Friday, November 17, 2017
I didn't know that Congress had a slush fund to pay off sexual assault victims.
Not sure just where I stand on this issue, but the fact that Congress kept it secret doesn't speak well of it. Nor does it speak well of Congressmen.
How did the Russians win WWII?
First it helps to understand the relative sizes and strengths of the great powers in 1941. Today, we have just two, maybe three superpowers, powers so much bigger and stronger than ordinary powers that nobody dares mess with them. Back then, there were more great powers (Germany, Russia, Great Britain, France, USA, Japan) and they were closer to each other in strength. Germany was the strongest and scariest European power, the US lacked the regard that it earned during WWII. Certainly Hitler didn't think much of America.
Hitler attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941, a bolt out of the blue attack. Hitler poured in 3-4 million soldiers, 5000 tanks, 10,000 warplanes. He caught the Russians by surprise, and captured most of western Russia, encircled and destroyed two huge Russian armies, taking 1.2 million prisoners of war. The Luftwaffe wiped the floor with the Red air force. That first year the Germans nearly captured Moscow. Advanced German patrols got as far as the Moscow trolley lines and claimed to have seen the domes of the Kremlin gleaming in the sun. By the end of the year, the Germans owned the Russian heartland, all Stalin had left were a bunch of remote frontier districts.
Somehow, I've never read a good description of just how, the Russians hung in there, drafted another 30 million men into the Red Army, picked up and moved a thousand factories from western Russia to remote Ural Mountain locations, got production of war machines going again from Siberia, and next summer at Stalingrad met the German army head on and beat it in a standup fight.
To do this, Stalin's regime had to have political control via the NKVD, and a lot of popular enthusiasm for the Great Patriotic War. Otherwise, those 30 million draftees might have decided that service in the Red Army was suicide and bolted for the woods. And just how did the Red Army turn draftees into combat soldiers so quickly? And trying to get a tank factory which had been dumped by the side of the railroad tracks back into production must taken superhuman effort on the part of the workers. Suppose the workers had lost heart and just leaned on their shovels?
In short, it took a miracle for the Russians to stay in the war, and fight back so effectively, after the tremendous damage the Germans did to them in that first summer.
Hitler attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941, a bolt out of the blue attack. Hitler poured in 3-4 million soldiers, 5000 tanks, 10,000 warplanes. He caught the Russians by surprise, and captured most of western Russia, encircled and destroyed two huge Russian armies, taking 1.2 million prisoners of war. The Luftwaffe wiped the floor with the Red air force. That first year the Germans nearly captured Moscow. Advanced German patrols got as far as the Moscow trolley lines and claimed to have seen the domes of the Kremlin gleaming in the sun. By the end of the year, the Germans owned the Russian heartland, all Stalin had left were a bunch of remote frontier districts.
Somehow, I've never read a good description of just how, the Russians hung in there, drafted another 30 million men into the Red Army, picked up and moved a thousand factories from western Russia to remote Ural Mountain locations, got production of war machines going again from Siberia, and next summer at Stalingrad met the German army head on and beat it in a standup fight.
To do this, Stalin's regime had to have political control via the NKVD, and a lot of popular enthusiasm for the Great Patriotic War. Otherwise, those 30 million draftees might have decided that service in the Red Army was suicide and bolted for the woods. And just how did the Red Army turn draftees into combat soldiers so quickly? And trying to get a tank factory which had been dumped by the side of the railroad tracks back into production must taken superhuman effort on the part of the workers. Suppose the workers had lost heart and just leaned on their shovels?
In short, it took a miracle for the Russians to stay in the war, and fight back so effectively, after the tremendous damage the Germans did to them in that first summer.
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Who has $1 million in mortgage interest?
TV news is beginning too, at long last, offer some some specifics and comparison between the House and Senate tax reforms. The Senate will allow deduction of $1 million mortgage interest. Wow, that' one helova mortgage if the yearly payments run $1 million. Jeez, I'll bet that would pay the mortgage on the Empire State building. The House would only allow a half a million. Either amounts of mortgage interest will pay a mortgage of $20 million or so. That's one mighty fine house. I skim the "Mansions" section of the Journal on Fridays. They show some very fine houses there, but you can get into one of them for maybe $4 million. Which gives a mortgage payment like $200K. I'm thinking the only people paying $1 million mortgage interest are professionals in the real estate business, like president Trump used to be. In short, this is tax loophole for real estate wheeler dealers. Me, I would kill the mortgage interest deduction completely.
