Sunday, April 12, 2015

That Iranian nuclear deal

Funny thing, we don't seem to have anything in writing.  Just a "framework" what ever that may be. Last time the cookie pushers talked about "framework" was dealing with the Norks, who now have the bomb. The Americans say sanctions will stay on until the Iranians comply with the deal. The Iranians say sanctions stop right now.  The Americans say there will be inspections.  The Iranians say there won't be.  This kind of public bickering doesn't sound like much agreement has been reached. 
  Obama says the deal will block all Iranian paths to a bomb.  Great.  Do we get to remove all their centrifuges and enriched uranium from the country?  Do we likewise remove Iranian nuclear reactors?  Obama hasn't said. All he talks about is "paths to the bomb". 
   Assuming we get to inspect, what happens when we catch them cheating?  Do we bomb the cheating facility?  Arrest the cheaters and put them on trial in the US? or Geneva?  Do we "snapback" the sanctions?  Or do we merely send the Iranians a nasty diplomatic note? And who declares Iran to be cheating? Us, them, the IAEA, the inspection force?  Does it have to be unanimous or will majority vote suffice?
  Is sanction "snapback" even possible?  To really bite, sanctions have to be international, which means the Europeans, the Russians and the Chinese have to join in and refuse to sell to Iran.  Will they?  Iran has oil, which is saleable for dollars, which gives them money to buy stuff.  The Europeans, Russians, Chinese and everybody else would like to make a buck or two selling to Iran.  If only the Americans refuse to sell to Iran it won't hurt them much, Iran can buy from other places.  Money talks. 
  Will Obama cut a deal that just keeps the Iranians from getting the bomb before he leaves office?
  And the $64000 question.  What will we do when the Iranians test their first bomb?

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