Looking at polls, and just talking around, the economy and the chances of keeping your job, are the top concerns among US voters, going into this election. Incumbent politicians tend to say the economy is better or getting better. Insurgent politicians harp on how bad things are. Who's right?
Who knows? The two numbers the guvmint sends out are bogus. The unemployment rate the newsies report is actually the number of workers drawing unemployment benefits. When unemployment runs out, that worker is no longer unemployed. He may not, probably does not, have a job, but since he ain't drawing unemployment any more, he ain't unemployed. At the depths of Great Depression 2.0, back in 2008, unemployment got up to 9 or 10 percent. Since then it has dropped back to 5% nationwide, 2.7% in New Hampshire. Much of this "improvement" represents people's unemployment benefits running out.
Then we have "New Jobs Created". This number represents new hires in companies big enough to have to report such things to Washington. But the number doesn't take layoffs into account. A company could layoff 1000 senior employees and hire 1000 new high school grads at minimum wage in the same year, but it counts as 1000 jobs "grown".
With statistics this flaky, politicians can say the economy is getting better, or getting worse and have statistics to prove it either way.
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics" was Mark Twain's slam at this sort of thing.
Friday, April 1, 2016
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Why the Allies Won (WWII) by Richard Overy
Good read. Richard Overy is a Brit, who has previously written and published ten books on WWII subjects, so he knows something about it. He picks six campaigns that he calls the war winners, as opposed to plenty of campaigns which simply consumed lives and resources without ever doing anything to win the war. I find Overy's views quite reasonable.
Overy starts out explaining how touch and go Allied victory was. In 1939,1940,and 1941 the Axis swept all before it. Their armies fought better and beat the Allied armies every time. Hitler overran all of Western Europe save Britain. Had the Germans been able to get the mines and farms and factories of this humongous area organized and producing, and the young men to enlist in the German army, he would have had an empire to match his enemies.
Overy's first crucial campaign was in the North Atlantic, where the U-boats had to be defeated. D-Day would not have been possible if the U-boats sank half the troops before they reached England. He attributes this victory to a handful of Consolidated B24 Liberator four engine bombers that had the range to run air patrols clean across the Atlantic. Prior to the Liberators, the shorter range patrol planes flying from Britain and Canada left a 1000 mile gap, "the black pit" seamen called it, where the U-boats ranged freely and sank thousands of merchantmen. Too get the Liberators onto the North Atlantic patrol took direct orders from Churchill. The RAF wanted to use them for bombing Germany and resisted putting them on a navy mission.
Overy's second key campaign is the bombing campaign against German industry. Right after the war, we ran some surveys concluding that strategic bombing had not been very effective. Overy disagrees, he cites the decline in German oil production, and the destruction of the German Air Force by the Allied long range fighters escorting the bombers. By the end of the war, the Germans didn't have enough gasoline to fill a Zippo lighter. As an old Air Force veteran, I agree with Overy on this one.
For a third key campaign, Overy chooses the eastern front. In 1941, the German Army completely out classed the Red Army and beat them every time. The Germans got to the outskirts of Moscow, had they been able to take the city, Russian resistance might well have collapsed. Somehow, the Russians stayed the course, rebuilt their armies, produced thousands of T-34 tanks, better than anything the Germans had, and inflicted the crushing defeat at Stalingrad in 1942. Before Stalingrad the Germans had beaten the Russians every time. After Stalingrad, the Russians beat the Germans every time.
The last key campaign was D-Day, where the Allies put a huge army ashore, in the teeth of German resistance and succeeded. The Allies then encircled and destroyed the German army in France. For the rest of the war, the German's fought with newly raised formations, or units pulled away from the eastern front.
Anyhow, if you are a WWII buff, you want to read this book.
Overy starts out explaining how touch and go Allied victory was. In 1939,1940,and 1941 the Axis swept all before it. Their armies fought better and beat the Allied armies every time. Hitler overran all of Western Europe save Britain. Had the Germans been able to get the mines and farms and factories of this humongous area organized and producing, and the young men to enlist in the German army, he would have had an empire to match his enemies.
