Lies, Damn Lies and statistics. Corona virus statistics

We hear a lot of ‘em on the TV.  For a scare tactic the newsies tell us that Corona virus cases are going up.  Not a good sign.  They finish off by calling to quarantine every body and shut everything down.  Then a few newsies tell us that Corona virus deaths are going down.  They finish off by calling for re opening stores and restaurants, getting back to work and ending stay at   home orders.  “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics” to quote Mark Twain.  

   The increase in the number of cases is probably because we are testing more.  And the test is pretty trigger happy.  A lot of people don’t have the disease, feel fine, and the test calls them sick.  The medics call these cases (and there are a lot of them) “asymptomatic” a nice buzz word that means “no symptoms”.  And they count them as Corona virus cases.  We could just as easily say the test has shown a false positive and not a Corona virus case.  And we don’t know if the asymptomatic cases are infectious or not.  Nor do we know if the asymptomatic cases will actually come down with a real case of Corona virus after a few weeks.  Anyhow, the number of Corona virus cases reported by the TV newies might be off by who knows how much.

   The number of deaths is perhaps a little more solid.  You need a death certificate and a body in order the say a death has occurred.  I have heard from a number of places that the medics are under great pressure to call every death a Corona virus death because the hospitals get a larger reimbursement for Corona virus deaths than for other causes of death. At any rate the number of deaths is going down.  It might be that Corona virus has already killed the most vulnerable among us and those of us that are left alive are more resistant to it.  In that case we could expect the death rate to fall some more. 

  Corona virus is going to be around for ever.  Unless we want to live hunkered down at home for the rest of our lives, we have to get out of the house, go to work, go out to eat, travel,  go to the beach, all that stuff.  Sooner or later we will encounter Corona virus.  Mostly we will survive.  I hear that once you have Corona virus you are immune to it from then on in.  I have not heard any real studies of this, but it is likely and it is the general belief right now.