Siege. Starve out the enemy

 Traditional way to take castles, cities, and the like.  Surround them, cut off their supplies, and wait for their food to run out.  It has worked for thousands of years.  From what I see on TV (reliable that is) the Russians have not yet surrounded Kyiv.  Last general I remember who neglected this essential step was German general Paulus at Stalingrad.  He was defeated and he and his entire army was killed or captured. 

Air Supply for Ukraine.

 We could fly weapons into Ukraine.  They must have at least one airport in Ukrainian hands, far enough back to avoid Spetnaz snipers taking the runways under fire.  Use big USAF transports.  Give them fighter escort just in case.  Equip then with Common Missile Warning System which uses TV cameras to detect a SAM launch and the microprocessor gets on the aircraft intercom and cries “Missile missile missile”.  That gets the crew’s attention every time.  Also equip the transports with flare dispensers and radar jammers to deflect any missiles launched.  Land on the Ukraine airport.  Pop the rear cargo door open and push all the pallets full of supplies and weapons out of the aircraft and onto waiting trucks.  Close rear cargo door and takeoff immediately. 

What Schools should be teaching. Part II

 Public speaking.  All too many kids simply do not understand about speaking up and speaking clearly.  At my old high school all seniors were required to take public speaking which met once a week.  The course was taught by the school headmaster, old Daniel D. Test (Master Dan).  He taught it in the old school theater (the school has since built a fine big new theater).  We had to say our piece from the stage.  Master Dan would seat in the back most row of seats to insure that we spoke up so he could hear us.  Every so often some luckless student would hear Master Dan shout out "I cannot hear you!" from the back row. 

Some years later, taking Air Force ROTC, we had close order drill, from an Air Force Manual 54-12.  There was a section that discussed "command voice" and the need to give commands loudly and clearly when drilling cadets (or troops).  At debriefing after one after noon drill session I was gratified to here one to the instructors, a commissioned Air Force officer, say "Mr. Starr had the only decent command voice out there this afternoon."  I didn't say anything, but I thought back on Master Dan's public speaking course.   

Today we have a lot of people who don't speak up, who mumble, leaving the rest of us wondering what they were trying to say and if it is worth asking them about it.  This includes people who ought to know better, like movie actors.  The old line movie actors, Humphrey Bogart, Gary Cooper, John Wayne, and company always spoke clear as a bell.  The new breed no longer understand about that, and they don't speak up and they mumble.  There was a scene in Game of Thrones with Jaime Lannister and Briene together in a hot tub sharing chit chat.  I would have loved to hear what they had to say to each other. I could not catch a word from either of them.  

Your children will go farther in later life if they understand about speaking up, loudly and clearly.

How long should it take to conquer and subdue a country the size of Texas

 So far the Russians have been at it for three days. According to the TV, the Ukrainians have put up a stout defense and slowed the Russians down.  I'm not an experienced Army guy (my service was in USAF), but I would have expected conquering a piece of real estate the size of Texas would take three weeks (or more).   I wish the Ukrainians well and I love hearing about Russians getting shot down by little old grandmothers wielding AK47s. I am not really convinced that the Russians have been repelled, yet.   Some video of Stingers taking down Russian choppers would be nice.  Some video of Javelin anti tank missiles taking out tanks, or armored personnel carriers, or just plain army trucks, would also be nice. 

Biden nominates new Supreme Court Justice

 She is a woman.  She is black.  I never heard of her before.  It would be nice to have someone tell what her judicial philosophy might be, or some important cases that she has ruled upon.  I am OK with black women, but it would be nice to hear where she are coming from.

Cannon Moun tain ski weather

 It started snowing around 6 AM today and it is still coming down.  We have at least four inches now, and more to come.  Skiing ought to be great tomorrow.  

Ask of 6 PM Friday, I have 8 inches of fresh fluffy powder snow on my deck.  Skiing will be first rate tomorrow at Cannon.

Sanctions against Putin?? Do any of Biden's sanctions hurt much??