Overy's first crucial campaign was in the North Atlantic, where the U-boats had to be defeated. D-Day would not have been possible if the U-boats sank half the troops before they reached England. He attributes this victory to a handful of Consolidated B24 Liberator four engine bombers that had the range to run air patrols clean across the Atlantic. Prior to the Liberators, the shorter range patrol planes flying from Britain and Canada left a 1000 mile gap, "the black pit" seamen called it, where the U-boats ranged freely and sank thousands of merchantmen. Too get the Liberators onto the North Atlantic patrol took direct orders from Churchill. The RAF wanted to use them for bombing Germany and resisted putting them on a navy mission.
Overy's second key campaign is the bombing campaign against German industry. Right after the war, we ran some surveys concluding that strategic bombing had not been very effective. Overy disagrees, he cites the decline in German oil production, and the destruction of the German Air Force by the Allied long range fighters escorting the bombers. By the end of the war, the Germans didn't have enough gasoline to fill a Zippo lighter. As an old Air Force veteran, I agree with Overy on this one.
For a third key campaign, Overy chooses the eastern front. In 1941, the German Army completely out classed the Red Army and beat them every time. The Germans got to the outskirts of Moscow, had they been able to take the city, Russian resistance might well have collapsed. Somehow, the Russians stayed the course, rebuilt their armies, produced thousands of T-34 tanks, better than anything the Germans had, and inflicted the crushing defeat at Stalingrad in 1942. Before Stalingrad the Germans had beaten the Russians every time. After Stalingrad, the Russians beat the Germans every time.
The last key campaign was D-Day, where the Allies put a huge army ashore, in the teeth of German resistance and succeeded. The Allies then encircled and destroyed the German army in France. For the rest of the war, the German's fought with newly raised formations, or units pulled away from the eastern front.
Anyhow, if you are a WWII buff, you want to read this book.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Rant about the IRS
Dear IRS,
Next time you invent one of those damn forms try this. Give each box on the form a number, or a letter. Pick one (numbers or letters) and stick with it. Either give each box a number, or give each box a letter. Don't put numbers on some boxes and letters on other boxes. That's childish. And don't put a number and a letter on the same box.
Sincerely,
An Average Turbo Tax using Taxpayer.
Next time you invent one of those damn forms try this. Give each box on the form a number, or a letter. Pick one (numbers or letters) and stick with it. Either give each box a number, or give each box a letter. Don't put numbers on some boxes and letters on other boxes. That's childish. And don't put a number and a letter on the same box.
Sincerely,
An Average Turbo Tax using Taxpayer.
So why didn't she just slap him in the face?
That's what women used to do to men who got too pushy or grabby or kissy. Michelle Fields, the Breitbart reporter going after Corey Lewandowski doesn't seem to be that brave. She is yelling for cops and lawyers, where as a real women would have just smacked the guy.
Monday, March 28, 2016
147 FBI agents on the Hilliary server case
Wow. That's totally ridiculous. Ten agents would be too many.
Raise the cost of something and you get less of it
California is talking about going to the $15 an hour minimum wage state wide. That ought pretty much close out jobs for high schoolers and entry level workers. And if workers don't enter the job market, they don't continue in it.
Lots a Luck there California.
Lots a Luck there California.
Sunday, March 27, 2016
Orwell, blue jeans, pop music, movies, and fast cars won the Cold War
It took us 45 years, but we beat the Soviets without going to war. Way back when we all worried about the Cold War turning hot. Remember On the Beach? or Canticle for Liebowitz, or Seven Days in May? or "We will bury you" ? Amazingly, the fear of nuclear war on both sides restrained the military option, and the Cold War was fought out with propaganda, diplomacy, intelligence, and other non-lethal methods.
George Orwell got in the first solid hit with Animal Farm, and followed that up with 1984. Nobody could believe in the benevolence of communism after reading Orwell. Remember the Soviet spies Klaus Fuchs, the Rosenbergs, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, and John Cairncross? They (and a bunch of others) spied for the Soviets, even passed the secrets of the atomic bomb to Stalin. By all accounts, these guys, all university graduates, were ideologically convinced that communism was the wave of the future, and they were doing good by spying for the Soviets. After Orwell, nobody worked for the Soviets out of pure love of communism. The later spies were all working for money.
