Hard to tell. Germany, the biggest part of Europe is reported to be doing well. A few small fry like Iceland and Ireland have already suffered financial collapse and bailout. They are poorer now, but doing OK. Greece is getting a bailout, but they are bitching about the conditions the bailer outers (Germans mostly) have demanded. If the Greeks manage to irritate the bailer outers enough, the bailout will stop. Then the Greeks will run out of money and have to print their own to keep going. It will be tough on them, but heh, you want to speak politely to those who are giving you money. Either way, Greece is a sideshow.
Italy and Spain, both much bigger than Greece, are having the same problems. To many government "workers" and pensioners demanding monthly checks and not enough tax revenue coming in. Private investors have indicated that they won't lend either country much (if any) more dough. They have to cut spending (lay off government "workers" and cut pensions) and get their economy growing again. That means scrapping no-layoff regulations, and dropping license requirements that keep the unemployed from taking jobs. Spain and Italy are too big for anyone to bail out. Nobody has that big a bucket. If this doesn't work, they will have to print money or IOU's (which probably amounts to dropping out of the Euro) to make ends meet.
The financial press and blogs are beginning to cry terror about Europe. Undoubtedly some banks have been stupid and will get hosed when the defaults begin. Too bad. The world would be better off with fewer stupid banks. But the majority of European countries are doing OK (not great but reasonably OK), and having a few losers get flushed won't be the end of the world.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Crusading for Gaia
NPR is deeply into it. Just listened to the second segment of a rant against a copper mine going into Mongolia. To hear NPR tell it, this mine is ruining the Gobi desert, polluting the water, corrupting the noble Mongolian nomads. A third segment is promised for tomorrow.
So far, NPR has quoted a few locals bitching and one local who claims the water level in his well has dropped a whole eight inches this year. And the mine is spoiling the ambiance of the Gobi desert.
No mention of how many people are employed at the mine. No mention that the living standard in Mongolia hasn't improved since Genghis Khan's time.
So far, NPR has quoted a few locals bitching and one local who claims the water level in his well has dropped a whole eight inches this year. And the mine is spoiling the ambiance of the Gobi desert.
No mention of how many people are employed at the mine. No mention that the living standard in Mongolia hasn't improved since Genghis Khan's time.
No Kidding
"US regional airlines that can weather industry shakeout may thrive." Title of article in Aviation Week. Surely those that don't weather the industry shakeout won't thrive, they will be dead.
Monday, May 21, 2012
Longest and strongest or C
The old advice for taking multiple guess tests, like SAT. The answer with the most qualifications (longest and strongest) is more likely to be right. "C" comes from the observation that the test makers don't like to place the right answer first (A) or last (D).
Heard a piece on NPR this morning. Someone digitized the last twenty years of the Congressional Record. They didn't say just how this super tedious chore was accomplished. Text scanning I hope. Keyboarding that much pure political drivel rates as cruel and unusual punishment in my book.
Anyhow, the researcher ran all the congresscritter's speeches thru a school grading program that rated the maturity of the writing on a grade scale (12th grade, 11th grade, and so on). Back in the good old days, the average speech used vocabulary and sentence structure on the 11th grade level. In the decadent present day, the average has sunk to the 10th grade level. Woe to the Republic.
It was revealed that the grading program looked at sentence length and use of fancy vocabulary, with longer and stronger rating higher. Funny, they taught me that good writing uses short declarative active voice sentences, and short strong Anglo Saxon root words, rather than the longer and weaker Latin root words.
Perhaps the Congresscritters are actually getting better at speechmaking?
Woe to the students whose teachers use that grading program.
Heard a piece on NPR this morning. Someone digitized the last twenty years of the Congressional Record. They didn't say just how this super tedious chore was accomplished. Text scanning I hope. Keyboarding that much pure political drivel rates as cruel and unusual punishment in my book.
Anyhow, the researcher ran all the congresscritter's speeches thru a school grading program that rated the maturity of the writing on a grade scale (12th grade, 11th grade, and so on). Back in the good old days, the average speech used vocabulary and sentence structure on the 11th grade level. In the decadent present day, the average has sunk to the 10th grade level. Woe to the Republic.
It was revealed that the grading program looked at sentence length and use of fancy vocabulary, with longer and stronger rating higher. Funny, they taught me that good writing uses short declarative active voice sentences, and short strong Anglo Saxon root words, rather than the longer and weaker Latin root words.
Perhaps the Congresscritters are actually getting better at speechmaking?
Woe to the students whose teachers use that grading program.
Speculators and the Volcker Rule
No English language definitions of speculation or the Volcker Rule exist.
Buying and selling things when the writer dislikes the deal is speculation. Buying and selling things when the writer likes the deal is prudent investing. Like and dislike is personal and subjective. Deals that loose money are likely to be dubbed speculative. Deals in foreign currency, derivatives, sub prime mortgages and short sales are more likely to be called speculative than deal in stocks and bonds.