I paid mortgage interest on my house for years. It was like $10K a year. That was a nice deduction, until I finally paid off the mortgage, and the extra $12K standard deduction proposed in the tax reform will do me more good than a mortgage deduction, now that I don't have a mortgage anymore.
Another strange bit of tax reform information. Somebody, Congressional Budget Office perhaps, claims that killing the "individual mandate" (tax/fine on individuals who don't have health insurance) will SAVE $380 billion over ten years. How does killing a tax/fine save money?? Taxes raise money, killing them looses money. Perhaps "they" think huge numbers of people won't buy taxpayer subsidized health insurance without the tax/fine to encourage them, and thus the taxpayers won't have to pay to subsidize them? And "they" get their numbers from where? And we believe them. Right.
I paid mortgage interest on my house for years. It was like $10K a year. That was a nice deduction, until I finally paid off the mortgage, and the extra $12K standard deduction proposed in the tax reform will do me more good than a mortgage deduction, now that I don't have a mortgage anymore.
Another strange bit of tax reform information. Somebody, Congressional Budget Office perhaps, claims that killing the "individual mandate" (tax/fine on individuals who don't have health insurance) will SAVE $380 billion over ten years. How does killing a tax/fine save money?? Taxes raise money, killing them looses money. Perhaps "they" think huge numbers of people won't buy taxpayer subsidized health insurance without the tax/fine to encourage them, and thus the taxpayers won't have to pay to subsidize them? And "they" get their numbers from where? And we believe them. Right.
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
King Arthur: The Legend of the Sword 2017
I love the King Arthur legend. I've read several books, seen all the movies. So when this one turned up on Netflix, I went for it.
Disappointing is the best I can say for it. Most of the cast, including Arthur, were unknown to me. The only two actors I had every heard of, Jude Law and Eric Bana, had mere spear carrier parts. Other than the sword in the stone, the movie lacks any connection with the well known Arthur legend. No Launcelot, no Gawaine, no Guinevere, no jousting, no Grail, no Round Table, nothing. The story picks up with a young (looks to be in his 20's) Arthur pulling the sword out of the stone. And after that nothing much happens. Arthur does a lot of bitching, and a good deal of whacking and hacking with the sword (Excalibur). It's never clear just what the enemy has done to justify killing them, but that doesn't interfere with another mediocre sword fight. If Arthur has a cause, we never hear of it. He has no love interest. He never shows up leading his troops. The Arthur legend is about a great Christian hero-king saving his people from pagan Saxon invaders. I expected an Arthur movie to show me some heroism. I was disappointed.
Nobody is ever addressed by name, leaving us confused as to who is who. There is a cute young chick, who works magic with funny facial expressions, who ought to Morgan Le Fay, but all she is ever called is "The Mage". There is a Merlin character, played by a black man, but he is never, at least not in my hearing, addressed as Merlin. And other than showing up, he never does anything interesting.
Camera work was mediocre. Too many scenes were poorly lit, and they used the color washout technique entirely too much. Sound work was only fair, but somewhat better than Game of Thrones. I could hear and understand most of the lines.
According to IMDB they spent $175 million making this thing. It's been out since May, and it's only earned $40 million.
Disappointing is the best I can say for it. Most of the cast, including Arthur, were unknown to me. The only two actors I had every heard of, Jude Law and Eric Bana, had mere spear carrier parts. Other than the sword in the stone, the movie lacks any connection with the well known Arthur legend. No Launcelot, no Gawaine, no Guinevere, no jousting, no Grail, no Round Table, nothing. The story picks up with a young (looks to be in his 20's) Arthur pulling the sword out of the stone. And after that nothing much happens. Arthur does a lot of bitching, and a good deal of whacking and hacking with the sword (Excalibur). It's never clear just what the enemy has done to justify killing them, but that doesn't interfere with another mediocre sword fight. If Arthur has a cause, we never hear of it. He has no love interest. He never shows up leading his troops. The Arthur legend is about a great Christian hero-king saving his people from pagan Saxon invaders. I expected an Arthur movie to show me some heroism. I was disappointed.
Nobody is ever addressed by name, leaving us confused as to who is who. There is a cute young chick, who works magic with funny facial expressions, who ought to Morgan Le Fay, but all she is ever called is "The Mage". There is a Merlin character, played by a black man, but he is never, at least not in my hearing, addressed as Merlin. And other than showing up, he never does anything interesting.