Levi Strauss got in the second solid hit with blue jeans. Popularized by Hollywood westerns, worn by American teenagers, they became ultra cool behind the Iron Curtain, and Soviet teenagers would go to extra ordinary lengths to get their hands on a pair. It was hard for the commissars to work up much antipathy toward the Americans when every young Russian wanted to dress like the Americans did.
Detroit did some good with hot cars like the Chevy 409, the 'Stang, the 426 Dodge, the 'Vette, the Pontiac GTO, The Judge, and the whole drag racing, Thunder Road, and NASCAR racing scene. Again, hard to get young Russians worked up against the Yankees, when every one of them wanted to get their hands on Detroit iron.
Pop music, Elvis, the Beatles, the Grateful Dead, and all the rest of 'em ruled. Along with Hollywood movies. Again, hard to stir up trouble when every one in Russia is listening to Western pop music. We need to resurrect both pop music and Hollywood, and make sure they are getting into ISIS land.
In short we took down the Soviets with coolness, consumer products, popular music and movies. Plus a few other things.
This ought to be our strategy for taking out Islamic extremism. It worked on the communists, it will work on the Islamic crazies.
George Orwell got in the first solid hit with Animal Farm, and followed that up with 1984. Nobody could believe in the benevolence of communism after reading Orwell. Remember the Soviet spies Klaus Fuchs, the Rosenbergs, Kim Philby, Guy Burgess, and John Cairncross? They (and a bunch of others) spied for the Soviets, even passed the secrets of the atomic bomb to Stalin. By all accounts, these guys, all university graduates, were ideologically convinced that communism was the wave of the future, and they were doing good by spying for the Soviets. After Orwell, nobody worked for the Soviets out of pure love of communism. The later spies were all working for money.
Levi Strauss got in the second solid hit with blue jeans. Popularized by Hollywood westerns, worn by American teenagers, they became ultra cool behind the Iron Curtain, and Soviet teenagers would go to extra ordinary lengths to get their hands on a pair. It was hard for the commissars to work up much antipathy toward the Americans when every young Russian wanted to dress like the Americans did.
Detroit did some good with hot cars like the Chevy 409, the 'Stang, the 426 Dodge, the 'Vette, the Pontiac GTO, The Judge, and the whole drag racing, Thunder Road, and NASCAR racing scene. Again, hard to get young Russians worked up against the Yankees, when every one of them wanted to get their hands on Detroit iron.
Pop music, Elvis, the Beatles, the Grateful Dead, and all the rest of 'em ruled. Along with Hollywood movies. Again, hard to stir up trouble when every one in Russia is listening to Western pop music. We need to resurrect both pop music and Hollywood, and make sure they are getting into ISIS land.
In short we took down the Soviets with coolness, consumer products, popular music and movies. Plus a few other things.
This ought to be our strategy for taking out Islamic extremism. It worked on the communists, it will work on the Islamic crazies.
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Trump 2016
A campaign sign, someone chalked on a wall at Emory University. Now we have Emory students and faculty crying about physic injuries and the need for counseling to over come the horror of seeing a campaign sign for a candidate they don't like.
Remind anyone you know not to apply to Emory, which seems to have forgotten that in the United States anyone can run for office, and put up signs, run TV commercials, plant yard signs, and electioneer especially on public property.
I don't like Trump much myself, but he has the right to run for president, and the right to electioneer.
Remind anyone you know not to apply to Emory, which seems to have forgotten that in the United States anyone can run for office, and put up signs, run TV commercials, plant yard signs, and electioneer especially on public property.
I don't like Trump much myself, but he has the right to run for president, and the right to electioneer.
Friday, March 25, 2016
I wonder why they didn't take him alive
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter announced that US special forces in a raid in Syria, killed the #2 ISIS guy. Good work. We ought to do more of this.
If we got close enough to this guy to snuff him, we must have been close enough to grab him and bring him back. An enemy this high up must know some things that we could sweat out of him, assuming we still have the stomach for a little wet work. Even if we don't do that kind of rough stuff anymore, we could still put him on trial for murder, and then execute him. Nice long trial, lots of weeping victims as witnesses, tasteful orange jumpsuit accessorized with shiny handcuffs.
