Wow. The diesel locomotive business really got started right after WWII. All the railroads wanted to replace their steam engines. This was a huge piece of business. Between 1945 and 1957 every steam engine in the land was scrapped and replaced with brand new diesels. The Electro motive division of General Motors got the bulk of this work. Old line steam engine makers Baldwin and Alco offered product, and Fairbanks Morse and GE offered product but EMD got all the business. 90% or better of all railroad locomotives were EMD built by 1960. All the competitors dropped out except GE, who still offered fairly decent product, but wasn't selling much against EMD.
Somehow, in the 1980's GE pulled ahead of entrenched EMD and today is the best seller, with EMD just clinging to life. GE did some $4.7 billion worth of diesel locomotive business last year. A handsome chunk of change, even compared to GE's other businesses (jet engines, heavy electrical equipment) which brought in close to $100 billion.
For some reason the new guy at GE, the one who sold off the GE corporate jet fleet, wants to get rid of the locomotive business. No reason given. That's some 10000 employees. The Wall St Journal had a picture of the locomotive production line, giant room, half a dozen big locomotives under construction.
Some business writer ought to do a book on how GE managed to take to diesel market away from EMD back in the 1980's. There ought to be some good stuff in there. Was it GE's AC powered locomotives that had greater tractive effort (pulled harder) and cost more? Was it sloppiness over at EMD? something else?
I wonder why GE now wants out of the locomotive business.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Tempest in Teapot
"Don't Trust the Chinese to make Microchips for the Military" Headline to a Wall St Journal op-ed yesterday. The writer, Dan Nidest, clearly lacks experience in the design of military electronics. Whereas it used to be my day job.
US procurement regulations require that all the semiconductors in a military gadget be "Mil-Spec" semiconductors. Which cost ten times as much as commercial devices, and are of marginal quality. The Mil Spec thing got started back in vacuum tube days. The military knew that tubes with extra thick filaments would last longer than standard commercial tubes. And they bought such tubes, for a premium price. Trouble is, there is no way to inspect the insides of a glass vacuum tube without ruining it. And so unscrupulous vendors put mil spec markings on ordinary commercial tubes and sold them to the military. And so, the military demanded that mil spec tubes only be manufactured on special production lines, under inspection by government agents.
This quaint custom carried over to semiconductors when they came into service in the 1960's.
So, false alarm. All semiconducters used in military electronics are made in the US of A. Not to worry.
US procurement regulations require that all the semiconductors in a military gadget be "Mil-Spec" semiconductors. Which cost ten times as much as commercial devices, and are of marginal quality. The Mil Spec thing got started back in vacuum tube days. The military knew that tubes with extra thick filaments would last longer than standard commercial tubes. And they bought such tubes, for a premium price. Trouble is, there is no way to inspect the insides of a glass vacuum tube without ruining it. And so unscrupulous vendors put mil spec markings on ordinary commercial tubes and sold them to the military. And so, the military demanded that mil spec tubes only be manufactured on special production lines, under inspection by government agents.
This quaint custom carried over to semiconductors when they came into service in the 1960's.
So, false alarm. All semiconducters used in military electronics are made in the US of A. Not to worry.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Dawn over Marblehead (Wall St) Finally.
Price of Puerto Rican bonds is finally dropping into the toilet. About time. Early in 2015 a Puerto Rican bond was selling on the street for 95 cents on the dollar. This price drifted down gradually thru out 2015, 2016, and most of 2017. It had reached 65 cents on the dollar by this summer. Only this fall did the price dive down to 30 cents on the dollar.
In actual fact, Puerto Rico doesn't have the money to pay off a nickel of the $93 billion that Wall St bankers were stupid enough to loan them over the years. It's been obvious for twenty years that Puerto Rico didn't have, and could not get, the money to pay off any of its loans. And yet, those clever Wall St banks kept loaning Puerto Rico more money. And trading Puerto Rican securities and bonds back and forth among themselves as if these securities were actually worth something. They aren't.
The amazing thing. The Wall St bankers only figured things out in the last few weeks. You gotta wonder where these people went to school.
In actual fact, Puerto Rico doesn't have the money to pay off a nickel of the $93 billion that Wall St bankers were stupid enough to loan them over the years. It's been obvious for twenty years that Puerto Rico didn't have, and could not get, the money to pay off any of its loans. And yet, those clever Wall St banks kept loaning Puerto Rico more money. And trading Puerto Rican securities and bonds back and forth among themselves as if these securities were actually worth something. They aren't.
The amazing thing. The Wall St bankers only figured things out in the last few weeks. You gotta wonder where these people went to school.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
OK, so Corker and Flake are bailing out
Two US republican senators announce they will not run for re election in 2018. They are no friends of Donald Trump, but up until now have been more loyal and useful Republicans than John McCain, Susan Collins, or Rand Paul.
