Friday, December 22, 2017
Bitcoin bubble bursting
According to Business Insider, bitcoin has dropped to $11,000 today, down from $19,000 a few days ago. This ought to be fun to watch.
Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Education for STEM subjects
Wall St Journal ran a op-ed about this yesterday. The authors criticized American schools up one side and down the other. But, their complaints didn't resonate with me. The trashed both science and mathematics education for being "fifty years out of date". They trashed computer science for just teaching software and not teaching anything about the electronics that make the CPUs tick. And they plumped for teaching "discrete mathematics" starting in sixth grade.
The "fifty year old" slam doesn't mean much to me. Isaac Newton laid out the foundations of physics 400 years ago. They taught it to me in high school and I found it very useful through out a long career in electrical engineering. I know the modern physics, quantum mechanics and Einstein, but most practical problems in the real world can be solved with plain old fashioned Newtonian physics. Every kid ought to learn them.
Knowing how computers work inside at the transistor level is useful, especially if you are going to design computers, but software is a large field, employs a lot more people that hardware design, and I know a lot of very decent programmers who have zero knowledge beyond software.
They also push for teaching "discrete mathematics" ,a new term to me. Boolean algebra is what we use for digital design, but unless the student knows ordinary algebra, Boolean algebra won't mean much to them.
My prescription for better education is simple. Merely require all high school students to take one year of physics, a year of chemistry, and a year of biology. Even if the student has no desire to take a STEM major in college, they need some basic science to understand our increasingly scientific world.
Plus, it should be the duty of all teachers to make sure high school freshmen under stand that they have to take the right mathematics in high school if they want to get into STEM majors in college. All the STEM majors require integral calculus, and many require differential calculus and transform methods. If the student isn't ready to take integral calculus freshman year in college, he is out. All the STEM courses have calculus as a prerequisite. You have to get your calculus in freshman year so you can take the STEM courses sophomore year. Which means the student needs to have algebra, geometry,and trigonometry under his/her belt during high school. The integral calculus course won't mean anything if you don't have the prerequisites.
The "fifty year old" slam doesn't mean much to me. Isaac Newton laid out the foundations of physics 400 years ago. They taught it to me in high school and I found it very useful through out a long career in electrical engineering. I know the modern physics, quantum mechanics and Einstein, but most practical problems in the real world can be solved with plain old fashioned Newtonian physics. Every kid ought to learn them.
Knowing how computers work inside at the transistor level is useful, especially if you are going to design computers, but software is a large field, employs a lot more people that hardware design, and I know a lot of very decent programmers who have zero knowledge beyond software.
They also push for teaching "discrete mathematics" ,a new term to me. Boolean algebra is what we use for digital design, but unless the student knows ordinary algebra, Boolean algebra won't mean much to them.
My prescription for better education is simple. Merely require all high school students to take one year of physics, a year of chemistry, and a year of biology. Even if the student has no desire to take a STEM major in college, they need some basic science to understand our increasingly scientific world.
Plus, it should be the duty of all teachers to make sure high school freshmen under stand that they have to take the right mathematics in high school if they want to get into STEM majors in college. All the STEM majors require integral calculus, and many require differential calculus and transform methods. If the student isn't ready to take integral calculus freshman year in college, he is out. All the STEM courses have calculus as a prerequisite. You have to get your calculus in freshman year so you can take the STEM courses sophomore year. Which means the student needs to have algebra, geometry,and trigonometry under his/her belt during high school. The integral calculus course won't mean anything if you don't have the prerequisites.
Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Yesterday a 79 mph curve, today it's 30 mph
Yesterday the newsies were saying the Amtrak train was going 81 mph into a 79 mph curve. This morning NHPR is reporting the curve was posted for 30 mph. Either the curve did a lotta shrinking over night (unlikely) or yesterday's newsies got it wrong. If the Amtrak train was doing 80 mph thru a 30 mph curve, that pretty much explains how the train came off the track.
Some questions the newsies are too ignorant to ask.
