Thursday, January 10, 2019

Near Money and the federal deficit.

Money goes back to King Croesus of Lydia, 595-547 BC.   In his time money was precious metals (gold or silver, sometimes copper) stamped into coins of uniform size and purity.  Coins made commerce easier, you could do a deal by simply counting the coins,  prior to that,  you had to find a balance and a set of trusted weights and weigh the gold or silver in order to do the deal. 
   In those days there was not much that could be done to alter the money supply, short of a silver or gold strike.  The Athenian fleet that crushed the Persians at Salamis was built with the proceeds of a rich silver strike on Athenian soil.  More commonly kings would debase the coinage by adding lead to the silver or copper to the gold.  But they could not debase the coinage so far that the coins looked funny, which was probably in the order of 50%, which is the same as doubling the money supply.
   Paper money was invented in the middle ages, after Gutenberg invented printing.   The obvious benefit was there was no shortage of paper and the king could print as much money as he needed to meet payroll when times were tight.  The drawback to paper money is a lot of people distrust [ed] it.  As late as the American Revolution the printing of Continental dollars to finance the war was controversial and there is language in the Constitution forbidding the states to "make Anything but Gold and Silver coin a Tender in Payment of Debts"
   Paper money finally won, certainly because huge amounts of money were needed to run the huge new economies that came out of the Industrial Revolution.  There just isn't enough gold and silver to make the vast modern economies work.  We also learned that printing too much money reduces it's buying power.  When I was a child ice cream cones were 5 cents, comic books were 10 cents, and gasoline was 28 cents.  Now ice cream cones are $2.50, comic books are $4-$5, and gasoline is $2.80.  In short the buying power of the US dollar has gone down by a factor of ten over my lifetime. Any money in bank accounts is only worth a tenth of what it was worth 60 years ago. 
    Now we come to my college economics course,  using Samuelson as a text,   Samuelson wrote about "near money" by which he meant government bonds.  He wrote that issuing a bond was just about the same as printing new dollar bills.  Consider the US T-bill.  It is backed by the full faith and credence of the United States, the most powerful nation on earth with an enviable record of never welshing on its debts.  There is a bond market, where the bond can be converted into real cash on any working day,  Holding a bond is nearly as good as holding cash, plus you earn interest on the bond.  So Samuelson called government bonds "near money". 
   Now we get the point.  When the federal government is short on money, ("runs a deficit") it sells bonds  to raise the cash to meet its bills.  Which is just about the same as printing dollar bills.  It's inflationary,  Printing money is why the value of the US dollar has dropped to a tenth of what it was when I was a child.  Printing "near money: works about the same. 
  So far, despite humongous deficits run up by Obama, and the humongous bond sales to make payroll, the inflation rate has remained under 2%.  Dunno how that  happens, but is has. 

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