Camera work was mediocre. Too many scenes were poorly lit, and they used the color washout technique entirely too much. Sound work was only fair, but somewhat better than Game of Thrones. I could hear and understand most of the lines.
According to IMDB they spent $175 million making this thing. It's been out since May, and it's only earned $40 million.
Sunday, November 12, 2017
We ought to repeal the death tax
The death tax is killing small business. Gas stations, bodegas, family farms, main street stores, barber shops, restaurants, repair shops, etc, are started by individuals, employ people, and are reasonably profitable. Eventually the owner dies. His estate is basically the business, there may be a few thousand dollars in the checking account, but essentially the guy's estate is the business. And upon the owner's death the government now wants that business to cough up 50% of it's assessed value for estate taxes. That's a lot of money, which most small businesses simply don't have. Net result, the small business goes out of business, its workers are laid off, a main street store front gets boarded up and customers have to go elsewhere. Not good. We would be better off if the owner could will the going business to his heirs (or anyone for that matter) estate tax free. This way the business stays in business, the workers stay employed, the main street storefront stays open for business, and customers keep getting served. And the going business will pay taxes. Better to collect a reasonable amount of tax every year, than a whopping big estate tax that drives the small business out of business.
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Sunset From my Deck
First Snow of 2017-2018. A half an inch. 
Mount Lafayette in Franconia Notch
Making snow on Cannon Mt. They have a ways to go before opening for skiing.
More Cannon snow making.Friday, November 10, 2017
What about this Roy Moore flap?
Far as I know, it's a one source story from the Washington Post. The Post claims that Moore molested some teen age girls 35 years ago. Moore, in case you don't remember, won the Alabama primary for US Senator. There will be a special election in December to fill the Senate seat left empty when the incumbent accepted Trump's appointment as US attorney general. He is also the judge who was kicked off the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments statue from his courthouse. That gave him pretty good name recognition down in his district.
A number of US senators, including John McCain, have called for Moore to resign (if he wins) and if there is any truth in the WaPo's accusation. The Constitution allows the Senate (and the House for that matter) to expel a member, and "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections,Returns and Qualifications of its own members," (Article I section 5). That ought to mean that the Senate can declare an election rigged, ballot boxes stuffed, or the electee is a scumbag, and refuse to seat that member.
Question: Is the Washington Post telling the truth? How can a story from 35 years ago be checked? We used to have a statute of limitations, but the lawyers have pretty much repealed it by now.
A number of US senators, including John McCain, have called for Moore to resign (if he wins) and if there is any truth in the WaPo's accusation. The Constitution allows the Senate (and the House for that matter) to expel a member, and "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections,Returns and Qualifications of its own members," (Article I section 5). That ought to mean that the Senate can declare an election rigged, ballot boxes stuffed, or the electee is a scumbag, and refuse to seat that member.
Question: Is the Washington Post telling the truth? How can a story from 35 years ago be checked? We used to have a statute of limitations, but the lawyers have pretty much repealed it by now.
Winter is coming.
I got a half and inch of snow up here in the White Mountains. Enough to make the ground white. And it's cold, 20F.
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Is it a middle class tax cut? Or a taxcut for "The Rich"???
Who knows? The Democrats claim it's a tax cut for "The Rich". Republicans say it's a tax cut for the middle class. Who to believe? The bill is still secret, and is probably 1000 pages long and written in deep gobble-de-gook, so even if I found it on the Web, it wouldn't mean anything to me. I only read English. I cannot focus on 1000 pages. The Journal favors the bill, but it prints a chart showing that a few classes of taxpayer will be paying more ten years from now.
The Journal says that a lot of its provisions have time limits of less than ten years. That hurts economic growth. Lots of projects, even just buying a home, let alone building a new factory, take more than ten years to pay off. And the payoff always depends upon the tax burden laid on the project. If we don't know what the tax burden will be ten years out, we are less likely to do the project.
Living in NH, which fortunately lacks a state income tax and state sales taxes, I'm all in favor of ending the deduction for state and local taxes. My mortgage is paid off, so the mortgage interest deduction does me no good. My children are grown up, married, living in their own homes, so child deductions don't do me any good.
The Republicans have to pass something or they get voted out of office next year. They already failed to repeal Obamacare, failure to pass tax reform will confirm voter belief that the Republicans are a bunch of blow hard RINO's, no different from Democrats. And they deserve payback at the polls for failing to live up to their promises to reform taxes and repeal Obamacare.
