Monday, April 30, 2018

Trump vs the NORKs

Hard to tell how things are going.  According to the newsies, Kim Jong whats-his-face has offered to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.  Assuming that's what Kim really said, and not an overly wishful translation by peacenik newsies, it's good.  That's more and better  than any NORK offer since 1953.   Granted we have some well founded trust issues with the NORKS, i.e. we think they are liars, it's still good to have them making the denuclearization offer.
   And certainly we have one idea of what denuclearization means and the NORKs have another, and we may not be able to come up with a compromise acceptable to both sides,  there is still a possibility of success  We ought to go for it.
    Big question.  Why is Kim making nice now?  Possibly the US led trade embargo is beginning to bite?  Possibly the Chinese are worried about American tariffs on their goods killing their economy, and so have decided to make nice with the Americans by leaning on Kim?  My sources say that the NORKs are totally dependent upon imports of fuel and food from China.  Perhaps the Chinese are telling Kim to cool it with the Yankees or face a cutoff of vital imports. Although the Chinese like having the NORKs around as a buffer state between them and the pushy American allied South Koreans, and as an attack dog who they can sic on the Americans any time they want to , they cannot be happy with the idea of a nuclear armed North Korea.  And both we and the Chinese have doubts about the stability of Kim's government.  If  revolution breaks out in the North,  the Chinese fear that the South will take over all of Korea, the way West Germany took over all of Germany.  Bye-bye buffer state and attack dog.  So the Chinese may be reining Kim in to prevent him from over stressing his hold on power in the North.
   Who knows? 
   If things work out right, President Trump ought to get a Nobel Peace Prize. 

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