If we got close enough to this guy to snuff him, we must have been close enough to grab him and bring him back. An enemy this high up must know some things that we could sweat out of him, assuming we still have the stomach for a little wet work. Even if we don't do that kind of rough stuff anymore, we could still put him on trial for murder, and then execute him. Nice long trial, lots of weeping victims as witnesses, tasteful orange jumpsuit accessorized with shiny handcuffs.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
I wonder what they are doing to us.
From Megavote:
Genetically Modified Organism Food Labeling – Cloture Vote Rejected (48-49, 3 Not Voting) The Senate rejected a McConnell, R-Ky., motion to invoke cloture on the motion to concur in the House message to an unrelated bill (S 764) with a Senate amendment containing the genetically modified organism food labeling measure. The amendment would have blocked state and local labeling requirements for genetically engineered food and seeds. It also would have required the Agriculture Department to establish a national voluntary labeling standard for bioengineered foods, and later would have required the department to issue a mandatory standard if there is not at least "70 percent substantial participation" in voluntary labeling. Sixty votes were required to invoke cloture. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen voted NO Sen. Kelly Ayotte voted YES
" Motion to invoke Cloture on the motion to concur in the House message to an unrelated bill with a Senate amendment containing the GMO food labeling measure. "
What in Hell does that mean? Are we for GMO labeling or against it?
All I know is my democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen voted NO, and my good republican senator Kelly Ayotte voted yes. I think Jeanne Shaheen is slime, and I trust Kelly Ayotte. But it would be nice to know if Kelly's NO meant she was stopping the GMO labeling bill or promoting it.
This is an example of modern Congressional procedure, make everything so opaque that the voter's don't know which way their rep or senator voted. Give the Congress critters the option of claiming they were both for it and agin it, all in one opaque vote. The vote should have been, do we pass this GMO labeling bill, yes or no. Then at least we voter would know what is going down.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
What the Euro's ought to be doing
After the Brussels airport atrocity, the Europeans need to tighten things up. First off, they need to catch the perps, and most important, once caught, put them on trial and convict them of premeditated murder, and sentence them to death. And force the courts to get it done within six months from the arrest. And actually carry out the death sentence, not take ten years of appeals and welfare for lawyers. The deterrence effect of conviction and punishment wears off over time. When the courts take ten or twenty years to render a decision, nobody cares. I can't get excited about a ten year old crime. Too much time has passed. But I can get excited about a fresh horror.
BTW, US courts need to get on the stick too. For instance they haven't done a thing about Tsarnaev, the Boston Bomber and it's been three years.
Second, Euro cops need to develop some sources, informants, who can tip them off to bad guys setting up to do bad. The cops need to be where the perps live. They cannot write off the Molembeeks and the banlieus as "too tough to bother with". You gotta have cops, on foot patrol, making contacts, and developing informants in the places that the bad guys live. You start with the shop keepers and the landlords. Let them know that hordes of government inspectors, tax audits, and other official badness will descend upon them if then don't become informants, and finger bad guys. Every small time criminal they catch, is offered a choice between cooperation with the cops, or prosecution. A few months of this will develop some sources.
Then the EU needs take real military action in Syria. Like send in an army, occupy the place, blow Assad and his government away, execute what ISIS people they catch. Set up decent law enforcement, fire protection, and get the schools open and operating. Make sure they are real schools and not Islamic madrassahs. Do land reform, namely dispossess the landlords, and give the land out to the farmers who actually work the land. Give those farmers good titles to their land, and make sure the courts enforce the new titles. Set up land offices to record exactly who owns what. Fix up the irrigation systems, canals, reservoirs, dams, pumps, locks, and such. Get the local industry back into business, hiring people and paying wages. Give military protection to any place that employs people (out side of family members) Set up some banks to finance business. Make Syria a decent place to live, with jobs and a rule of law and then the Euros won't have all those Syrian refugees swarming into Europe.
This might take a few years and cost a bundle, but it's worth it.