The Journal says that a lot of its provisions have time limits of less than ten years. That hurts economic growth. Lots of projects, even just buying a home, let alone building a new factory, take more than ten years to pay off. And the payoff always depends upon the tax burden laid on the project. If we don't know what the tax burden will be ten years out, we are less likely to do the project.
Living in NH, which fortunately lacks a state income tax and state sales taxes, I'm all in favor of ending the deduction for state and local taxes. My mortgage is paid off, so the mortgage interest deduction does me no good. My children are grown up, married, living in their own homes, so child deductions don't do me any good.
The Republicans have to pass something or they get voted out of office next year. They already failed to repeal Obamacare, failure to pass tax reform will confirm voter belief that the Republicans are a bunch of blow hard RINO's, no different from Democrats. And they deserve payback at the polls for failing to live up to their promises to reform taxes and repeal Obamacare.
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
Nobody uses hammers anymore
At least not on "This Old House". I watch an episode of the antenna day before yesterday. Which was nice, the cable doesn't carry "This Old House". What caught my eye was nobody was using hammers and nails anymore. Not even air powered nail guns. Everything gets fastened with drywall screws, driven in with battery drills. No pilot hole drilling, just drive right into the wood. As fast as hammering in a nail, not quite as fast as a nail gun.
Daylight Savings Time, the biannual hassle
So I have to reset all my clocks today. Antique Tiffany mantle clock, bedside clock radio,wristwatch, car clock, celery phone, VCR, and two Windows computers. I have been told you should never push the hands of antique clocks backward, it will confuse the striking mechanism and other badnesses. So I open the back, stop the pendulum, wait an hour, and then restart the pendulum. The bedside clock radio has a straight forward "Set Clock" button, no problem. Celery phone, bless its little silicon heart, handles the time change automatically, so does Windows. The car clock is so confusing that I have to dig out the car instruction booklet and re read how to set clock. The human factors department at Buick was out to lunch when they designed that car clock.
Hand Tools. Round Handles
There oughta be a law against round handles. When you set the round handled tool down on your bench, it promply rolls off the bench and bangs on the floor. Unless your bench is dead level. Few people level their work benches. Tool companies out to put hexagonal or square or triangular handles on tools, any shape that won't roll of the bench.
Xacto, the hobby knife company is a prominent offender.
Xacto, the hobby knife company is a prominent offender.
Over The Air TV
Gotta have something on the TV. While my TV cable was still broken, I hooked up my roof antenna to the big Sony flatscreen TV. That antenna is pretty beat up, a lot of fingers have broken off over the years. . They were still broadcasting analog TV when I put that antenna up on the roof, and that was a long time ago. Beat up as it is, it still gets enough signal to run my FM radio. And it gets enough signal to provide 17 digital and 2 analog channels for the Sony TV to tune in. Hurrah. Both of the analog channels are WMUR, the NH TV station (ABC) which at least has some local news and weather. The digital channels are all high def which gives lovely video, at least if you like watching Thomas the Tank Engine, Sesame St, the View, Jeopardy, and some other loser programming. No Fox News, no Sci-Fi channel, no CNN. Arggh. I want my cable TV back.
Celery Phones
What with my land line broken in two, I used my celery phone to call the power company. That didn't work. I dialed, got thru to the faraway call center, and listened to their auto answer machine. It got around to saying " Press ONE to report a power outage." Tough luck, my celery phone (Lucky Goldstar 305C) won't do that. Soon as it connects, the number keypad goes away. Without that keypad, there is no way to press ONE, or any other number for that matter. PITA. I had to drive down to Mac's Market in the ville to call in my power outage. I even dug up the celery phone instruction booklet off my laptop and read it thru. When all else fails read the instructions. No luck. Not a word about dial ONE or dialing an extension, or dialing anything at all after the celery phone places a call.
Back on Line!! Hurrah!
Back on the air, at last! Took long enough. We had a really serious windstorm go thru here Sunday night, October 28. At 2 AM a crash and a flash woke me up. Lights were out on the bedside clock radio. Since it was pitch dark, blowing hard and raining hard, I decided to stay in bed and go back to sleep. Whatever it was could wait for daylight.
Well, daylight came, and showed the wind had blown down two power poles, the ones that feed juiice to all of Mittersill. The pole right behind my house went over and pulled my service entrance clean off the back of the house, and snapped my telephone line clean in half, and broke my cable TV coax. The wired society had struck out.
