Monday, March 16, 2009

2300 Jet liners parked 'cause of Great Depression II

Aviation Week has a graph of grounded (parked and retired) airliners going back to 1989. Pretty steady rise from 400 in 1989 to 2300 today. The post 9/11 peak was only 2100. Two questions. What can you do with elderly airliners? How can Boeing's backlog of almost 900 orders for the 787 hold up with 2500 old but flyable planes sitting in the Arizona desert for cheap?

Is Osama still alive?

These folk think he is dead. They claim voice print analysis and comparison of the last dozen Osama tapes doesn't match earlier recordings which are known for sure to be from Osama. They claim CIA is getting it wrong. CIA has repeated helped bin Ladin by authenticating "his" audio tapes. CIA should NEVER comment upon the authenticity of anything from bin Ladin. The CIA seal of good housekeeping should never be given to enemy propaganda. Let the enemy do the work of selling their propaganda, don't do their work for them.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Plastic in the hot section

According to Aviation Week, General Electric and Rolls Royce are going to make the third stage low pressure turbine vanes from a composite material on the F135 engine for the F35 Joint Strike Fighter.
Revolutionary. The hot section of jet engines runs so hot that up til now only exotic nickel super alloys could take the heat. The improvements in engine specific fuel consumption since the 1940's all come from better alloys that allow engines to run hotter with out melting the turbine. Now we have a composite that can take the heat.
Composites started with fiberglass (still used to make boats and Corvettes) and moved up to carbon fiber composites used for the fuselage of the newest Boeing 787 airliner (so new it hasn't made it's maiden flight yet). Composites offer far greater strength to weight ratios than metals. This composite is made from silicon carbide fibers with a ceramic binder. The final trick appears to be infiltrating the material with molten silicon to fill any voids. The high temperature composite can reduce the weight engines (the weightiest part of aircraft) giving better fuel consumption and longer range.
Hot section service is the most demanding application. A composite tough enough for the hot section is tough enough for plenty more applications.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Toxic Assets

Newsie after newsie tells me that the US banking system would be OK if only those toxic assets would some how go away. Presumably they are talking about those securities backed by mortgages that are now in foreclosure, the underwater mortgages that will likely default in a few weeks, and the bond insurance ("credit default swaps") issued on the bonds of Lehman, Bear Stearns and other losers.
"Somehow go away" means Uncle Sam takes this dodgy paper and gives the banks some amount of cash for the privilege.
Why do the banks care so much? Probably 'cause of the "credit default swaps". These are legally enforceable contracts. In the event of some company (Citi? GE? GM? Plenty-of-Others) goes bankrupt, the proud owner of the "credit default swap" has to pay off the bond holder, the full face value of the defaulted bond. These deals looked really good a couple of years ago when the banks were stuck on stupid, and they look like instant bankruptcy bombs now. Some big outfit is going to go broke, and when that happens the "credit default swaps" will take down the holders. Where as if the banks could get good old Uncle Sam to take these things they are home free. When the big bankruptcy happens Uncle has the money to pay them off, or Uncle has good lawyers to weasel out of them, or Uncle runs the courts in which the creditors have to sue. One way or another, Uncle, using our tax money, can cope, whereas the tottering banks cannot. This is why bank stocks have dropped into in dollar a share (next thing to worthless) area.
Question for Obama. Is Uncle gonna take this loss, or is it cheaper to let the stupider banks take the fall?

Friday, March 13, 2009

How to actually stimulate the economy

As opposed to just wasting taxpayers money. The economy is sliding down the chute because of a lack of demand. Nobody is buying anything, and so the producers, transporters, and support industries are out of work. The lack of demand is due to petrified consumers. 70% of US GNP was consumer spending, clothes, cars, consumer electronics, appliances, houses, and luxury goods. Great depression II has frightened the consumers with loss of their jobs, destruction of their stock market holdings and wiping out of the value of their homes. Being rational, consumers are saving money for the rainy day they see coming. They aren't going to buy anything except groceries until they feel safe (or at least safer). Giving them handouts (like Bush did last year) or tax breaks, or more unemployment benefits, or medicaid, or student loans isn't going to make the consumer spend. The consumers are battening down the hatches and getting ready for Armageddon. Nor are they going to borrow any money, once having made the decision not to buy, obviously they don't need the loans. It's the fear of unemployment, not lack of consumer credit, that's killing demand.
To stimulate this desperate economy, we need to give money to institutions that will turn around and spend the money on something else. For instance, let's buy some tankers for the Air Force. Uncle gives Boeing money for the plane. Boeing has to spend the money on parts to make the plane. For instance half the cost of an aircraft is in the engines. So a billion goes to Boeing, Boeing sends half a billion to Pratt & Whitney, plus a lot more to all the other parts suppliers. The money is multiplied by about 1.75 as the prime contractor pays the first level sub contractor who pays the third level sub contractors. This is real stimulation. The companies HAVE to spend the government money, they have no choice.
So, stimulus happens when Uncle buys goods and services. And buys them this year, not five years from now. And this is the problem with the porkulus bill. Of the $787 billion, only 11% is spent this year, and only a quarter of it is buying goods and services. The vast majority goes for unemployment compensation, medicaid, student loans, hiring government workers, and other unproductive uses. The democrats used the fear of great depression II to fund all their favorite give aways for the next five years, rather than stimulate the economy.
What Obama ought to do is repeal the porkulus bill and do another one spending the money on planes for the Air Force, rockets for NASA, off shore oil exploration, high speed rights of way for Amtrak, nuclear power plants, ships for the Navy, airports for the airlines, and tanks for the Army. Then spend more on research into fusion power, genetic engineered bacteria that turn garbage into gasoline or crops that grow in dry sand, cellulosic ethanol, and a cure for cancer. Even if the research doesn't pay off for many years, the researchers will spend most of the money on equipment.
Right now we are in a tight corner. $750 billion for TARP and $787 billion for the ineffective porkulus has expended the credit of the US government. We can't raise much more by selling T-bills. We shot our wad, and wasted it.

Budget Booze

Here is my list of good booze cheap. Not that I have anything against the Jack Daniels and Johnny Walkers of the world, but these brands taste good to me and cost less. I buy by the 1/2 gallon (actually 1.75 liters these days) so the prices are the 1/2 gallon prices at the NH state liquor store. All the whiskeys are good with club soda or just over ice.

Old Crow Bourbon. Smooth, flavorful, $13
Evan Williams bourbon About the same but $17
Ballentines Scotch Nice scotch tang, smooth $20
Clan MacGregor Scotch Surprizingly good. Blended & bottled in Scotland $13
Canadian Hunter A good Canadian whiskey. Canadian omits the sweetness of corn and the tang of Scotch, leaving a good smooth drink $11
Booth's Gin. 90 proof so it has a little more kick than Gordon's $13

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Adobe Reader vulnerable to malware

A posting on Slashdot alerted me to a vulnerability in Adobe Reader of the ultra bad sort, the sort that allows hackers to take over your computer. There is a patch from Adobe. If you have Adobe Reader 9, you can load the patch from within Adobe. Just open Adobe Reader, click on Help and then click on "Update" and the patch will download and install.
The Slashdot posting implied that patches only exist for Adobe Reader 9, and earlier versions are vulnerable and unpatchable. If you are running earlier Adobe Readers, it might be a good time to upgrade. The program is a free download.
Most computers have Adobe Reader on them, it's free and it's a standard. If you web surf, you will click on a .pdf file sooner or later and that will start Adobe Reader, so this one ought to be fixed even if you don't use Adobe. After applying the patch, my Adobe Reader now shows version 9.1.0 in the Help About box.