Kim Jong Il may be ill. Or dead or dying

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il failed to appear on the reviewing stand for the North Korean version of a Fourth of July parade. He hasn't been seen in public for several weeks, creating speculation that he is dead or dying.
If so, the world gets to see if the North Koreans have a succession plan. Last time, Kim Il Jong managed to pass the dictatorship to his son, Kim Jong Il without a ruckus. If there is an heir apparent this time, I never heard of him. If the seccession doesn't pass smoothly to someone, the country may fall apart. Leading to a sticky situation.
The South Koreans will face intense pressure to intervene to maintain order and rescue numerous relatives from the chaos that will break out. The Chinese will be under pressure to intervene to maintain North Korean as a buffer state. They certainly don't want the pro American South Koreans to expand North and become their new neighbor. The possibilities for serious trouble are obvious.

Lipstick on a Pig

Fox news has been replaying Obama's "Lipstick on a pig" comment all day. Much as I enjoy watching the media bash democrats for a change, and much as I like Sarah Palin, I'm prepared to give Obama a pass on this one. It's a well worn cliche, I use it myself upon occasion. Obama is pretty bright, and he likely knew the cliche would draw a chuckle from the crowd. It's a zinger, but Sarah has tossed a few good zinger's Obama's way ("kinda like a community organizer only you have real responsibilities") . So maybe Obama is entitled to a zinger or two himself.

Freddie and Fannie

We taxpayers are gonna take a solid hit on this one. It's probably necessary, Fannie and Freddie bonds were sold all over the world and were regarded as good as US treasuries. If we default on the Fannie/Freddie bonds, it will weaken the credit of the United States, making it much more expensive, maybe impossible, to sell the bonds that keep the US government solvent. Right now the US enjoys the reputation of the safest haven for money on the planet. Anyone can invest in the US and not get ripped off, not get nationalized, and not get inflated to death. Even the Chinese, who don't like us very much, buy our T-bills 'cause they are safe. If the Americans welsh on the $5 trillion worth of Fannie/Freddie bonds, the rest of the world will not soon forget. And the world wide river of money flowing into the US will dry up. So the treasury had to step in.
Big question, what to do next? Do we really need Fannie and Freddie to finance houses? Up till the 1980's banks financed mortages from deposits. To get more deposits, the banks used to pay real interest on savings accounts. Today the banks pay depositors dirt, and prefer to raise money by selling bonds on Wall St bearing a hellova lot more interest than they will pay a depositor. Or, they sell the mortgage outright to Fannie, Freddie, or a gullable Wall St brokerage house like Bear Stearns. Trouble with the "sell the mortgage" plan, is that once sold, the mortgage issuer is off the hook. Assuming enough gullable buyers, the issuers will write terrible mortgages and sell them off for good money. That is the cause of the sub prime catastrophy.
So where do we go now? I think we ought to wind down Fannie and Freddie, over a ten year period. Have them buy ten percent fewer mortages each year until in 2018 they close their doors for good. Prohibit them from dabbling in the sub prime swamp. Prohibit them from lobbying Congress and from hiring ex politicians.

Want can I say about Sarah Palin?

Darn little that hasn't been said by others. She has dominated the media for the last week.

Technical experience vs people skills

The airwaves are full of talk about experience, who has it, who needs it, who brings what experience to what ticket. "Foreign affairs experience" is spoken of with bated breath, as if it were the unified field theory revealed but to a few. Actually, foreign affairs are about the same as domestic affairs, only the foreigners can't vote against you. So you can push them a little harder than domestic opponents and still get reelected.
A president comes into office and is immediately overwhelmed by a zillion professional advisers from the bureaucracy, the military, the intelligence services, the lobbyists, the congress, the press, academia, the party, and every joe citizen with access to email. There is no lack of experts on any question under the sun. The trick for the office holder, is to find the few truly knowledgeable advisers and filter out the zillions of loudmouths with mere opinions. Everyone has an opinion, only a few truly know what they are doing.
In this respect, Sarah Palin is well experienced. Taming the Alaska political machine, winning the governorship, acheiving an 80% approval rate, raising five children, dealing with a husband who races snowmobiles, and cutting a tough deal with big oil, shows a rare understanding of people and negociation therewith.
If God forbid, something should happen to McCain, Palin looks tough enough to carry on. And, she shares McCain's views, so a succeeding Palin Administration would not negate everything a McCain administration managed to accomplish. Her practical experience exceeds that of Obama.

Island of Seven Cites by Paul Chiasson

Sub Title Where the Chinese Settled when they discovered America. The author discovered a big, previously unknown stone walled settlement at the top of Cape Breton Island. It's in the gulf of St Lawrence, right on the northern end of Novia Scotia. The author gives a solid, spare no obscure reference, review of European exploration records of the area, going back before Columbus, and finds no mention of a European settlement on the spot. He suggests that Chinese voyagers from the heroic era of Zhang He (1400's) settled on Cape Breton to work a gold mine. He points to strong Chinese influences on the local Micmac Indians, matters of dress, advanced knowledge of navigation, sailing, and medicine. The Chinese were sailing to East Africa, and there is a Chinese map from the 1400's showing both sides of Africa, good evidence that they had rounded the Cape of Good Hope, a century before Bartholomew Diaz.
Chiasson points to favorable ocean currents that could carry a ship from Cape of Good Hope to the St Lawrence. The Chinese vessels were capable of round trip voyages from China to East Africa. Any ship with that sort of range could make the trip from an East African harbor to Canada.
Personally, I feel the voyage length is extreme, and there are plenty of more inviting sites to settle in North America than Cape Breton Island. Also, the Atlantic westerly winds would sooner or later drive a Canada bound Chinese vessel into a European port.
Since, it's a fascinating thesis, and the site on Cape Breton Island deserves excavation by a professional archeologist.

New Orleans dodges a bullet, barely

Thank the good lord, the levees held, and New Orleans didn't flood, again. On the other hand, it was close. That video of the water sloshing over the top of the Industrial Canal levee is sobering. If the water rose another foot, it would have poured over the top and filled New Orleans up just like last time. Sounds like a lot more expensive, federally funded levee raising is in order.