They both come from reasonably Republican districts, which may elect Republican replacements. On the other hand, incumbents usually have better odds of winning the election than challengers.
Granted, Trump and his friends will have a more tractable Congress if Corker and Flake are replaced by Republicans. If they are replaced by democrats, life will be harder for the administration. The Republican control of the Senate rests on a mere two seats.
Note to Steve Bannion. You would do the party more good by attacking democrats, rather than Republicans.
They both come from reasonably Republican districts, which may elect Republican replacements. On the other hand, incumbents usually have better odds of winning the election than challengers.
Granted, Trump and his friends will have a more tractable Congress if Corker and Flake are replaced by Republicans. If they are replaced by democrats, life will be harder for the administration. The Republican control of the Senate rests on a mere two seats.
Note to Steve Bannion. You would do the party more good by attacking democrats, rather than Republicans.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Opioid Crisis Some more bad stuff
Article in a local paper said that opioid prescriptions were down, from about 90% of patients in 2014 to maybe 70% in 2016. The article didn't bother to explain the percent numbers (typical of newsies who are totally innumerate). I'm guessing that it is the number of opioid prescriptions written over the total number of patients. Any one please feel free to correct me on this.
If this is progress we are doomed.
I take my self to the doctor today. I used to bring all three children to the doctor along with my wife. For 50 years, 200-300 doctor appointments at least. Never did I or any of my family receive a prescription for opioids. That's an opioid prescription rate of 0 for me and my family.
To hear that an opioid prescription rate of 70% is an improvement is ridiculous.
I can believe that there are some people with real pain problems for whom opioids are indicated. I cannot believe that 70% of people have real pain problems.
I am aware that most of the overdose deaths are caused by heroin and fentanyl , both of which are illegal. I'd like to know how many of these overdose cases got started with prescription opioids. I have never seen any numbers on this. But if 70% of patients are started on opioids, you gotta believe that a lot of 'em move over to cheaper (but more dangerous) street drugs.
If this is progress we are doomed.
I take my self to the doctor today. I used to bring all three children to the doctor along with my wife. For 50 years, 200-300 doctor appointments at least. Never did I or any of my family receive a prescription for opioids. That's an opioid prescription rate of 0 for me and my family.
To hear that an opioid prescription rate of 70% is an improvement is ridiculous.
I can believe that there are some people with real pain problems for whom opioids are indicated. I cannot believe that 70% of people have real pain problems.
I am aware that most of the overdose deaths are caused by heroin and fentanyl , both of which are illegal. I'd like to know how many of these overdose cases got started with prescription opioids. I have never seen any numbers on this. But if 70% of patients are started on opioids, you gotta believe that a lot of 'em move over to cheaper (but more dangerous) street drugs.
Monday, October 23, 2017
Whither the EU?
Just as it looked like the EU was coming together, the Brits pull out. Britain is the number 2 EU country, just behind Germany and ahead of France in terms of GNP, population, diplomatic effectiveness, American connections, lotta things. To have your Number 2 member pull out has gotta be disheartening for the advocates of European unity.
And we may have further breakups in the works. Catalonia, an important Spanish province, has voted in a referendum to succeed from Spain. There has been some pushback by the government of Spain, and some stories about how turnout for the referendum was very light, say 20%. If that's true, it says that only the hard core Catalans came out to vote. And, if the Catalans succeed, the Basque region will be right behind. And the Scots and the Welsh are making noises about pulling out of the United Kingdom (Britain). That's four small provinces making succession noises. Although I don't remember hearing anyone from these proto-mini-nations talk about joining the EU, it's a good bet that some, maybe all of 'em will apply for EU membership after they make their succession good.
The EU got started right after WWII. The European survivors of that disaster wanted to prevent WWIII by welding Europe together into a single country. The Americans were all in favor for that reason and to present a united front against Russian Communism. It started small with a trade deal called the European Coal and Steel Community. I don't remember, perhaps never knew, just what kind of a deal this was, but it worked. Sometime in the 1960's the Common Market was declared. Initially the Common Market had a mere six members, and Britain was not one of them. In fact the Brits put together a trade block of their own, which lasted for some years. Eventually the Brits, and their trade block joined the EU. Then the Soviets collapsed and all the Warsaw pact satellites rushed to sign up with the EU as a defense against Soviet revanchism. Then the big step, the Europeans launched a successful European currency, the Euro and that worked.
But, the EU never was able to pull together like the American United States did. The EU members never surrendered control of their armed forces, or their diplomatic corps to the central EU government. The American founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution talk about base principles ( all men are created equal) and distribution of political power (executive, legislative, judicial). The EU founding treaties are silent on most of the issues Americans find fundamental, and have a lot of happy talk about all the bennies EU citizens are entitled to, free healthcare, universal education, and the like, but don't divvy up the political power the way the Americans did. The American states yielded up serious and important powers (rights to have their own armed forces, right to operate their own foreign policy, and a lot of other heavy duty stuff to the new federal government. The European states didn't yield up an ounce of their sovereignty to Brussels.