BTW, US courts need to get on the stick too. For instance they haven't done a thing about Tsarnaev, the Boston Bomber and it's been three years.
Second, Euro cops need to develop some sources, informants, who can tip them off to bad guys setting up to do bad. The cops need to be where the perps live. They cannot write off the Molembeeks and the banlieus as "too tough to bother with". You gotta have cops, on foot patrol, making contacts, and developing informants in the places that the bad guys live. You start with the shop keepers and the landlords. Let them know that hordes of government inspectors, tax audits, and other official badness will descend upon them if then don't become informants, and finger bad guys. Every small time criminal they catch, is offered a choice between cooperation with the cops, or prosecution. A few months of this will develop some sources.
Then the EU needs take real military action in Syria. Like send in an army, occupy the place, blow Assad and his government away, execute what ISIS people they catch. Set up decent law enforcement, fire protection, and get the schools open and operating. Make sure they are real schools and not Islamic madrassahs. Do land reform, namely dispossess the landlords, and give the land out to the farmers who actually work the land. Give those farmers good titles to their land, and make sure the courts enforce the new titles. Set up land offices to record exactly who owns what. Fix up the irrigation systems, canals, reservoirs, dams, pumps, locks, and such. Get the local industry back into business, hiring people and paying wages. Give military protection to any place that employs people (out side of family members) Set up some banks to finance business. Make Syria a decent place to live, with jobs and a rule of law and then the Euros won't have all those Syrian refugees swarming into Europe.
This might take a few years and cost a bundle, but it's worth it.
Trump is still ahead, Cruz is not dead yet
According to FiveThirtyEight.com Trump now has 754 delegates, Cruz has 465. Trump won Arizona, Cruz won Utah. To clinch the nomination, you need 1237 delegates by convention time. If no one has 1237 (a real possibility) then all kinds of wheeling and dealing take place at the convention to select a nominee. We have a lot of heavy duty primaries still to go.
Cruz must be out talking to all the delegates won by candidates who dropped out, and Kasich who might drop out. We can assume he is saying " Get behind me, we can beat Trump, and I'll reward you with cabinet jobs, the vice presidency, and some nice pork to take back to your district." Whether anyone is listening is unknown.
Whether Trump or even Cruz will collect the required 1237 delegates before the convention is too close to call. Trump is really good on TV, and stands for taking names and kicking ass. Lotta people like that. He also has a lot of enemies, and the worst unfavorable rating of anyone in politics, worse even than Hilliary, who is pretty bad herself. The anti Trump people, who include the party establishment have three more months for Trump bashing. It might work, although it hasn't been very effective so far.
Cruz must be out talking to all the delegates won by candidates who dropped out, and Kasich who might drop out. We can assume he is saying " Get behind me, we can beat Trump, and I'll reward you with cabinet jobs, the vice presidency, and some nice pork to take back to your district." Whether anyone is listening is unknown.
Whether Trump or even Cruz will collect the required 1237 delegates before the convention is too close to call. Trump is really good on TV, and stands for taking names and kicking ass. Lotta people like that. He also has a lot of enemies, and the worst unfavorable rating of anyone in politics, worse even than Hilliary, who is pretty bad herself. The anti Trump people, who include the party establishment have three more months for Trump bashing. It might work, although it hasn't been very effective so far.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
You oughta get out and vote
Even if you don't like your party's nominee. If you don't vote, you forfeit any rights to complain about what the government is doing for the next four years. You got two candidates going for each open office. One of the two has to be better than the other. It is your responsibility as a citizen of a democracy to vote for the better of the two candidates. Can't tell which candidate is better? You haven't done your home work. Go to each candidates website. It's the 21st century, they all got websites now. Read their campaign promises. You gotta like one set of promises better than the other. Google on the candidate's name. See what kinda dirt comes up. See who endorses them. If all fails, flip a coin. But go out and vote. If you don't, the worse guy will win.
If the choice for president comes down to Trump vs Hilliary, neither of which I like much, you gotta make a pick. And vote your pick.
