Read scathing critique here. The problem is simple, after the last shuttle flight, the US has no way to get astronauts into orbit. Current fix is to pay the Russians to haul our astronauts up to the International Space Station. This is distasteful, especially as it converts the ISS into a Russian space station. So long as the Russians control access to the station, they control the station.
Technical solution is straight forward. Build a spaceship to replace the shuttle.
NASA decided to start from scratch and design a brand new rocket booster and a brand new capsule. This is the high risk expensive way to do it, but doing new designs is fun. All the NASA people, who have been pushing paper for years, jumped on the chance to do actual hardware development. Actual hardware development is much more fun than pushing paper.
Instead we should purchase the rocket boosters that have been launching commercial satellites for years and build a capsule to go on top of it. Capsules, compared to Shuttle Orbiters, are simple and reliable. A simple one piece heat shield, an air tight hull, a hatch, attitude thrusters, a parachute, and a solid fuel retro rocket.
All simple off the shelf components that could be assembled and flight tested in side a year. This is cheap and dependable, unlike the Shuttle which is expensive and dangerous. In fact Shuttle retirement is happening because NASA has finally learned how dangerous and fears the PR disaster of another Shuttle crash.
The current Obama plan is to continue the "build a new launch from scratch" plan but only give it enough money to do paper studies. This avoids having to announce the end of manned US spaceflight and having to put any money into it.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Bugs in Blogspot?
When replying to comments on this here blog, my replies get posted twice for some reason or other. Dunno how to fix it. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Open vs closed primarys
You must have read about unhappiness in Delaware by now. The Party's senatorial candidate, Mike Castle, got beat by the Tea Party candidate, Christine O'Donnell. Party people, Karl Rove, the loser himself, and other pundits have been wailing and gnashing their teeth claiming O'Donnell is unelectable and the dastardly Tea Party has thrown to Delaware Senate seat to the democrats.
I moved out of Delaware 40 years ago and haven't been back much since. So I have no clue as the the electability of anyone down there any more. But, if O'Donnell can win the primary she must be doing something right. The nay sayers respond that only Republicans can vote in the Delaware primary and O'Donnell is too something or other and the independents won't vote for her.
Up here in NH we have an open primary. Independents can vote in the primaries and we allow voters to switch party allegiance on election day and then switch it back on the way out the door of the polls.
Independents are important. They hold the balance of power. Most places have 40% registered democrats, 40% registered republicans and the rest independents. Who ever the independents go for, wins the election. With an open primary, the independents get a say in how conservative or how liberal the party candidates are. As a rule, independents are more middle of the road than party members. So allowing independents to vote in the primary has the effect of nominating more electable candidates.
With an open primary, NH republicans have nominated a field of good solid conservatives, people with name recognition amount the voters and honorable records of public service.
I moved out of Delaware 40 years ago and haven't been back much since. So I have no clue as the the electability of anyone down there any more. But, if O'Donnell can win the primary she must be doing something right. The nay sayers respond that only Republicans can vote in the Delaware primary and O'Donnell is too something or other and the independents won't vote for her.
Up here in NH we have an open primary. Independents can vote in the primaries and we allow voters to switch party allegiance on election day and then switch it back on the way out the door of the polls.
Independents are important. They hold the balance of power. Most places have 40% registered democrats, 40% registered republicans and the rest independents. Who ever the independents go for, wins the election. With an open primary, the independents get a say in how conservative or how liberal the party candidates are. As a rule, independents are more middle of the road than party members. So allowing independents to vote in the primary has the effect of nominating more electable candidates.
With an open primary, NH republicans have nominated a field of good solid conservatives, people with name recognition amount the voters and honorable records of public service.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Primary Day
I got up yesterday at 0630. Made breakfast, fed the cat, loaded the car (signs, coffee thermos, camera) and set off for the polls. Got there as the polls opened. For poll watchers we had Russ Cumbee, holding signs for Kelly Ayotte (Republican senatorial candidate) , Kathy Taylor's husband holding a sign for Kathy (my opponent in the general election) and Marsha Graham holding signs for Anne Kuster (democratic US rep) and me holding a sign for myself (republican state Rep). All poll watchers in place and on duty long before the first voters appeared. Voting was heavy for an off year primary. Franconia had about 250 ballots cast out of 1000 registered voters. Bethlehem had about the same. The republicans had serious competition for nearly every office, so more Republicans than democrats voted.
