Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Kim Jong Il may be ill. Or dead or dying

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il failed to appear on the reviewing stand for the North Korean version of a Fourth of July parade. He hasn't been seen in public for several weeks, creating speculation that he is dead or dying.
If so, the world gets to see if the North Koreans have a succession plan. Last time, Kim Il Jong managed to pass the dictatorship to his son, Kim Jong Il without a ruckus. If there is an heir apparent this time, I never heard of him. If the seccession doesn't pass smoothly to someone, the country may fall apart. Leading to a sticky situation.
The South Koreans will face intense pressure to intervene to maintain order and rescue numerous relatives from the chaos that will break out. The Chinese will be under pressure to intervene to maintain North Korean as a buffer state. They certainly don't want the pro American South Koreans to expand North and become their new neighbor. The possibilities for serious trouble are obvious.

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