If the choice for president comes down to Trump vs Hilliary, neither of which I like much, you gotta make a pick. And vote your pick.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Kasich, Trump and Cruz address AIPAC
AIPAC, American Israeli Political Action Committee. I watched Kasich, followed by Trump, followed by Cruz address this Jewish pro Israel group. All three of 'em said all the right things, and received lots of applause. This is an important group, they represent most American Jews, who can be a decisive factor in American elections. Most Jews back the state of Israel all the way, although they tend to vote democratic. After 8 years of Obama trashing Israel, they might b ready to vote Republican.
Parts per trillion
Apparently some chemical that I never heard of was detected is some water wells in some obscure NH towns whose names mean nothing to me. They finally got a guy on from state Dept of Environmental Services who actually knew a few things. Apparently the contamination is no worse than 100 parts per trillion. Wow. First time I have heard things quoted as parts per trillion. Used to be one part per million was about the limit of lab work.
Then he said that the EPA limit for magic chemical (SFRA? something strange) was 400 parts per trillion. In short the detected levels are still way below the limit.
Could the newsies be looking for something they can blow up into a Flint Michigan type scandal?
Then he said that the EPA limit for magic chemical (SFRA? something strange) was 400 parts per trillion. In short the detected levels are still way below the limit.
Could the newsies be looking for something they can blow up into a Flint Michigan type scandal?
New Hampshire un employment rate down to 2.7%
Wow. Best in the nation. Labor utilization rate is 78%, best in the nation. The NPR commentators were talking about business leaving the state 'cause they cannot find workers.
Talk about a quick turnaround. Things were so bad up here a couple of years ago my youngest son had to go out the North Dakota to find work. I'm sorta wondering if the unemployment rate is low because all the able bodied workers have already left NH to find work out of state.
Then the NPR pundits started talking magic talk, like how commuter rail to Manchester would attract workers from out of state. And how NH needs to do something (unspecified) to the NH schools to produce more "trained" workers.
Talk about a quick turnaround. Things were so bad up here a couple of years ago my youngest son had to go out the North Dakota to find work. I'm sorta wondering if the unemployment rate is low because all the able bodied workers have already left NH to find work out of state.
Then the NPR pundits started talking magic talk, like how commuter rail to Manchester would attract workers from out of state. And how NH needs to do something (unspecified) to the NH schools to produce more "trained" workers.
National Progressive Radio wants to give Gitmo back to Cuba
NPR ran a medium length piece about this this morning. They dwelt on the history, Gitmo was war booty to us after the Spanish American war of 1898. Which was a long time ago. According to NPR the Cubans are still all hot and bothered about it, and we could make peace and goodness and light flow by giving it back to Cuba.
Wanna bet The Donald could cut a better deal than that?
Wanna bet The Donald could cut a better deal than that?
Sunday, March 20, 2016
So why is Obama making nice to Cuba?
Well, it looks good to the lefties in the Democratic party, but do ordinary Americans approve? Or care? I think most Cubans in the country are refugees from Castro, and would be happier to nuke Cuba than to recognize Cuba. I suppose Obama will get some "legacy" out of it, but does the US as a whole, not just Obama and his cronies, get anything out of it?
Where is Tom Clancy (and Jack Ryan) when we need them?
Say what you will about Tom Clancy's books, they were good action adventure, where the Americans are the good guys, and American ingenuity, courage, and advanced technology win the day in the end. Clancy's hero, Jack Ryan, starting as a CIA operative in Hunt for Red October, works his way up to President of the US by the final stories. Compared to the current flock of presidential wannabees, Jack Ryan looks pretty good, well read, well educated, brave, intelligent, a good shot, able to lead a team of top flight people, and able to take advice. In contrast to today's crop.
In Clancy's literary universe, America is a special country, faced with numerous low life overseas enemies. And America manages to come out on top of them in every story. Good fun reads. Back in his heighday, Tom Clancy was selling more hardbacks than every other author, all put together. Makes you feel good about being an American. Too bad Clancy died a little while ago.
In Clancy's literary universe, America is a special country, faced with numerous low life overseas enemies. And America manages to come out on top of them in every story. Good fun reads. Back in his heighday, Tom Clancy was selling more hardbacks than every other author, all put together. Makes you feel good about being an American. Too bad Clancy died a little while ago.
