How long can "shutdown" stay shut?

Just asking.  So far, I haven't heard of anything very horrible happening.  Either we ain't very shut down, (lots of guys still coming to work) or the ones not coming to work aren't being missed.  In which case, some obvious cost savings spring to mind.....

Leaves are peaking up nicely

This is peak leaf weekend for Franconia Notch.  They are bright, and mostly still on the trees.  Won't be long now and they will be on the ground, needing raking up.  If you want to go leaf peeking, this is the weekend.  Even with a bit of cloudiness, the view out my windows is all bright yellow and orange.  

So how hard does sequester hit DoD?

Hard enough to make the generals flinch, and flinch a lot.  According the Aviation Week, the Pentagon figures Congressional deadlock will persist up to and maybe thru the 2016 election.  They are preparing for current and even lower funding until 2016 and beyond.  So
  The Air Force is talking about retiring 552 older aircraft, about 10% of the fleet.  On the chopping block, A10 close air support tank buster , KC10 tanker  and MC12-W (the Beechcraft King Air fitted out for reconnaissance). 
  The Army will loose 18% of its soldiers. 
  The Marine Corps will loose 7% of its soldiers
  The Navy drops from 295 ships to 255-260 ships.

Reducing the size of the Army and Marines means that in event of war, they have to work harder.  For Iraq and Afghanistan we were able to send the troops on one year combat tours and then rotate them back stateside.  If we run out of troops, then the combat tours get longer, they get extended, and the rotation home goes away.  It's tough on the troops, and tough on their families, but we have done it in the past.  In WWII troops enlisted for the duration, and nobody got rotated home after a one year combat tour.  (except the Air Force got rotated home after 50 missions, if they lived that long)

Goldie Oldie takes a hit from rank newbie

Last month, it looked like South Korea was going to buy 60 F15's.  Now we are not so sure.  The Koreans have announced they have re opened the competition, with the F35 and the European Typhoon back in the running.  The Korean Defense Minister said, "There is a consensus that South Korea needs the 5th generation fighter jet to deter the growing threat posed by North Korean".  Aviation Week says this means the F35 will win.
   This is a tremendous disappointment for Boeing, they were hoping for a big order to keep the F15 production line running.  But it's understandable, the F15 is old, and the South Korean Air Force really wanted to be flying something up to date.  Fifteen former Korean air force chiefs wrote an open letter to the Korean president  supporting  the F35.  On the other hand, it's a great boost for Lockheed Martin, who needs the sales.
  F35 isn't getting any cheaper.  Last month Aviation Week quoted the cost as $97 million.  This week they report that negotiations the Low Rate Inital Production batch 7 will be $96.8 million, LESS engines.  That's a biggy, engines are usually 25% of the cost of an aircraft, so with engines, the F35 is hiked up to $125 million. Each. Ouch.
   Plus, F35 is a totally software product.  The software to launch missiles, aim guns, jam enemy radar and drop bombs is still under development.  Only the basic "aviate and navigate" software is actually running in the aircraft.   Until that software is finished, the F35 is not a warplane, it's just an expensive trainer.  

Tom Clancy died today

Just heard the news.  He was only 66, which isn't very old.  I read and enjoyed all his books.  Clancy was really a science fiction writer, only his stories were set only a few years into the future.  His characters were decent, level headed, and competent, who overcame their challenges  with courage and persistence.  Clancy's book were always a good read.   He will be missed.

Retro Tech, Clothes lines

Despite having a perfectly good electric drier atop my washing machine, I have gone back to  hanging the wash on the line, in the sun.  'Cause it feels so crisp and smells so nice when I bring it in.  Much nicer than the drier does.   And it's green green green...   Saves 5 kilowatt hours of electricity, each load of wash.  If I was as hard core as my mother, I could dry the wash on the line all winter, she did.  But I probably will load up the drier over the winter. 

Pass appropriation bills, avoid shutdowns

This much bally hooed government shutdown happens because Congress stopped appropriating funds by law.  Used to be, Congress would pass separate appropriation bills, one for defense, one for Agriculture, one for State, one for each cabinet department plus one for each extra cabinet operation like NASA and FAA.   Used to be hard to get the votes to pass these, and they came thru late, and got later as time went on. But at least each bill could be debated on somewhat limited terms, i.e. the domain of ONE department.
Political impasses on a single bill just effected a single department.
    Over the years Congressmen grew stupider and more narrow minded and lost the ability to come to agreement on appropriation bills.  So one year when NO appropriation bills had passed, they invented the Continuing Resolution.  This handy invention says "All you government operations can keep spending this year, like you spent last year".   After a Congressional session of budget wrangling the Congress critters were exhausted, and would vote for anything just to get it over with. 
   The downside, as we are seeing today, is any attempt to exert the power of the purse requires shutting everything down, rather than just a single department.  The continuing resolution is the ultimate "must pass" bill, so any riders you can tack onto it, get passed.  Except for now and then. 
   First interesting question:  How long can the country go with the government shutdown?  Could keeping the government shut down save enough money that we don't need to raise the debt ceiling?  Mail is getting delivered, social security checks are going out. 
    Second interesting question:  Who wins and who loses?  If anyone.  We will know after the election next year.