The Volcker Rule forbids some bank trading in the stock market and other places. It permits some bank trading. The differences between forbidden and permitted trading have never been spelled out in words. Some say that the Volcker Rule prohibits speculation.
Buying and selling things when the writer dislikes the deal is speculation. Buying and selling things when the writer likes the deal is prudent investing. Like and dislike is personal and subjective. Deals that loose money are likely to be dubbed speculative. Deals in foreign currency, derivatives, sub prime mortgages and short sales are more likely to be called speculative than deal in stocks and bonds.
The Volcker Rule forbids some bank trading in the stock market and other places. It permits some bank trading. The differences between forbidden and permitted trading have never been spelled out in words. Some say that the Volcker Rule prohibits speculation.
Advice for Parents paying for college
Or, students paying for college for that matter.
Advice 1: Don't enter college right after high school. Instead get out in the real world, get a job (easier said than done today) or join the service, hike the Appalachian trail, hitchhike across the country, anything but sit in classrooms. After 12 years of solid school, most student's motivation is exhausted. With little real world experience to anchor them, college freshmen are suckers for all the weird ideology pushed by college profs. College will be a much more meaningful experience, and your grades will be much better after a year or two out of school and out in the real world.
Advice 2: Pick a real major, one that is of some economic use and that requires you to actual learn stuff. Engineering, computer science, physics, biology, chemistry, math, business administration. Avoid gender studies, race studies, sociology, political science, theater, these are of no value to anyone after graduation.
Be aware that majors in Astronomy, English, history, art, and music lead only to careers in teaching. OK if that's what you want to do. If you like students, and are willing to put up with the sheer boredom of education classes, teaching can be rewarding for many. But for many more, teaching can loose its allure after a few semesters. Think over carefully. Same goes for an education major. Super boring, but mandatory to get a job in the public schools. Totally worthless outside the public school system.
Beware that geology, although a real science, is a favorite with football players because it doesn't use any mathematics. There are some jobs with the oil companies, but the field is not large. Think over carefully.
Advice 1: Don't enter college right after high school. Instead get out in the real world, get a job (easier said than done today) or join the service, hike the Appalachian trail, hitchhike across the country, anything but sit in classrooms. After 12 years of solid school, most student's motivation is exhausted. With little real world experience to anchor them, college freshmen are suckers for all the weird ideology pushed by college profs. College will be a much more meaningful experience, and your grades will be much better after a year or two out of school and out in the real world.
Advice 2: Pick a real major, one that is of some economic use and that requires you to actual learn stuff. Engineering, computer science, physics, biology, chemistry, math, business administration. Avoid gender studies, race studies, sociology, political science, theater, these are of no value to anyone after graduation.
Be aware that majors in Astronomy, English, history, art, and music lead only to careers in teaching. OK if that's what you want to do. If you like students, and are willing to put up with the sheer boredom of education classes, teaching can be rewarding for many. But for many more, teaching can loose its allure after a few semesters. Think over carefully. Same goes for an education major. Super boring, but mandatory to get a job in the public schools. Totally worthless outside the public school system.
Beware that geology, although a real science, is a favorite with football players because it doesn't use any mathematics. There are some jobs with the oil companies, but the field is not large. Think over carefully.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Spending Cuts first, tax hikes later
Congressman Ryan of budget fame was on Meet the Press this morning. David Gregory and some democratic senator were all over him for dreadful budget cuts, "austerity" and the need for a "balanced" (i.e. tax hike) approach. Ryan replied that his budget still spent 3% more than last year, as opposed to Obama's budget which would spend 4.5% more than last year.
Ryan will spend 3% more? With the economy growing at less than 3%? Arrgh.
Remember that real cuts only occur when we spend LESS than last year. If we spend more than last year, they are fake cuts. Ryan is proposing fake cuts and the dems are still trashing him.
Once we grant a benefit to some one, its nearly impossible to take it away. So just to prove we can do it, we need to do some cuts. Only after we cut the Federal budget back to 17% of GNP will I consider raising taxes to balance the budget. If we cannot do the cuts in Congress, let's allow pure lack of dough to do them for us. And pure lack of dough is coming.
Any tax hike just delays the necessary cuts.
Ryan will spend 3% more? With the economy growing at less than 3%? Arrgh.
Remember that real cuts only occur when we spend LESS than last year. If we spend more than last year, they are fake cuts. Ryan is proposing fake cuts and the dems are still trashing him.
Once we grant a benefit to some one, its nearly impossible to take it away. So just to prove we can do it, we need to do some cuts. Only after we cut the Federal budget back to 17% of GNP will I consider raising taxes to balance the budget. If we cannot do the cuts in Congress, let's allow pure lack of dough to do them for us. And pure lack of dough is coming.
Any tax hike just delays the necessary cuts.
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