 You want some good sanctions?  How about a 25% tariff on everything made in Russia?  How about blocking ALL Russian banks from any kind of support from western banks?  How about requiring all Russian visitors to the US to show vaccination cards, submit to covid testing and do a 10 day quarantine in a facility of our choosing.  How about refusing to accept Rubles in payment for anything?  How about turning US oil production back on, like it was under Trump, and supplying European fuel needs.  Greenies would freak out, but there are not enough greenies to matter in the November elections. 

Putin finally did it.

 US intelligence sources had been predicting the Russians would invade Ukraine.  Looks like they got that right. if a little late.  I haven't seen much video of the invasion yet.  

How much resistance will the Ukrainians put up?  So far, the video of traffic jams of people fleeing Kiev are not encouraging.  I am thinking of the British back in WWII where the Germans bombed them heavily.  The Brits had bomb shelters and used them.  There are period photos showing London subway stations (tube stations the Brits call them) turned in to dormitories.   No stories or photos of the Brits fleeing German bombing.  

   We could use some video of Ukraine troops (or anyone) using American Stinger missiles on Russian warplanes.  Years ago in Afghanistan the Stingers were good enough to drive the Russians out of the place. Stinger is a shoulder fired missile which means it can be anywhere, no need for fancy tracked launch vehicles.  Despite being light enough to be man carried, Stinger had enough punch to bring down anything the Russians were flying in Afghanistan.  

  We could also use some video of American Javelin anti tank missiles on Russian tanks.  Javelin is "man portable" although at 50 pounds, it ain't light.  It is said to have a tricky warhead than can defeat reactive armor on tanks.  And it can do a pop up maneuver in which it comes in low, shoots up high and dives on the tank striking the tank's roof where the armor is thinnest.  It has range of like 1000 meters, which means it can be fired at the enemy without risking your life.  

Both Stinger and Javelin are simple enough to handle that anyone can work them after the sketchiest of training. 

Biden blows another one

 TV is telling me that Biden gave Putin a list of cyber targets that he wasn't supposed to attack.  Dumb and dumber.  He just told Putin where to attack our cyber infrastructure.  You never tell adversaries where you are vulnerable. 

The Rhinelands vs nibbling on Ukraine

 In the early 1930's the Germans, who had been forbidden to militarize the Rhineland by the Versailles treaty, went ahead and militarized the Rhineland.  The other two great powers, the British and the French, stood by and let it happen.  Everyone had so many horrible memories of WWI that nobody dared risk any sort of military effort.  In actual fact, that year, the British and the French had plenty of military power, they could have intervened, deposed Hitler, and prevented WWII.

Putin just sent the Russian army into a couple of bits of Ukraine that had been on his side for years.  It's less than the MSM had be talking up, but it is still an invasion of Ukrainian soil.  It is not a straight drive of Russian tanks for Kiev, but it is certainly against international law.  Does Biden have the stones to oppose it?  Or who ever it is writing Biden's speeches and putting them on the Teleprompter.  We never have heard who is really running Biden, and what sort of backbone they might possess (if any).

What should K-12 schools teach?

 For openers, the three Rs, Reading ‘Riting and ‘Rithmetic.  Once the kid can read he/she can learn anything that is worth learning by simply reading.  Plus, reading is fun.  Settling down with a good book is a good time, IF the kid is fairly good at reading.  Writing is highly prized.  Companies will hire people who can write instruction sheets that customers can understand, advertising copy that sells product, procedures for manufacturing that result in quality product, reports to stock holders or government regulators.  There is more to writing than the Great American Novel.

   Arithmetic is addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.  Even in this day of hand calculators I think kids need to understand what is going on before the numbers displayed by the calculators mean anything.  They need to know about borrow and carry and remainders.  They need to know about percents.   They need to know about fractions and decimals.  If they have any idea about dong a STEM major in college, they need algebra and trig in high school

   Then they ought to have at least one good course in US history.  It needs to be real US history such as is found in Morrison and Commager, not Critical Race Theory.  In my day civics was part of US history, but it would not hurt to have a separate civics course.  In addition to teaching the division of the federal government into legislative, executive, and judicial branches, it ought to teach about the big state-small state compromises made back in 1789.  Such as the Electoral College, constitutional amendment procedures, and the bicameral legislature.