The "new" line the train was operating on. How new? Most railroad right of ways had track laid on them back in the 1800's. Was this a brand new right of way, bulldozed out last year? Or was it an old line brought back into service? How many years ago was the track laid? What kind of ties were used? Prestressed concrete ( which lasts forever) or traditional cresoted wood (which rots out over the years)? Amtrak will run passenger trains over really crummy track. At White River Junction VT, the wooden ties are so soft and rotten that you can pluck the spikes out with your fingers, but Amtrak runs over it. What shape was the track in, really?
If the curve was really a 30 mph curve, how was the train crew supposed to know? Especially as this was the inaugural (very first) run. Were there trackside signs like on the highway. If so were the signs actually in place? If the crew was supposed to look in their time table, or look at some electronic device in the cab, how were they expected to know when they approached this tricky curve? It was dark, and this crew had never been over the line before.
It's been reported that $181 million was spent bringing this line into service. For $181 million I would expect them to straighten out sharp and dangerous curves. Just what was all that money spent on? Who was the contractor, and what kind of experience did they have in building railroad lines?
Some questions the newsies are too ignorant to ask.
The "new" line the train was operating on. How new? Most railroad right of ways had track laid on them back in the 1800's. Was this a brand new right of way, bulldozed out last year? Or was it an old line brought back into service? How many years ago was the track laid? What kind of ties were used? Prestressed concrete ( which lasts forever) or traditional cresoted wood (which rots out over the years)? Amtrak will run passenger trains over really crummy track. At White River Junction VT, the wooden ties are so soft and rotten that you can pluck the spikes out with your fingers, but Amtrak runs over it. What shape was the track in, really?
If the curve was really a 30 mph curve, how was the train crew supposed to know? Especially as this was the inaugural (very first) run. Were there trackside signs like on the highway. If so were the signs actually in place? If the crew was supposed to look in their time table, or look at some electronic device in the cab, how were they expected to know when they approached this tricky curve? It was dark, and this crew had never been over the line before.
It's been reported that $181 million was spent bringing this line into service. For $181 million I would expect them to straighten out sharp and dangerous curves. Just what was all that money spent on? Who was the contractor, and what kind of experience did they have in building railroad lines?
Monday, December 18, 2017
$22 million for a UFO study??
The newsies have been talking this one up. The Air Force had a UFO project going with a $22 million budget. This ain't news. The Air Force has had UFO studies going since 1948 (Project Blue Book). There was the Condon report in the 1970's. UFO's were first mentioned in the public press in 1947, so a 1948 Project Blue Book is getting right with the times.
And, when people see UFO's they tend to telephone someone, and someone is usually the Air Force. Or other agencies refer callers to the Air Force. And a lot of people see UFO's. I saw one myself years and years ago in Franconia Notch NH. For that matter I was on the flightline in Duluth MI the night we scrambled nuclear armed jet interceptors against a UFO that showed up on SAGE radar. So there are a lot of reports, and the Air Force, as a good bureaucratic organization, feels a duty to do something with all those reports, if only to file them.
So I don't find the latest $22 million UFO study to be unusual. The Air Force has been doing these studies for better than 65 years.
And, when people see UFO's they tend to telephone someone, and someone is usually the Air Force. Or other agencies refer callers to the Air Force. And a lot of people see UFO's. I saw one myself years and years ago in Franconia Notch NH. For that matter I was on the flightline in Duluth MI the night we scrambled nuclear armed jet interceptors against a UFO that showed up on SAGE radar. So there are a lot of reports, and the Air Force, as a good bureaucratic organization, feels a duty to do something with all those reports, if only to file them.
So I don't find the latest $22 million UFO study to be unusual. The Air Force has been doing these studies for better than 65 years.