Friday, March 18, 2016
Whither the Republican party?
Lotta handwringing going on. The Donald is leading in pledged delegates right now. He seems to pick up 35% of the primary vote every time. Right now he has 600 and some delegates, only half what is needed to clinch the Republican nomination. Ted Cruz is behind, but not impossibly far behind, with maybe 400 and some delegates. Maybe The Donald will pick up another 600 delegates by convention time, which will give him 1237, the amount needed to win out right. And maybe he won't. No body knows, and nobody really believes the polls.
If The Donald gets enough delegates by convention time, he still has a problem. Although 35% of the party likes him enough to vote for him, that leaves 65% of the party that doesn't like him, plus all the democrats don't like him. Does not look good for The Donald to beat Hilliary. The Republican establishment is scared out of their socks by these odds. If The Donald leads the party to a resounding defeat in November, they will most likely get voted out of office themselves. So they are going all out to get anyone besides The Donald nominated. At this point, the only likely alternative is Ted Cruz. All the other candidates have dropped out (except Kasich who doesn't have much in the way of delegates). The Trump voters will be outraged by a convention that doesn't nominate their man and might do all sorts of bad things.
If The Donald lacks the delegates by convention time, all sorts of things might happen. Ted Cruz might be able to pull all the non Trump delegates behind him and get the nomination on a later ballot. The establishment might try to slip in Romney or McCain, or some body, anybody else. If they succeed they will outrage all the voters, which is a bad thing. Some charismatic nobody might arise and sweep thru the convention on a wave of applause. That happened, once, Wendell Wilkie back in 1940. Hasn't happened since.
Or something else might happen. Stay tuned.
If The Donald gets enough delegates by convention time, he still has a problem. Although 35% of the party likes him enough to vote for him, that leaves 65% of the party that doesn't like him, plus all the democrats don't like him. Does not look good for The Donald to beat Hilliary. The Republican establishment is scared out of their socks by these odds. If The Donald leads the party to a resounding defeat in November, they will most likely get voted out of office themselves. So they are going all out to get anyone besides The Donald nominated. At this point, the only likely alternative is Ted Cruz. All the other candidates have dropped out (except Kasich who doesn't have much in the way of delegates). The Trump voters will be outraged by a convention that doesn't nominate their man and might do all sorts of bad things.
If The Donald lacks the delegates by convention time, all sorts of things might happen. Ted Cruz might be able to pull all the non Trump delegates behind him and get the nomination on a later ballot. The establishment might try to slip in Romney or McCain, or some body, anybody else. If they succeed they will outrage all the voters, which is a bad thing. Some charismatic nobody might arise and sweep thru the convention on a wave of applause. That happened, once, Wendell Wilkie back in 1940. Hasn't happened since.
Or something else might happen. Stay tuned.
Captain Obvious does a "research" project
Heard this one on NHPR this morning. Recent research shows that well dressed men do better in business deals than slobs. The research had some "test" candidates, one dressed in a business suit and the dressed in a sweatsuit, negotiate a real estate deal. The guys in business suits got the better deal every time. They interviewed a software guy who said he felt better and wrote better code wearing a good shirt with a collar, rather than a grubby T-shirt. Highly objective a repeatable evidence that is.
They need to do research on this?
Fifty years ago, Air Force ROTC trained us officer cadets to look sharp, always wear a clean pressed uniform, keep our hair cut, and keep our shoes shined. The troops are more likely to listen to a sharply uniformed officer than to a slob. A principle of leadership it was called. For that matter, everybody knows that you always wear coat and tie on a job interview.
Sounds like those "researchers" were looking for something to blow their grant money on.
They need to do research on this?
Fifty years ago, Air Force ROTC trained us officer cadets to look sharp, always wear a clean pressed uniform, keep our hair cut, and keep our shoes shined. The troops are more likely to listen to a sharply uniformed officer than to a slob. A principle of leadership it was called. For that matter, everybody knows that you always wear coat and tie on a job interview.
