is not very strong, compared to say Uranium.   It gets even weaker as time goes by, 14 thousand years, Carbon 14 half life, reduces the radiation by half. 

  I am not hep to just how the Carbon 14 dating was adjusted, but the result moved the oldest Neanderthal sites back 20 to 30 thousand years, putting then up again modern men moving into Europe.