   A wood shop course.  I still remember stuff from middle school shop and I use it daily in my own shop.  Perhaps Drivers Ed in high school.

  When the kids get to high school we would be better off if we required one course in chemistry, one in physics, and one in biology of ALL students.  So much of modern life revolves around issues of science and technology that the country would be well served if the new citizens had a high school understanding of the sciences. 

  Things we should NOT be teaching in public schools.  Today’s political issues. Stick with historical political issues.  LGBQ and other issues related to sex and gender are not appropriate.  Perhaps a single Sex Ed course that explains about pregnancy, how to avoid it until after graduation, including contraception, and periods.  No more. 

Powers and Thrones, by Dan Jones, copyright 2021. 636 pages

 The middle ages run from 500 AD to 1500 AD in round numbers.  Historians will say medieval times start with the deposition of the last Roman emperor Romulus Augustulus in 476.  And I might say they end with Columbus in 1492.  The 500 to 1500 is close and easier to remember. 

 The first section of the book discusses the Roman Empire with emphasis on things passed down to medieval times like Christianity.  Jones misses a few points.  He does mention that the Romans controlled all the lands around the Mediterranean Sea.  He fails to point out that control of all the shorelines allowed the Romans to eliminate piracy in the Mediterranean.  Pirates need ports in which to refill their water casks, restock their provisions, and sell their loot.  When every port has a Roman governor with legionnaires to back him up, pirates have a problem.  So big a problem as to put them out of business.  Removing the pirate threat boosts the Roman economy since in those days everything was shipped by water. 

  Another interesting fact.  There is a histogram of Mediterranean ship wrecks over time.  The number of shipwrecks is proportional to the amount of shipping.  The histogram shows shipwrecks at a low level until maybe 100 BC.  It grows rapidly to a peak right around the time of Augustus Caesar.  Then it starts down.  By Constantine’s time we only have a quarter of the shipwrecks we had in Augustus’ time, which means Constantine only had a quarter of the commerce to tax as Augustus had.  Jones makes no mention of this histogram.  Either he didn’t know of it, or he didn’t think it relevant. 

 

Russian Video of tanks pulling back from Ukraine Border.

I watched the video.  It shows a couple of unfamiliar diesel engines, Russian design and manufacture perhaps.  Followed by a lot of flat cars.  Each flat car has one tank loaded onto it.  The video view is at pretty long range for a side of the train shot.  The train goes thru a steel arch bridge.  The bridge steel is all pink, a very unusual color for a steel bridge.  No rivets showing.

   I thought the whole video clip looked like a model train layout.  

Things must be getting tight in the car business.

 I came out of Walmart the other day and found someone had left a note in my car, offering to buy it.  My car is a 2005, 17 years old, a couple of rust spots, and a front bumper trim piece held together with duct tape.  Not what I would call a really good looking car.  

Maybe that semiconductor shortage the newsies keep talking about is getting really bad and Detroit just isn't shipping many new cars 'cause the cars won't work without those semiconductors.  Makes you wonder about car companies that allow themselves to become dependent upon something that they don't make them selves, or at least have a US supplier for. 

Supply chain is breaking again

 Stopped by Wallymart for catfood.  Last time I scored a 40 can carton of Friskies.  This time all I got was 4 cans for Friskies and 3 plastic containers of something else.  Cat eats two cans a day, so I only have a few days of food for Stupid Beast. 

Land lines are not what they used to be

 The phone rings.  I get out of my chair and answer it.  Sometimes I get dead air.  Sometimes I get a sales pitch so broken up by flaky caller's phone as to not be understandable.  Sometimes I get a foreign accent so thick that I cannot under stand it.  Sometimes I get a weak voice that mumbles and I hang up. 

   You would think the buyers of this advertising would do a little quality control and shape up the worst offenders.  They are paying for each call placed, not whether the call sells any product for them. 

What happens in Ukraine?