Weather was variable, sun and showers. The showers were heavy, and cold. Holding an umbrella and two signs in a high wind takes some skill, especially if you want the umbrella to survive the experience. All concerned were thankful when the polls closed at 7PM.
Results are mixed. Republicans selected Charlie Bass for US Rep, John Stephan for governor, and the senate spot is contested between Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne. Ovide came from absolutely nowheresville to striking distance of victory in just the last couple of weeks. Talk of recount is in the air, but nothing official, yet.
Weather was variable, sun and showers. The showers were heavy, and cold. Holding an umbrella and two signs in a high wind takes some skill, especially if you want the umbrella to survive the experience. All concerned were thankful when the polls closed at 7PM.
Results are mixed. Republicans selected Charlie Bass for US Rep, John Stephan for governor, and the senate spot is contested between Kelly Ayotte and Ovide Lamontagne. Ovide came from absolutely nowheresville to striking distance of victory in just the last couple of weeks. Talk of recount is in the air, but nothing official, yet.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Basil boosts bank reserves
Since Great Depression 2.0 kicked off in '08 there has been a lot of talk about doing something about the banks. Looks like the international banking community is finally taking some action.
The subject is reserves, how much money must a bank hold in its vault to pay out withdrawals and cover losses. If a million dollar bank loan goes bad (borrower stops making payments) the bank ought to have a million dollars in reserves so it can stay in business, pay out withdrawals and even have a little money to do new loans with.
Notice that the Basil people cannot bring them selves to just post a level of reserves. That's too easy and people might understand what's going down. Instead they announce a complex mix of reserve levels which add up to 7% or maybe 10% depending upon the phase of the moon.
The issue is that banks hate holding money in the vault. They want to loan it all out to make more money. US banks have been holding about 4% reserves which is almost enough. All the real banks (except Citi) rode out the financial storms. The failures were all "near banks", brokerage houses (Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch), insurance companies (AIG) and mortgage makers (Countrywide), or little banks that FDIC could pay off.
The other issue is the quality of reserves. Ideally banks would hold real cash, bundles of dollar bills, neatly wrapped, in their vault. The Basil paper seems to give some leeway here. For instance, US banks can deposit their reserves with the Federal Reserve Bank and draw a bit of interest. They can buy T-bills 'cause they are as good as cash. Things get flakey from there. European banks used hold mortgage backed securities as reserves. This killed a flock of European banks when the mortgage backed securities suddenly became worthless in 07.
The Basil document is important, 'cause banking is a mobile business. Money is light and easy to ship. Banks can easily set up to do business in the country with the most lenient banking laws. Pass a Sarbanes Oxley bill and watch all the merger and acquisition business move out of New York and over to London. So we need a world wide agreement to actually do anything effective. As opposed to national regulation that merely drives banking business of of the country.
The subject is reserves, how much money must a bank hold in its vault to pay out withdrawals and cover losses. If a million dollar bank loan goes bad (borrower stops making payments) the bank ought to have a million dollars in reserves so it can stay in business, pay out withdrawals and even have a little money to do new loans with.
Notice that the Basil people cannot bring them selves to just post a level of reserves. That's too easy and people might understand what's going down. Instead they announce a complex mix of reserve levels which add up to 7% or maybe 10% depending upon the phase of the moon.
The issue is that banks hate holding money in the vault. They want to loan it all out to make more money. US banks have been holding about 4% reserves which is almost enough. All the real banks (except Citi) rode out the financial storms. The failures were all "near banks", brokerage houses (Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch), insurance companies (AIG) and mortgage makers (Countrywide), or little banks that FDIC could pay off.