It took the power company ( used be PSNH, now they call themselves Eversource) until Tuesday (THREE DAYS!!) to get a crew up here with new poles, and cherry pickers to fix the downed poles. The pole right behind the house had not gone all the way down; it just pulled sideways and was leaning at about 60 degrees. They just pulled that one back up straight. The other pole had snapped clean off about 5 feet off the ground. That one got replaced. They restrung the electric wires and bingo everybody else's lights came back on. Not me, I hadn't gotten my service entrance repaired yet. Power company won't do that, I have to.
Next day, Wednesday, I got Jim Price, very nice, very competent, licensed electrician from the next town over (Bethlehem) out to repair my service entrance. He got that done just before dark, and then by the grace of God, the Eversource people came out Thursday morning and hooked me back up the the grid. Hallelujah, lights came on, furnace started up, fridge started cooling, hot water heater started heating.
And, wonder of wonders, the phone company came by later on Friday and spliced my telephone wire.
Last player, the cable company, Time Warner, who is changing their name to Spectrum, didn't get here until just now. They ran new coax to the house and spliced it into the main cable on the troublesome pole, and wonderbar, TV and Internet came back.
Well, daylight came, and showed the wind had blown down two power poles, the ones that feed juiice to all of Mittersill. The pole right behind my house went over and pulled my service entrance clean off the back of the house, and snapped my telephone line clean in half, and broke my cable TV coax. The wired society had struck out.
It took the power company ( used be PSNH, now they call themselves Eversource) until Tuesday (THREE DAYS!!) to get a crew up here with new poles, and cherry pickers to fix the downed poles. The pole right behind the house had not gone all the way down; it just pulled sideways and was leaning at about 60 degrees. They just pulled that one back up straight. The other pole had snapped clean off about 5 feet off the ground. That one got replaced. They restrung the electric wires and bingo everybody else's lights came back on. Not me, I hadn't gotten my service entrance repaired yet. Power company won't do that, I have to.
Next day, Wednesday, I got Jim Price, very nice, very competent, licensed electrician from the next town over (Bethlehem) out to repair my service entrance. He got that done just before dark, and then by the grace of God, the Eversource people came out Thursday morning and hooked me back up the the grid. Hallelujah, lights came on, furnace started up, fridge started cooling, hot water heater started heating.
And, wonder of wonders, the phone company came by later on Friday and spliced my telephone wire.
Last player, the cable company, Time Warner, who is changing their name to Spectrum, didn't get here until just now. They ran new coax to the house and spliced it into the main cable on the troublesome pole, and wonderbar, TV and Internet came back.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
General Electric wants out of the locomotive business
Wow. The diesel locomotive business really got started right after WWII. All the railroads wanted to replace their steam engines. This was a huge piece of business. Between 1945 and 1957 every steam engine in the land was scrapped and replaced with brand new diesels. The Electro motive division of General Motors got the bulk of this work. Old line steam engine makers Baldwin and Alco offered product, and Fairbanks Morse and GE offered product but EMD got all the business. 90% or better of all railroad locomotives were EMD built by 1960. All the competitors dropped out except GE, who still offered fairly decent product, but wasn't selling much against EMD.
Somehow, in the 1980's GE pulled ahead of entrenched EMD and today is the best seller, with EMD just clinging to life. GE did some $4.7 billion worth of diesel locomotive business last year. A handsome chunk of change, even compared to GE's other businesses (jet engines, heavy electrical equipment) which brought in close to $100 billion.
For some reason the new guy at GE, the one who sold off the GE corporate jet fleet, wants to get rid of the locomotive business. No reason given. That's some 10000 employees. The Wall St Journal had a picture of the locomotive production line, giant room, half a dozen big locomotives under construction.
Some business writer ought to do a book on how GE managed to take to diesel market away from EMD back in the 1980's. There ought to be some good stuff in there. Was it GE's AC powered locomotives that had greater tractive effort (pulled harder) and cost more? Was it sloppiness over at EMD? something else?
I wonder why GE now wants out of the locomotive business.
Somehow, in the 1980's GE pulled ahead of entrenched EMD and today is the best seller, with EMD just clinging to life. GE did some $4.7 billion worth of diesel locomotive business last year. A handsome chunk of change, even compared to GE's other businesses (jet engines, heavy electrical equipment) which brought in close to $100 billion.
For some reason the new guy at GE, the one who sold off the GE corporate jet fleet, wants to get rid of the locomotive business. No reason given. That's some 10000 employees. The Wall St Journal had a picture of the locomotive production line, giant room, half a dozen big locomotives under construction.