On the Russian side we have

1. A whacking big Russian army, and some Russian navy, camped out, in the snow, on Ukraine’s borders.  It would just take a telephone call from Putin to get them moving into Ukraine.  That’s at least twice, maybe more, the size of the Ukrainian army. 
2. Putin has the Germans, and plenty of other European countries almost hooked up to enough Russian natural gas to heat all their homes and run all their electric plants.  Putin knows (or he ought to know) that the Germans need that gas and will do a lot to keep the pipeline deal going, even if the Americans want to shut it down.
3. He knows Biden is mostly out of it, and even in his better days was not very brave, and will do nearly anything to avoid conflict.
4. It’s probably up to Putin alone, if he thinks invasion of Ukraine won’t cost too much he will do it.  If he thinks it will hurt Russia he won’t do it.  Unless we have another Oleg Penkovski (legendary sleeper mole in the Kremlin), we won’t know until it happens.

On the American side we have:

1. NATO and other treaties that give us a lot of support all over Europe.
2. Serious economic strength, far greater than the Russians have.  This strength would be better used if Biden made some straight forward threats of economic sanctions.    

Explorers 1985 Ethan Hawke, River Phoenix, Jason Presson

Cute movie.  The three actors are playing young boys, let’s guess 14 years old.  Young enough to be very cute, old enough to be able to do stuff.  They invent a spaceship, it moves by clean thoughts and righteous living, nothing as crude as rockets.  They evade a suspicious cop, they find off world creatures who know about earth music and flicks.  It’s fun to watch.  The young actors mumble a bit so I didn’t catch all the dialogue, but it could have been worse.  Naturally after adventures in outer space they all make it home safely.  Ethan Hawke gets the nicest role of a good kid, who has a girl friend, and stays out of trouble.  River Phoenix gets the role of super nerd scientist who creates the spacecraft.  Jason Presson gets a decent role as the kid who knows stuff, like welding and finding the more or less ready to go hull of the space craft.   Good watch for children in the vicinity of 10 years old.  But the time they reach 18, forget it. 

 

Russian tanks with wimpy guns?

 The Russians have been showing a lot of newsreel stuff of their army on maneuvers just outside of Ukraine.  Assuming this footage is recent, and not left over from WWII, I see some strange stuff.  A bunch of tanks with tiny cannon, like 1 inch (20mm)  bore.  The lesson from WWII is that any decent tank needs a three inch (75mm) gun.  Modern main battle tanks have moved up to 4 inch (100 mm) and 5 inch guns (120mm).  I wonder what the Russians are doing buzzing around in 1 inch gun tanks?  And I saw a number of Russian tanks with really narrow treads.  Another lesson from WWII is tanks want the widest tread possible to prevent them getting stuck in snow or mud.   

   Have the Russians forgotten their lessons from WWII?  Or are the Russian newsreels showing obsolete or training versions of their equipment? 

Biden is talking about leaving US citizens to sink of swim in Ukraine.

 He said that confrontation between Russian troops and US troops would touch off WWIII.  Not so.  We tell the Russians that were are getting our people out.  If they get in our way we will kill them. 

Brits claim break even nuclear fusion.

It was in the Wall St Journal today.  The achieved 60 Megajoules for 5 minutes.  That's enough fusion power output to cover the energy required to run the fusion reactor.  In more familiar units, a watt is one joule per second, so I read 60 megajoules as 60 megawatts, enough juice to do a lot.  Keep this up and we might be able to fuel our cars and keep our houses warm without drilling for more oil. 

Drug Rehab programs.

 Just the other day, as outrage flared up over Biden’s plan to issue free, taxpayer paid for crack pipes to druggies, several TV newsies suggested we put the druggies into a drug rehab program.  Good idea.  Question:  Anyone know how to run a drug rehab program that works?  Does 50% of the entering class graduate on time?  What percent of graduates are still off drugs one year later?  Two years later?  How many graduates are holding jobs, like right now, like one year after graduation?   Can we get any graduates to join a church?  How many graduates have hooked up with a friend?  With a friend of the opposite sex? Can we get program graduates hired into the private economy?  I have never seen any numbers on any of these questions.  

  In short, has anyone run a successful drug rehab program?  I expect such a program to have failures.  But I also want to see some successes.  If we don’t have any successes we are just pouring money down the drain.  If we can run drug rehab programs that work,  it is a better use of tax payer money than passing out free crack pipes.