The other issue is the quality of reserves. Ideally banks would hold real cash, bundles of dollar bills, neatly wrapped, in their vault. The Basil paper seems to give some leeway here. For instance, US banks can deposit their reserves with the Federal Reserve Bank and draw a bit of interest. They can buy T-bills 'cause they are as good as cash. Things get flakey from there. European banks used hold mortgage backed securities as reserves. This killed a flock of European banks when the mortgage backed securities suddenly became worthless in 07.
The Basil document is important, 'cause banking is a mobile business. Money is light and easy to ship. Banks can easily set up to do business in the country with the most lenient banking laws. Pass a Sarbanes Oxley bill and watch all the merger and acquisition business move out of New York and over to London. So we need a world wide agreement to actually do anything effective. As opposed to national regulation that merely drives banking business of of the country.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
NHPR and the Infrastructure
There was a somewhat confused young lady on NHPR this morning emoting over the terrible state of American "infrastructure". She never defined this somewhat nebulous term, but from context I believe she was talking about roads, railroads, and airways. She was convinced that the "infrastructure" was in terrible shape and needed massive amounts of work. Well paid work naturally.
Do I believe this? I drove to DC in May and Brooklyn in August. The interstates were all open, smoothly paved, and except where construction was occurring, in great shape.
Then she moved on to rail. The country desperately needs "high speed rail", and trains are so green because they are electrically powered. Two whoppers for the price of one. We already have high speed rail running from Boston to Washington. That's the only US route where high speed rail is competitive with flying. The East coast cities are close together and the train can match airline time. Most other US city pairs are so far apart that everybody flies. The second whopper concerns the electric power bit. Actually, nearly all trains are pulled by diesel locomotives. Only on the most heavily traveled routes does it pay to install the costly overhead wire needed for electric locomotives.
For closers, she must have been exposed to the sales pitch from the "NextGen" air traffic control system vendors. She claimed that "Nextgen" would save much jet fuel from better routing of airliners.
Not so. Nextgen would enrich a number of equipment suppliers but would have little effect on air traffic. Nextgen would replace the current ground radar system with GPS. Aircraft would all carry GPS equipment and the onboard GPS would radio the plane's position to air traffic control. GPS is accurate to tens of feet where as ground radar is only accurate to a couple of miles. However the couple of mile accuracy of radar is plenty good enough to avoid mid air collisions. The greater accuracy of GPS doesn't really do anything that needs doing. It takes the same amount of fuel to cover the distance no matter how accurately air traffic control knows the position of the plane in the air.
Do I believe this? I drove to DC in May and Brooklyn in August. The interstates were all open, smoothly paved, and except where construction was occurring, in great shape.
Then she moved on to rail. The country desperately needs "high speed rail", and trains are so green because they are electrically powered. Two whoppers for the price of one. We already have high speed rail running from Boston to Washington. That's the only US route where high speed rail is competitive with flying. The East coast cities are close together and the train can match airline time. Most other US city pairs are so far apart that everybody flies. The second whopper concerns the electric power bit. Actually, nearly all trains are pulled by diesel locomotives. Only on the most heavily traveled routes does it pay to install the costly overhead wire needed for electric locomotives.
For closers, she must have been exposed to the sales pitch from the "NextGen" air traffic control system vendors. She claimed that "Nextgen" would save much jet fuel from better routing of airliners.
Not so. Nextgen would enrich a number of equipment suppliers but would have little effect on air traffic. Nextgen would replace the current ground radar system with GPS. Aircraft would all carry GPS equipment and the onboard GPS would radio the plane's position to air traffic control. GPS is accurate to tens of feet where as ground radar is only accurate to a couple of miles. However the couple of mile accuracy of radar is plenty good enough to avoid mid air collisions. The greater accuracy of GPS doesn't really do anything that needs doing. It takes the same amount of fuel to cover the distance no matter how accurately air traffic control knows the position of the plane in the air.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Chevrolet Caprice returns from the dead
Looks like Chevy wants to reclaim its share of the taxi/cop car market from Ford Crown Victoria. They may not be quite ready for prime time, but Chevy has a web site up to sell Caprices to cops.
