Long illustrated article discusses the Iranian situation in depth. The writers conclude that the Iranian nuclear facilities are too deeply buried to be damaged by bombing. Even by USAF, let alone the Israeli Air Force. Unless nukes were used. USAF won't use nukes and we are pretty sure the Israelis won't either. The article did say that the Stuxnet computer virus slowed the Iranians down by five years, but that won't work again the article says. The Iranians are constructing a secure network and taking their computers off the public Internet.
Of course, Stuxnet wasn't spread via the Internet. Stuxnet was put on flash drives, and they scattered a few infected flash drives around the parking lots outside Iranian nuclear facilities. Sharp eyed workers would spot the flashdrives lying on the asphalt, pick them up and take them in to their cubicles. When they plugged them into their computers, Stuxnet would load itself into RAM and go to work. No Internet access required for infection.
2 comments:
Sanctions are getting to the Iranian middle class. I'm thoroughly amused that businesses in Iran are only accepting the Great Satan American Dollars. Making them feel the squeeze is more effective than a bombing at this point.
Also they're not close to the level of enrichment for a bomb yet (20% and they need 80%) The Thin Boy used 112 lbs of U-234. They have about 30 lbs of U-234 in their stockpile of 250 lbs of enriched uranium, but it would take them some time to get it separated.
It's also comically easy to accidentally set off a gun-type nuke.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19786662
I did read something in the Journal the other day about hyper inflation setting in so bad that the Iranian merchant class, stanch supporters of the regime since Khomeni's time, are getting restless. Destabilizing the Iranian regime dies seem more feasible than an air strike, which may not work, and will certainly piss of the average Iranian-in-the-street.
I don't know what makes critical mass for a U-235 gun type bomb. I thought it was closer a a kilogram or two rather than 112 pounds.
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