Saturday, August 17, 2019

Recesson Talk

Been a lot of talk on TV, even on Fox.  The newsies talk about rates of return on US T-bills.  Uncle sells a variety of T-bills, short term, long term, forever term.  The rate of return on the longer T-bills fell below the rate of return on shorter T-bills.  The newsies are claiming this is a sure fire recession indicator. 
   Dunno about that.  We have bond markets, open 5 days a week, every week.  You don't have to hold a bond until maturity, you can sell a long bond anytime.  Your broker can have the cash in your account within one business day.  That's faster than a check can clear.  People (people with money) buy T-bills when they don't have anything better to do with some excess money.  T-Bills pay a little interest, not much but better than nothing, and they are as safe as cash.  The US has always paid it's debts, ever since the revolution, the US economy is the largest in the world, it is protected by the strongest military in the world, and the US has anything thing you might want for sale, just as long as you have the money to pay for it.  
   If the investor doesn't have anything better to invest in, like new plant and equipment, new product development, dividends, hot stocks, whatever, he will park the unused cash in T-bills, until he needs it for something more lucrative.  I don't think investors really care if it is a 5 year T-bill or a 30 year T-bill.  They will sell their T-bill when they need the money for something else. 
  I don't see any connection between long and short T-bill returns and recessions.  The TV newsies do, and they are talking it up, but what do they know? Really?

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