Sounds like those "researchers" were looking for something to blow their grant money on.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs by Lisa Randall
Lisa Randall, a Harvard professor of science, attempts to link up the dinosaur killer meteor strike of 65 million years ago with dark matter. It's an interesting read. Dark matter is mysterious, but it's existence is generally accepted. Observation of the rotation of galaxies, shows them rotating so fast that they ought to fly apart. The equations for speed of rotation of a satellite about it's primary go back to Isaac Newton, and are taught in sophomore physics, which makes them well known and universally accepted. Essentially, if a satellite rotates too fast, centrifugal force makes it fly off into outer space and stop being a satellite. If it moves too slowly, the primary's gravity sucks it down and it stops being a satellite and becomes a crater.
The only reasonable answer to the high rotation speed of the galaxies it to assume they contain more matter than you can account for by counting up the stars in the galaxy and estimating their masses. In fact the galaxies come up way short on visible (light emitting) matter, like short by a factor of two or more. So, it's generally accepted that galaxies, including our own Milky Way galaxy, contain a lot of dark matter that does not show up as stars. Just what form this dark matter takes, is unknown at the moment. Lotta people are working on it, and we may have an answer any time now.
Now the author turns to the great dinosaur killer meteor. She wants to show that the Yucatan impact of 65 million years ago is a cyclical event, reoccurring at intervals of 30 million years or so. She cites studies of meteor craters and plots the number and/or size of known craters vs age. These plots give a wavery line on graph paper, and just eyeballing the line doesn't show any apparent periodicity. She goes into a long discussion about just how much periodicity, as opposed to pure random chance, you need to detect it in a graph. Surprise, she never mentioned the standard mathematical method of determining periodicity in any kind of line, the Fourier transform. Apparently she, a Harvard professor, has never heard of Fourier transforms. Well perhaps that's understandable, Fourier transforms are only taught in electrical engineering, no other branch of science has much need for them. Anyhow, without performing the definitive test for periodicity, the author assumes the giant meteor strikes reoccur every 30 million years and then presses on to explain how the Milky Way has a thin disc of dark matter at it's center, and the solar system passes back and forth thru this dark matter disc as it rotates around the galactic core on a 30 million year cycle. Somehow, passage thru the dark matter disk upsets objects in the Kuiper Belt, dragging them out of their nice circular orbits and tossing them down toward the sun in narrow elliptical orbits. Every so often one of them hits the earth, giving us a dino killer event.
It's an interesting read. I also think it's a long stretch.
The only reasonable answer to the high rotation speed of the galaxies it to assume they contain more matter than you can account for by counting up the stars in the galaxy and estimating their masses. In fact the galaxies come up way short on visible (light emitting) matter, like short by a factor of two or more. So, it's generally accepted that galaxies, including our own Milky Way galaxy, contain a lot of dark matter that does not show up as stars. Just what form this dark matter takes, is unknown at the moment. Lotta people are working on it, and we may have an answer any time now.
Now the author turns to the great dinosaur killer meteor. She wants to show that the Yucatan impact of 65 million years ago is a cyclical event, reoccurring at intervals of 30 million years or so. She cites studies of meteor craters and plots the number and/or size of known craters vs age. These plots give a wavery line on graph paper, and just eyeballing the line doesn't show any apparent periodicity. She goes into a long discussion about just how much periodicity, as opposed to pure random chance, you need to detect it in a graph. Surprise, she never mentioned the standard mathematical method of determining periodicity in any kind of line, the Fourier transform. Apparently she, a Harvard professor, has never heard of Fourier transforms. Well perhaps that's understandable, Fourier transforms are only taught in electrical engineering, no other branch of science has much need for them. Anyhow, without performing the definitive test for periodicity, the author assumes the giant meteor strikes reoccur every 30 million years and then presses on to explain how the Milky Way has a thin disc of dark matter at it's center, and the solar system passes back and forth thru this dark matter disc as it rotates around the galactic core on a 30 million year cycle. Somehow, passage thru the dark matter disk upsets objects in the Kuiper Belt, dragging them out of their nice circular orbits and tossing them down toward the sun in narrow elliptical orbits. Every so often one of them hits the earth, giving us a dino killer event.
It's an interesting read. I also think it's a long stretch.
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