I am sympathetic to the Canadian truckers

 They have certainly made Justin Trudeau (prime minister of Canada) look foolish and weak.  I agree with their idea that nobody should be forced to get vaccinated.  Those that refuse the vaccine are taking a risk, but it is a risk with their own lives.  If you fear infection, get yourself vaccinated.  

   The video is fun the watch.  I never saw so many red maple leaf flags in all my life.  The pix of flag waving crowds waving the trucks on are impressive. 

The other good thing, this demo is in Canada.  All the inconveniences, like Ottawa all parked up with 18 wheelers, is in Canada.  I'm in New Hampshire and it doesn't effect me. 

Booze or Pot safer than street drugs

Fentanyl is a super potent synthetic narcotic, about 80 times more potent than morphine.  Two milligrams can kill.  It is cheap.  Street drugs, good looking pills, are often souped up with fentanyl to make them hit harder.  Checks on street drugs show that 2 out of 5 contain a lethal dose of fentanyl.  Many of the current over dose deaths come from taking just one pill of a street drug. 

   If you are a parent, guardian, relative, or other person connected with the young, you want to make sure that the kids you talk to know that street drugs will kill them.  Encourage them to find a girl friend or boy friend instead of doing street drugs.  They will have more fun and live longer. 

   If the kid just has to take something, they will live longer drinking alcohol or smoking pot. 

   And have a word with the doctors.  According to the Wall St Journal, 70% of patients come away from a doctor’s appointment with a prescription for an opioid.  This is ridiculous.  And leads to opioid addiction.  After the prescription runs out, the kid will start buying street drugs until they kill him.  I cannot believe that 70% of patients need an opioid prescription.  I have lived a long life, and just once, after a very difficult tooth extraction, was I prescribed an opioid.  I would ask any doctor my kid was seeing how often he prescribed opioids.  The proper answer to this question is in 1% of cases.

Climate Scientists Encounter Computer Models' Limits.

 Front page headline in Monday's Wall St Journal.  I could have told them that 20 years ago.  I used to write computer models.  A computer model is just a computer program written to predict what will happen in the future.  If the model fails to give the answer the model writers want, they change the model code until they get the answer they like.  

This is not really science, not as Roger Bacon described science back in the high middle ages.  Science makes observations and preforms experiments.  The results are used to suggest or back up general theories.  When enough good scientists deem the theories true and the evidence sufficient, the theory becomes part of generally accepted science.   The models don't do experiments, and they tend to "correct" the observations they get fed.  I cannot call a model's results scientific.  They are more like science fiction. 

Newsies finally asking about that Nordsteam 2 pipeline to Russia

 Less that two weeks ago I posted a question here.  What gives the US a veto power over a Russian German project running under international waters (Baltic sea).  I never got an answer.  Just now I heard a TV newsie ask the same question.  Took the newsies almost two weeks to catch on.  The administration spokes weenie gave a baffle gab answer.  Clearly he did not know the answer.  Wanna bet the entire administration does not know the answer.  I believe the real answer is, "We Germans and Russians can build this pipeline.  We Germans don't want to offend the Americans by saying as much, so we don't say anything about it." 

What do masks do for Covid? Really?

 Any kind of mask will catch that cloud of muckiness’ from sneezing of coughing.  So the mask protects other people if you wear it.  Some fringe TV people have been claiming that you are infectious even after getting all your shots.  I don’t believe these people yet.  They never name the experimenter who gathered this alarming data, they never tell about the methodology.  So far the people spreading this rumor lack credibility. 

   Virus particles are small; you need an electronic microscope to see them.  That’s so small that the gaps in the weave of cloth look humungeous to a virus.  When you sneeze a virus particle out your nose, it is buried in a droplet of “water” (there is a ruder name for the stuff) which is plenty big enough to be caught be ordinary cloth.  After floating around in the air of the room, the “water” evaporates, leaving just the super small virus particle which can go thru a plain cloth mask.  Dunno about those blue paper throwaway masks.  The paper looks to have a much closer weave than cloth, I don’t know if it is enough closer to make a difference. 

