The only polls worth watching

Are the polls for New Hampshire and Iowa.  Because, after New Hampshire and Iowa everything will change.  Losers will be gone, and the loser's voters will go somewhere else, where, no body can tell.  And the winners, and even the runners up will be immensely strengthened, which again changes everything.  The nation wide polls right now, before New Hampshire and Iowa don't mean anything, because the results of New Hampshire and Iowa will change everything.
  The newsies don't seem to understand this, they keep reporting the nationwide poll numbers.