Some business writer ought to do a book on how GE managed to take to diesel market away from EMD back in the 1980's. There ought to be some good stuff in there. Was it GE's AC powered locomotives that had greater tractive effort (pulled harder) and cost more? Was it sloppiness over at EMD? something else?
I wonder why GE now wants out of the locomotive business.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Tempest in Teapot
"Don't Trust the Chinese to make Microchips for the Military" Headline to a Wall St Journal op-ed yesterday. The writer, Dan Nidest, clearly lacks experience in the design of military electronics. Whereas it used to be my day job.
US procurement regulations require that all the semiconductors in a military gadget be "Mil-Spec" semiconductors. Which cost ten times as much as commercial devices, and are of marginal quality. The Mil Spec thing got started back in vacuum tube days. The military knew that tubes with extra thick filaments would last longer than standard commercial tubes. And they bought such tubes, for a premium price. Trouble is, there is no way to inspect the insides of a glass vacuum tube without ruining it. And so unscrupulous vendors put mil spec markings on ordinary commercial tubes and sold them to the military. And so, the military demanded that mil spec tubes only be manufactured on special production lines, under inspection by government agents.
This quaint custom carried over to semiconductors when they came into service in the 1960's.
So, false alarm. All semiconducters used in military electronics are made in the US of A. Not to worry.
US procurement regulations require that all the semiconductors in a military gadget be "Mil-Spec" semiconductors. Which cost ten times as much as commercial devices, and are of marginal quality. The Mil Spec thing got started back in vacuum tube days. The military knew that tubes with extra thick filaments would last longer than standard commercial tubes. And they bought such tubes, for a premium price. Trouble is, there is no way to inspect the insides of a glass vacuum tube without ruining it. And so unscrupulous vendors put mil spec markings on ordinary commercial tubes and sold them to the military. And so, the military demanded that mil spec tubes only be manufactured on special production lines, under inspection by government agents.
This quaint custom carried over to semiconductors when they came into service in the 1960's.
So, false alarm. All semiconducters used in military electronics are made in the US of A. Not to worry.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Dawn over Marblehead (Wall St) Finally.
Price of Puerto Rican bonds is finally dropping into the toilet. About time. Early in 2015 a Puerto Rican bond was selling on the street for 95 cents on the dollar. This price drifted down gradually thru out 2015, 2016, and most of 2017. It had reached 65 cents on the dollar by this summer. Only this fall did the price dive down to 30 cents on the dollar.
In actual fact, Puerto Rico doesn't have the money to pay off a nickel of the $93 billion that Wall St bankers were stupid enough to loan them over the years. It's been obvious for twenty years that Puerto Rico didn't have, and could not get, the money to pay off any of its loans. And yet, those clever Wall St banks kept loaning Puerto Rico more money. And trading Puerto Rican securities and bonds back and forth among themselves as if these securities were actually worth something. They aren't.
The amazing thing. The Wall St bankers only figured things out in the last few weeks. You gotta wonder where these people went to school.
In actual fact, Puerto Rico doesn't have the money to pay off a nickel of the $93 billion that Wall St bankers were stupid enough to loan them over the years. It's been obvious for twenty years that Puerto Rico didn't have, and could not get, the money to pay off any of its loans. And yet, those clever Wall St banks kept loaning Puerto Rico more money. And trading Puerto Rican securities and bonds back and forth among themselves as if these securities were actually worth something. They aren't.
The amazing thing. The Wall St bankers only figured things out in the last few weeks. You gotta wonder where these people went to school.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
OK, so Corker and Flake are bailing out
Two US republican senators announce they will not run for re election in 2018. They are no friends of Donald Trump, but up until now have been more loyal and useful Republicans than John McCain, Susan Collins, or Rand Paul.
They both come from reasonably Republican districts, which may elect Republican replacements. On the other hand, incumbents usually have better odds of winning the election than challengers.
Granted, Trump and his friends will have a more tractable Congress if Corker and Flake are replaced by Republicans. If they are replaced by democrats, life will be harder for the administration. The Republican control of the Senate rests on a mere two seats.
Note to Steve Bannion. You would do the party more good by attacking democrats, rather than Republicans.
They both come from reasonably Republican districts, which may elect Republican replacements. On the other hand, incumbents usually have better odds of winning the election than challengers.
Granted, Trump and his friends will have a more tractable Congress if Corker and Flake are replaced by Republicans. If they are replaced by democrats, life will be harder for the administration. The Republican control of the Senate rests on a mere two seats.