   Then we have the “N95” masks.  The TV people say they will stop anything.  They don’t give test results.   I have never seen one.  I never heard of them before this Corona virus thing got started.  So I have no solid information to offer.

  But, wearing a mask protects people around you.  Cashiers, waitresses, cabbies, members of your congregation, and others will feel better if they see you wearing a mask.  I don’t believe that wearing a mask protects you, just others.  The “N95” masks might be better but I have never seen one.  You are on you own about their effectiveness.

How about a couple of squadrons of A10s??

 A10 is slow for a fighter but plenty fast enough for a tank buster.  I think a couple of squadrons of A10's could clean out a few hundred Russian tanks no sweat.  The A10's could fly from stateside to eastern Europe in a day.  Transports bringing mechanics, flight line crews, spare parts, ordinance, whatever would only be a day later.  

Then send a couple of squadrons of F16s and F35s to provide fighter escort again MIGs .  Send the F35s so we can see if they really work against MIGs.  Send the F16s in case the F35s don't work.  F16s can go up against anything that flies.  There was an air-to-air exercise a year or so ago where an F16 repeatedly beat an F35 in mock dog fights.  This was in Aviation Week.  

All this force could be in eastern Europe in time to deter or stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The newsies don't talk about this.  Few newsies have ever been on a flight line. 

Facebook now pushing global warming

 We must all have seen those Facebook add-ons/comments pushing Covid vaccinations.  Those get tacked onto any post that mentioned vaccines, natural immunity, or a anti vax attitude.  I just noticed a new add-on/comment "See how world temperature is changing".  Seems like the pro vax push is running down or some thing, maybe their software weenies are looking for something to do, so now they are pushing climate change, just for fun.

GETTR is up and running.

Big Pharma has ad money to burn

 Just on Fox News, they run ads for drugs a couple of times an hour.  They seldom mention the ailment the drug is supposed to help or cure. Or they mention something I have never heard of, in small print toward the end of the ad.  As a consumer how am I supposed to know which of these new hi tech miracle drugs might help me?  

Effective advertising. 

More Cannon Mountain Ski Weather

 It did a bit of snowing overnight.  Getting out trusty yardstick shows that we got at least 14 inches of nice powder snow, all over the mountain.  Skiing ought to be superb tomorrow (Sunday) .  It was cold today, starting off at 10F in the morning and never getting about 15F in the afternoon.  Cannon had some lift failures today.  Brother John only managed to get in three good runs in four hours.  Should be fixed by tomorrow. 

Cannon Mountrain Ski Weather

 

It's 3:30 and I have 13 inches of new snow down. It is still coming down, but it looks like we are getting to the end. It's 22 F up here in the Notch. Not bad for February.

Crack down on guns. Guns don't protest

 New York's new mayor, Eric Adams, an ex cop who ought to know better, is calling for a crackdown on guns.  Guns are not his problem, criminals are his problem.  But he doesn't have to put up with DA Alvin Bragg whining in favor of criminals, and there are plenty of democrats in New York city who were dumb enough to elect De Blasio and to believe in anything they read in the New York Times.  

  I say every politician who calls for more gun control is a politician who lacks to stones to go after criminals. 

We need to do more than alert homebased units.

 The Biden administration is breaking their arms patting themselves on their backs for putting 8500 state side troops on alert for movement to eastern Europe.  We should have deployed them already.  The Russians have 100,000 of their soldiers on the Ukraine border, camping out in the snow.  Compared to that 8500 men in the US doesn't seem like much.  The Russians ought to know that unprovoked attacks on US forces can make the American's go wild and crazy.  Ask the Japanese about this.  Korea and 9-11 are other examples. 

  If we stationed a full US armored division in Ukraine, the Russians would not dare attack.

 

Tom Brady.

Farewell Tom Brady.  I am a casual Boston football fan, but I always watch the Superbowl when the New England Patriots are playing.  I clearly remember those Superbowl games where you got the ball and made a pass.  Connected, made another pass and another pass and marched the Patriots down the field to a goal.  Again and again in the same game.  Wonderful. 

  You are entitled to retire.  I wish you and your family all the best.  You gave us New England fans a wonderful show.