Sic Transit Morning Gloria
Way back in spring, I fell for the flower seed display down at Mac's. I have a porch supported by a couple of rusty pipe columns. I bought a pack of morning glory seeds, thinking the climbing plant would cover up the rust. I planted them, watered them and nothing happened all summer. Not a morning glory to be seen.
Finally, yesterday, a pair of perfect morning glory blossoms appeared. Better late than never. This morning I took the camera down to photograph them. Arrg. They weren't blooming anymore. The two blossoms were all shriveled up and looked totally spent. Either morning glory only blooms for 24 hours, or the overnight chill (it got down to 40, but no frost) did them in.
Take home. Don't plant morning glory in Mittersill.
Finally, yesterday, a pair of perfect morning glory blossoms appeared. Better late than never. This morning I took the camera down to photograph them. Arrg. They weren't blooming anymore. The two blossoms were all shriveled up and looked totally spent. Either morning glory only blooms for 24 hours, or the overnight chill (it got down to 40, but no frost) did them in.
Take home. Don't plant morning glory in Mittersill.
Earmarks
Basically I'm agin 'em. The word is used for two somewhat different political maneuvers. Type A earmarks are special goodies written into (or slipped into) appropriations bills at the behest of your friendly local pol. The pols think bringing home the bacon makes their constituents love them and vote for their reelection. Most pols partake of type A earmarks with the exception of crusty conservatives like John McCain.
Type B earmarks dedicate the revenue from a tax to a specific purpose. For instance gasoline tax revenue is earmarked for highway construction. The supporters of NH gambling were going to earmark the revenue from the gambling tax to the department of health & human services. The revenue from RGGI energy taxes was earmarked for energy conservation projects. The green community was outraged when the legislature diverted RGGI money to the general fund.
I believe that the legislature ought to have the freedom to spend the state's limited revenues on the most urgent requirements. The earmarked revenue gets spent on the earmarked program regardless of need.
Of course, very occasionally, a good Type A earmark comes along. Good ole Judd Gregg slipped thru an earmark that brought some federal dollars to rebuild the Litteton Opera House. The restored Opera House is a beautiful building standing upon a commanding site and Littleton just wouldn't be the same without it. So let us enjoy our good earmark while making a New Year's resolution to sin no more.
Type B earmarks dedicate the revenue from a tax to a specific purpose. For instance gasoline tax revenue is earmarked for highway construction. The supporters of NH gambling were going to earmark the revenue from the gambling tax to the department of health & human services. The revenue from RGGI energy taxes was earmarked for energy conservation projects. The green community was outraged when the legislature diverted RGGI money to the general fund.
I believe that the legislature ought to have the freedom to spend the state's limited revenues on the most urgent requirements. The earmarked revenue gets spent on the earmarked program regardless of need.
Of course, very occasionally, a good Type A earmark comes along. Good ole Judd Gregg slipped thru an earmark that brought some federal dollars to rebuild the Litteton Opera House. The restored Opera House is a beautiful building standing upon a commanding site and Littleton just wouldn't be the same without it. So let us enjoy our good earmark while making a New Year's resolution to sin no more.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Harrisburg, PA goes broke
The city of Harrisburg failed to make a $3.29 million bond payment yesterday according to the Wall St Journal. The straw that broke the camel's back is apparently a municipal incinerator. Built in the 1970's and "retrofitted to meet code" in the uh-oh's the incinerator carries $288 million in debt. The city of Harrisburg's population is only 47,000, so each man woman and child is responsible for $6127.66 worth of incinerator debt.
They will never pay that off, so they might as well declare bankruptcy and teach investors not to fund unaffordable projects.
Let's hope our NH state and town legislators are wise enough to avoid buying white elephants like this one.
They will never pay that off, so they might as well declare bankruptcy and teach investors not to fund unaffordable projects.
Let's hope our NH state and town legislators are wise enough to avoid buying white elephants like this one.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
We are getting testy
Today's mail brought TWO 8 by 10 inch postcards. One from Bill Binnie saying bad things about Kelley Ayotte and one from Kelly Ayotte saying bad things about Bill Binnie. Primary is almost here. Gotta get the slams in before the polls close...
