Friday, April 12, 2013

What is the US trying to say about North Korea?

The TV news is carrying the story that the North Koreans may indeed have nuclear warheads for their missiles.  The story comes out of the US defense department. 
   Truth or falsity of this report is unknown.  I doubt that CIA has any agents in the north.  NSA has probably cracked North Korean codes,  so we know what the North Koreans have put out over the air.  But how much would a top secret project in a paranoid state like North Korea put out over the air?  Korean CIA ought to have some agents in the North.  The North Koreans could have their own Rosenburgs passing information to the South, but who knows?  South Korean intelligence is probably smart enough to keep such an agent secret if they actually have one. 
   But, when the US defense department puts out the story, we give the story credence that it wouldn't otherwise have.  Why do we do that?  Are we trying to make the North Koreans look even more dangerous?   Practical minded Americans wouldn't mind a pre emptive strike against a truly dangerous enemy.  Up until now, practical minded Americans have discounted the North Koreans, we beat them once, we could do it again, and they know it.  We don't  want to react to North Korean name calling.  We don't think they are dangerous enough to justify a pre emptive strike, at least not right now. 
    If we think they have nuclear tipped missiles, that actually work, that attitude might change. 
    The Obama administration surely doesn't want a military confrontation with anyone,  certainly not the North Korean's and their sizable army.  Why would they release such a provocative report?
    May be a leak?  We have Secretary of Sate on Fox TV denying that report at this very moment. 

3 comments:

Evan said...

It was Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colorado who spoke to the press after the House Armed Services Committee hearing. The briefing was classified but the conclusions weren't, which doesn't make much sense to me.

The entire thing doesn't make much sense, their best missile can launch *maybe* a 1,000kg payload. They're using uranium and I'd guess a gun-type design since implosion is a much harder route. If they could get the size down to a warhead size from a bomb size (Little Boy was 2,300kg for the warhead, 4,400kg for the entire bomb)then they could in theory make a fairly low yield atomic warhead that would fit on one of their missiles.

Lots of ifs. Their best bet to deliver a weapon might be to get it into an artillery shell, but I kinda get the feeling that North Koreans aren't too keen on blowing up other Koreans.

My personal choice would be to shoot down any missile that the North Koreans try to launch. I think it would hurt their prestige a bit with the people if we blew up every test launch. They can't win a conventional war and the regime isn't likely to do anything that would hurt their staying power.

Going to wind up being a huge mess either way unless China can and is willing to try to modernize some of North Koera's policies.

Dstarr said...

So far the Chinese have been feeding and fueling the North Koreans cause they make a useful buffer state. And cause the North Koreans can kick the Americans in the shins and it doesn't damage Chinese-US relations. And regime change in North Korea will be messy and cause a huge refugee flow.
The downside of a nuclear North Korea (a nuclear Japan and South Korea) doesn't seem to bother them, yet.
When or if the Chinese wise up, they can tell Kim Jong what's-his-face to shape up or go hungry.

Evan said...

No way Kim-jong Un is going on a diet!

What do you mean?!