In the Air Force we always had backup generators
Apparently the civilians at Atlanta airport did not. When their power went out, they shut down, closed the field for landings and takeoffs. That's not right. There could have been an airliner low on fuel needing to land right now, before the tanks went dry. It could have been after dark with airliners on final approach, following the runway lights, which suddenly go dark
The Air Force always had engine driven generators on base, enough to run essential stuff, the runway lights, the tower and its radios, the instrument landing system (ILS), the ground controlled approach (GCA) radar, the beacon, the nav aids, TACAN and VOR, and some flight line lighting. We could fly even with a power outage.
I think the civilian airports ought to be required to do the same. Having a huge airport go dark and shut down with out warning is dangerous.
The Air Force always had engine driven generators on base, enough to run essential stuff, the runway lights, the tower and its radios, the instrument landing system (ILS), the ground controlled approach (GCA) radar, the beacon, the nav aids, TACAN and VOR, and some flight line lighting. We could fly even with a power outage.
I think the civilian airports ought to be required to do the same. Having a huge airport go dark and shut down with out warning is dangerous.
Sunday, December 17, 2017
Trump Tax plan hits "the rich"
All though the top rate ($500,000 and up) drops from 39.6% to 37%, the next rate, 35% used to start at $425,000. Under the Trump tax plan, you hit the 35% bracket at $200,000. In short a whole bunch of reasonable well off taxpayers got boosted up into the 35% bracket, whereas under current law, they paid 32%. The really rich save 2.6% but the quite well off get hit for 3% more.
The middle class ($38,701 to $93,701) get a 3% to 4% cut.
This is just looking at rates, I did not figure in the effects of doubling the standard deduction.
The middle class ($38,701 to $93,701) get a 3% to 4% cut.
This is just looking at rates, I did not figure in the effects of doubling the standard deduction.
Saturday, December 16, 2017
How to tell an advanced economy when you see one
Simple. Advanced economies can export automobiles to the United States. All others have to import cars from the few advanced economies that can make them. This year only Germany, Japan, and South Korea make the cut. Over the years the British, the French, and the Italians dropped out of the US car market. The Chinese are clearly thinking about getting into the US market but they are not here, yet.
That's a remarkably small list. Nice thing is that they are all three solid US allies (now).
The British had a nice US export business in sports cars in the '40s and '50s. Road and Track magazine was started for sports car owners, owning mostly Austin Healey, Jaguar, MG, Morgan, and Triumph sports cars. The imported sports car business finally began to fade in the '70s partly due to competition from Ford Mustangs, and partly due to the truly awful reputation for flakiness that British quality control (or lack of it) created. "Lucas, Prince of Darkness" was the slam directed at British electrical systems (all built by Lucas). The Italians had the same problem, Fiat was said to stand for "Fix it Again Tony". The French tried to sell the Citroen DS-19, a distinctively styled car, very low, tail lights mounted on the roof, and an enormously complex hydraulic system that was virtually unrepairable. Later they tried with Peugeot sedans. I can remember car pooling out to Raytheon with a guy who drove a Peugeot. In the winter he had to open the hood, remove some strange engine part and bring it inside to keep it warm so the car would start at 5 PM.
That's a remarkably small list. Nice thing is that they are all three solid US allies (now).
The British had a nice US export business in sports cars in the '40s and '50s. Road and Track magazine was started for sports car owners, owning mostly Austin Healey, Jaguar, MG, Morgan, and Triumph sports cars. The imported sports car business finally began to fade in the '70s partly due to competition from Ford Mustangs, and partly due to the truly awful reputation for flakiness that British quality control (or lack of it) created. "Lucas, Prince of Darkness" was the slam directed at British electrical systems (all built by Lucas). The Italians had the same problem, Fiat was said to stand for "Fix it Again Tony". The French tried to sell the Citroen DS-19, a distinctively styled car, very low, tail lights mounted on the roof, and an enormously complex hydraulic system that was virtually unrepairable. Later they tried with Peugeot sedans. I can remember car pooling out to Raytheon with a guy who drove a Peugeot. In the winter he had to open the hood, remove some strange engine part and bring it inside to keep it warm so the car would start at 5 PM.
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