Programming the car
New (new to me anyway) Mercury came with a couple of built in annoyances. An aggressive seat belt warning buzzer, and the automatic door locker. Although I do wear seat belts on the road, it's nice to be able to just move the car into the garage or over to the next driveway without listening to the buzzer nagging at me.
I googled for "Mercury seat belt buzzer" and sure enough, an answer came up. There is a disable procedure, it's printed in the owner's manual. The owner's manual is only 200 pages or so thick, and I need Google assistance to find anything in it. Wait til I need to lookup proper tire pressure...
Any how, the seat belt buzzer defeat only requires you to buckle and unbuckle the seat belt 9 times inside of 30 seconds. And the nasty noise goes away.
After this bit of wisdom from the owner's manual, I decided to press my luck and see what it said about disabling the auto door locker. Yes, it can be done. Press the power door unlock button three times in a row with the ignition on, and three more with the ignition off and it's gone.
Just a little programming and I have a nice polite car that doesn't bug me any more.
I googled for "Mercury seat belt buzzer" and sure enough, an answer came up. There is a disable procedure, it's printed in the owner's manual. The owner's manual is only 200 pages or so thick, and I need Google assistance to find anything in it. Wait til I need to lookup proper tire pressure...
Any how, the seat belt buzzer defeat only requires you to buckle and unbuckle the seat belt 9 times inside of 30 seconds. And the nasty noise goes away.
After this bit of wisdom from the owner's manual, I decided to press my luck and see what it said about disabling the auto door locker. Yes, it can be done. Press the power door unlock button three times in a row with the ignition on, and three more with the ignition off and it's gone.
Just a little programming and I have a nice polite car that doesn't bug me any more.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Repli Cars. We NEED a repli MG
Given that the worldwide car industry is clueless, they have been reviving great cars from the past. Call them replicars. We have a replica Beetle from VW, a replica '39 Plymouth from Chrysler, a replica T-bird from Ford, a replica Morris Mini from BMW, a replica Mustang from Ford, a replica Camaro from Chevy and a replica '49 Carryall from Chevy.
What the world really needs is a replica MG. MG was the car that introduced Americans to European sports cars. It was a cool little two seater, wire wheels, convertible top, four speed on the floor, in red or British Racing Green, decent gas mileage on a four banger engine.
What the world really needs is a replica MG. MG was the car that introduced Americans to European sports cars. It was a cool little two seater, wire wheels, convertible top, four speed on the floor, in red or British Racing Green, decent gas mileage on a four banger engine.
The grass roots are rooting for candidates
North Grafton has been a hotbed of political activity this last week. There was a tea party by the Irving station in Littleton, a meet Ovide Lamontagne event in Franconia, a meet all the candidates event at the Littleton Opera House, and an all candidate lunch at the Gold House. Each event was put on by a different group of volunteers. The amount of political spirit is impressive. Attendance by busy candidates was outstanding.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Using Global Warming to raise taxes
Back a few years ago, New Hampshire joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI for short) along with the rest of New England, Quebec, Ontario, New York and Pennsylvania. RGGI put in a carbon cap and started "selling" licenses to emit CO2 to the utilities. The proceeds from the "sale" would be spent on energy efficiency improvements. I put "sale" in quotes because the utilities had no say in the matter, it was "buy 'em or we shut you down".
Back in January this year, NH budgeted $50 million dollars to "Greenhouse Gas Initiative".
Somewhere between the budget and the legislature, the $50 million from the RGGI fund was diverted to more pressing needs, namely closing the state budget gap. The legislature plead poverty.
Bottom line, the environmentalists used the global warming scare to slip in a new state tax. It was carefully camouflaged, the money comes from your electric bill, so the ill will gets directed to the electric company, rather than the politicians who slipped one over on us.
NPR did a program on this , here. If you listen to the discussion, you will note that the outrage about the diversion of RGGI funds from energy efficiency programs. None of the commenters on the program notes the job killing effects of the RGGI tax. Businesses planning a new plant ALWAYS check the local electric rates. RGGI jacks up NH electric rates and makes the state less attractive to new industry.