Note to Steve Bannion. You would do the party more good by attacking democrats, rather than Republicans.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Opioid Crisis Some more bad stuff
Article in a local paper said that opioid prescriptions were down, from about 90% of patients in 2014 to maybe 70% in 2016. The article didn't bother to explain the percent numbers (typical of newsies who are totally innumerate). I'm guessing that it is the number of opioid prescriptions written over the total number of patients. Any one please feel free to correct me on this.
If this is progress we are doomed.
I take my self to the doctor today. I used to bring all three children to the doctor along with my wife. For 50 years, 200-300 doctor appointments at least. Never did I or any of my family receive a prescription for opioids. That's an opioid prescription rate of 0 for me and my family.
To hear that an opioid prescription rate of 70% is an improvement is ridiculous.
I can believe that there are some people with real pain problems for whom opioids are indicated. I cannot believe that 70% of people have real pain problems.
I am aware that most of the overdose deaths are caused by heroin and fentanyl , both of which are illegal. I'd like to know how many of these overdose cases got started with prescription opioids. I have never seen any numbers on this. But if 70% of patients are started on opioids, you gotta believe that a lot of 'em move over to cheaper (but more dangerous) street drugs.
If this is progress we are doomed.
I take my self to the doctor today. I used to bring all three children to the doctor along with my wife. For 50 years, 200-300 doctor appointments at least. Never did I or any of my family receive a prescription for opioids. That's an opioid prescription rate of 0 for me and my family.
To hear that an opioid prescription rate of 70% is an improvement is ridiculous.
I can believe that there are some people with real pain problems for whom opioids are indicated. I cannot believe that 70% of people have real pain problems.
I am aware that most of the overdose deaths are caused by heroin and fentanyl , both of which are illegal. I'd like to know how many of these overdose cases got started with prescription opioids. I have never seen any numbers on this. But if 70% of patients are started on opioids, you gotta believe that a lot of 'em move over to cheaper (but more dangerous) street drugs.
Monday, October 23, 2017
Whither the EU?
Just as it looked like the EU was coming together, the Brits pull out. Britain is the number 2 EU country, just behind Germany and ahead of France in terms of GNP, population, diplomatic effectiveness, American connections, lotta things. To have your Number 2 member pull out has gotta be disheartening for the advocates of European unity.
And we may have further breakups in the works. Catalonia, an important Spanish province, has voted in a referendum to succeed from Spain. There has been some pushback by the government of Spain, and some stories about how turnout for the referendum was very light, say 20%. If that's true, it says that only the hard core Catalans came out to vote. And, if the Catalans succeed, the Basque region will be right behind. And the Scots and the Welsh are making noises about pulling out of the United Kingdom (Britain). That's four small provinces making succession noises. Although I don't remember hearing anyone from these proto-mini-nations talk about joining the EU, it's a good bet that some, maybe all of 'em will apply for EU membership after they make their succession good.
The EU got started right after WWII. The European survivors of that disaster wanted to prevent WWIII by welding Europe together into a single country. The Americans were all in favor for that reason and to present a united front against Russian Communism. It started small with a trade deal called the European Coal and Steel Community. I don't remember, perhaps never knew, just what kind of a deal this was, but it worked. Sometime in the 1960's the Common Market was declared. Initially the Common Market had a mere six members, and Britain was not one of them. In fact the Brits put together a trade block of their own, which lasted for some years. Eventually the Brits, and their trade block joined the EU. Then the Soviets collapsed and all the Warsaw pact satellites rushed to sign up with the EU as a defense against Soviet revanchism. Then the big step, the Europeans launched a successful European currency, the Euro and that worked.
But, the EU never was able to pull together like the American United States did. The EU members never surrendered control of their armed forces, or their diplomatic corps to the central EU government. The American founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution talk about base principles ( all men are created equal) and distribution of political power (executive, legislative, judicial). The EU founding treaties are silent on most of the issues Americans find fundamental, and have a lot of happy talk about all the bennies EU citizens are entitled to, free healthcare, universal education, and the like, but don't divvy up the political power the way the Americans did. The American states yielded up serious and important powers (rights to have their own armed forces, right to operate their own foreign policy, and a lot of other heavy duty stuff to the new federal government. The European states didn't yield up an ounce of their sovereignty to Brussels.
