It's all around the Internet, a new story about a sun spot catastrophy will bring back the ice ages by 2030. Or maybe more global warming. The story claims that two cyclical patterns with in the Sun have been discovered. They didn't say how this amazing detection was performed. The two patterns will coincide in 2030 causing a Maunder Minimum, a lack of sun spots.
Trouble is, sunspots do not effect earth weather. Sun spots have been known since the 1600's, and counted. They come and go on an 11 year cycle which has been observed for hundreds of years. Sun spots effect earthly radio propagation in the HF band and so are closely observed by the radio community. At sun sport maximum propagation is good and modest radio equipment can work clean around the world. At sun spot minimum even the powerful equipment has trouble working to the horizon. But, no one has ever found an 11 year cycle in earth weather.
Sunspots don't change the sun's output much. Solar output (the solar constant) is hard to observe from the ground because of clouds and weather. To get a good reading, satellites were launched 40 years ago, and their decendants are still in orbit today. The satellites report the Sun furnishes 1300 and some change Watts per square meter at the top of the atmosphere. 1300 Watts is about the power of a two slice toaster. Graphs of the solar constant going back to the first satellite are on the internet. The instruments are quite sensitive, you can actually see the 11 year sun spot cycle in the graphs, but it is very weak, a few Watts out of 1300 and some.
Given that the 0.1% variation in the solar constant is too small to matter, AND no one has found an 11 year cycle in anything other than radio propagation, I say this "ice age in 2030" internet story is pure scare mongering, and bull manure to boot.
No comments:
Post a Comment