Did some chatting about the primary at coffee hour, which follows church services. Iowa has moved Obama from "interesting new guy" to "possible Democratic nominee". He is likable, a good orator, and now he looks like he could win. If he takes NH, and he could, he looks like he could go all the way. The voters moods are shifting rapidly up here and I don't think any poll is current enough to be trustworthy. The feel up here is that Obama could follow up Iowa with a solid win in NH. I'm watching TV pundits saying the same thing.
On the Republican side, John McCain is looking stronger and stronger. Should the charismatic Obama be the democratic nominee, the charismatic McCain would be the Republicans best bet. I don't think Huckabee is going to do much, unless he taps into a large previously in active bunch of voters. Which is what he did in Iowa. I don't think this will work for him in NH, but after Iowa, I am reluctant to write Huck off. I personally hope McCain beats Huckabee solidly, I think that's highly likely, but Huckabee surprised us all in Iowa.
If Obama and McCain become the nominees, and that's looking likely, then Iowa and NH voters will have made the nominee selection for the rest of the country. I say that's the way it oughta be, any right thinking NH blogger can see that plainly. Primary voters in the Super Tuesday states may not agree, and any state voting after Super Tuesday is wasting it's time.
The presidential season is just too damn long. We are selecting the nominees nearly a year before the election. I think we ought to push all the primaries back a good three months. Pick the nominee no earlier than April, so the primary votes represent voter opinion closer to election time. Nominees that look good in January may not serve the party well in November.
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