Where to next? Will the rest of the EU hang together? Or will more members follow the British lead and bail out? Will the US offer Britain membership in NAFTA? What about other EU refugee countries? Stay tuned for future developments.
And we may have further breakups in the works. Catalonia, an important Spanish province, has voted in a referendum to succeed from Spain. There has been some pushback by the government of Spain, and some stories about how turnout for the referendum was very light, say 20%. If that's true, it says that only the hard core Catalans came out to vote. And, if the Catalans succeed, the Basque region will be right behind. And the Scots and the Welsh are making noises about pulling out of the United Kingdom (Britain). That's four small provinces making succession noises. Although I don't remember hearing anyone from these proto-mini-nations talk about joining the EU, it's a good bet that some, maybe all of 'em will apply for EU membership after they make their succession good.
The EU got started right after WWII. The European survivors of that disaster wanted to prevent WWIII by welding Europe together into a single country. The Americans were all in favor for that reason and to present a united front against Russian Communism. It started small with a trade deal called the European Coal and Steel Community. I don't remember, perhaps never knew, just what kind of a deal this was, but it worked. Sometime in the 1960's the Common Market was declared. Initially the Common Market had a mere six members, and Britain was not one of them. In fact the Brits put together a trade block of their own, which lasted for some years. Eventually the Brits, and their trade block joined the EU. Then the Soviets collapsed and all the Warsaw pact satellites rushed to sign up with the EU as a defense against Soviet revanchism. Then the big step, the Europeans launched a successful European currency, the Euro and that worked.
But, the EU never was able to pull together like the American United States did. The EU members never surrendered control of their armed forces, or their diplomatic corps to the central EU government. The American founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution talk about base principles ( all men are created equal) and distribution of political power (executive, legislative, judicial). The EU founding treaties are silent on most of the issues Americans find fundamental, and have a lot of happy talk about all the bennies EU citizens are entitled to, free healthcare, universal education, and the like, but don't divvy up the political power the way the Americans did. The American states yielded up serious and important powers (rights to have their own armed forces, right to operate their own foreign policy, and a lot of other heavy duty stuff to the new federal government. The European states didn't yield up an ounce of their sovereignty to Brussels.
Where to next? Will the rest of the EU hang together? Or will more members follow the British lead and bail out? Will the US offer Britain membership in NAFTA? What about other EU refugee countries? Stay tuned for future developments.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Driving down to a Boston Train Show
It was a lovely day, dry, warm, sunny. Leaves are a bit past peak in Franconia Notch, but are at peak down south. I93 was in good shape except the widening project south of Manchester hasn't gotten anywhere since I was thru there last. More NH infrastructure money spent with out improving the road at all.
The North Shore Model Railroad Club of Wakefield MA, of which I used to be a member until I retired to NH, put on the show. They had the swap meet at the Wakefield Americal Hall, across the street from the club layout. The vendors had a lot of rolling stock and some structures, no tools or parts. A fair number of steam engines that could serve as project locomotives, except I have two such project locomotive in my shop awaiting work. The crowd was mostly older guys, a few very small children who were entranced, no kids old enough to be into electric trains on their own. The hobby is not recruiting new hobbyists to replace the older guys who are dying off. The North Shore club had three member who I had known die just this fall.
The club layout is down stairs from Brother's restaurant on Main St. The layout is 90 feet long. The newest and last section toward the back is largely done. Benchwork is in, track is laid, trains run. Scenery is coming along nicely. The old core of the club was still there, still guiding the work. This layout was large enough to make a cover story of Model Railroader back in 1985, and it's bigger now.
Anyhow a nice day.
The North Shore Model Railroad Club of Wakefield MA, of which I used to be a member until I retired to NH, put on the show. They had the swap meet at the Wakefield Americal Hall, across the street from the club layout. The vendors had a lot of rolling stock and some structures, no tools or parts. A fair number of steam engines that could serve as project locomotives, except I have two such project locomotive in my shop awaiting work. The crowd was mostly older guys, a few very small children who were entranced, no kids old enough to be into electric trains on their own. The hobby is not recruiting new hobbyists to replace the older guys who are dying off. The North Shore club had three member who I had known die just this fall.
The club layout is down stairs from Brother's restaurant on Main St. The layout is 90 feet long. The newest and last section toward the back is largely done. Benchwork is in, track is laid, trains run. Scenery is coming along nicely. The old core of the club was still there, still guiding the work. This layout was large enough to make a cover story of Model Railroader back in 1985, and it's bigger now.
Anyhow a nice day.
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