Where to next? Will the rest of the EU hang together? Or will more members follow the British lead and bail out? Will the US offer Britain membership in NAFTA? What about other EU refugee countries? Stay tuned for future developments.
And we may have further breakups in the works. Catalonia, an important Spanish province, has voted in a referendum to succeed from Spain. There has been some pushback by the government of Spain, and some stories about how turnout for the referendum was very light, say 20%. If that's true, it says that only the hard core Catalans came out to vote. And, if the Catalans succeed, the Basque region will be right behind. And the Scots and the Welsh are making noises about pulling out of the United Kingdom (Britain). That's four small provinces making succession noises. Although I don't remember hearing anyone from these proto-mini-nations talk about joining the EU, it's a good bet that some, maybe all of 'em will apply for EU membership after they make their succession good.
The EU got started right after WWII. The European survivors of that disaster wanted to prevent WWIII by welding Europe together into a single country. The Americans were all in favor for that reason and to present a united front against Russian Communism. It started small with a trade deal called the European Coal and Steel Community. I don't remember, perhaps never knew, just what kind of a deal this was, but it worked. Sometime in the 1960's the Common Market was declared. Initially the Common Market had a mere six members, and Britain was not one of them. In fact the Brits put together a trade block of their own, which lasted for some years. Eventually the Brits, and their trade block joined the EU. Then the Soviets collapsed and all the Warsaw pact satellites rushed to sign up with the EU as a defense against Soviet revanchism. Then the big step, the Europeans launched a successful European currency, the Euro and that worked.
But, the EU never was able to pull together like the American United States did. The EU members never surrendered control of their armed forces, or their diplomatic corps to the central EU government. The American founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution talk about base principles ( all men are created equal) and distribution of political power (executive, legislative, judicial). The EU founding treaties are silent on most of the issues Americans find fundamental, and have a lot of happy talk about all the bennies EU citizens are entitled to, free healthcare, universal education, and the like, but don't divvy up the political power the way the Americans did. The American states yielded up serious and important powers (rights to have their own armed forces, right to operate their own foreign policy, and a lot of other heavy duty stuff to the new federal government. The European states didn't yield up an ounce of their sovereignty to Brussels.
Where to next? Will the rest of the EU hang together? Or will more members follow the British lead and bail out? Will the US offer Britain membership in NAFTA? What about other EU refugee countries? Stay tuned for future developments.
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Driving down to a Boston Train Show
It was a lovely day, dry, warm, sunny. Leaves are a bit past peak in Franconia Notch, but are at peak down south. I93 was in good shape except the widening project south of Manchester hasn't gotten anywhere since I was thru there last. More NH infrastructure money spent with out improving the road at all.
The North Shore Model Railroad Club of Wakefield MA, of which I used to be a member until I retired to NH, put on the show. They had the swap meet at the Wakefield Americal Hall, across the street from the club layout. The vendors had a lot of rolling stock and some structures, no tools or parts. A fair number of steam engines that could serve as project locomotives, except I have two such project locomotive in my shop awaiting work. The crowd was mostly older guys, a few very small children who were entranced, no kids old enough to be into electric trains on their own. The hobby is not recruiting new hobbyists to replace the older guys who are dying off. The North Shore club had three member who I had known die just this fall.
The club layout is down stairs from Brother's restaurant on Main St. The layout is 90 feet long. The newest and last section toward the back is largely done. Benchwork is in, track is laid, trains run. Scenery is coming along nicely. The old core of the club was still there, still guiding the work. This layout was large enough to make a cover story of Model Railroader back in 1985, and it's bigger now.
Anyhow a nice day.
The North Shore Model Railroad Club of Wakefield MA, of which I used to be a member until I retired to NH, put on the show. They had the swap meet at the Wakefield Americal Hall, across the street from the club layout. The vendors had a lot of rolling stock and some structures, no tools or parts. A fair number of steam engines that could serve as project locomotives, except I have two such project locomotive in my shop awaiting work. The crowd was mostly older guys, a few very small children who were entranced, no kids old enough to be into electric trains on their own. The hobby is not recruiting new hobbyists to replace the older guys who are dying off. The North Shore club had three member who I had known die just this fall.
The club layout is down stairs from Brother's restaurant on Main St. The layout is 90 feet long. The newest and last section toward the back is largely done. Benchwork is in, track is laid, trains run. Scenery is coming along nicely. The old core of the club was still there, still guiding the work. This layout was large enough to make a cover story of Model Railroader back in 1985, and it's bigger now.
Anyhow a nice day.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)