Why I don’t trust computer models.

A computer model is nothing more than a computer program that computes how something will change over time, Global warming, Corona virus, you name it, is going to work out.  I have written and tested plenty of computer models over a long career in R&D and programming.  When you start programming a computer model, you already have a clear idea of what you want the model to say.  If the model doesn’t say what you want it to say, you start fixing the code.  Work hard enough and the model will say what you want it to say if especially if you are willing to cheat.  One greenie climate change program had a line of code that read “If date younger than 1945 add a few degrees.  If date younger than 1955 add a few more.”  This bit of code came from the Hadley Climate Research Unit (CRU) and created Mann’s “hockey stick” plot of world temperature. 

   Any how a model (or two or other models) predicted massive infection rates of Corona virus world wide.  It is beginning to look like that model’s frightening predictions of infection, need for hospital beds, ventilators, and what ever, are not true, and the Corona virus epidemic is not as bad as the model predicted.  It is still pretty bad, but not as bad as the model predicted.