Perhaps a Republican state government could repeal the RGGI tax next year.
Back in January this year, NH budgeted $50 million dollars to "Greenhouse Gas Initiative".
Somewhere between the budget and the legislature, the $50 million from the RGGI fund was diverted to more pressing needs, namely closing the state budget gap. The legislature plead poverty.
Bottom line, the environmentalists used the global warming scare to slip in a new state tax. It was carefully camouflaged, the money comes from your electric bill, so the ill will gets directed to the electric company, rather than the politicians who slipped one over on us.
NPR did a program on this , here. If you listen to the discussion, you will note that the outrage about the diversion of RGGI funds from energy efficiency programs. None of the commenters on the program notes the job killing effects of the RGGI tax. Businesses planning a new plant ALWAYS check the local electric rates. RGGI jacks up NH electric rates and makes the state less attractive to new industry.
Perhaps a Republican state government could repeal the RGGI tax next year.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Federal deficit
Just finished watching a union economist on TV spreading dis information about deficit spending. Just to set the record straight, here is what deficit spending really does. To keep the US government checks from bouncing, the treasury sells bonds to Wall St. The buyers give Uncle dollar bills, cash, and Uncle gives the investor a treasury bill, a piece of paper promising to pay back the money in the future. To the buyer, the T-bill he receives is nearly as good as cash. He can keep it, sell it, use it to back loans. Samuelson, (my college economics text) called T-bills "near money". You can use a T-bill for nearly all the things you use money for, and so the buyer of the T-bill feels as wealthy holding the T-bill as he did when holding cash. In short, selling T-bills is just about the same as printing new dollar bills.
We don't like to print too many dollar bills because that causes inflation. For the same reason, we should not be printing so many T-bills, it causes inflation for the same reasons as printing too many dollar bills does.
We don't like to print too many dollar bills because that causes inflation. For the same reason, we should not be printing so many T-bills, it causes inflation for the same reasons as printing too many dollar bills does.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
The joy of driving to Brooklyn
School is starting. Youngest son is ready for his senior year. He had the car packed and ready a day in advance. Trip down was a white knuckle affair. Youngest son speeds, tailgates, and changes lanes so roughly as to set heavily loaded Subaru into scary fishtails. We were ahead of schedule until we hit the bridges of Long Island. The are working on both Throgs Neck and Whitestone bridge at the same time, so no matter which way you go you get stuck in traffic. Then Long Island is the usually traffic snarl, it took an hour to get from the bridges to Brooklyn. The State of New York is competing for the "World's worst traffic signage" award and looks like a sure winner. Sign reads "Eastern Long Island Midtown Tunnel". So which one is it? One is east the other is west, which way does this off ramp go? And they don't bother to post the toll on the bridges, you have to ask the toll taker how much, and then fumble for it. Best part of the trip, we found a parking space right in front of the apartment.
The "micro mile post" madness is taking hold in MA. They have shiny new expensive little signs calling out each 0.1 mile of progress, just like we did on I93. The sign making companies love it, but it doesn't do a thing for us motorists.
The "micro mile post" madness is taking hold in MA. They have shiny new expensive little signs calling out each 0.1 mile of progress, just like we did on I93. The sign making companies love it, but it doesn't do a thing for us motorists.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Is net neutrality ruining my broadband?
Dunno about the rest of you, but broadband service on Time Warner Cable is going down hill for me. Used to be you clicked on a bookmark and bingo, the site opened in Firefox. Now, as often as not, the website fails to open and you draw an error page indicating the site is unavailable. Pain in the ***.
Deteriorating service is either failing equipment or network overload. The TV signal comes thru just fine. The broadband goes over the same wires and amplifiers as the TV signal, so if the TV is clean, the network is OK too. So the trouble as gotta be network overload.
The traditional way of dealing with overloaded networks is to let the important traffic go thru now and send the less important traffic later. In my view, and the view of the ISP's, important traffic is traffic that a live human user is waiting on, and less important traffic is stuff that computer programs are buffering out to disk. Music and video downloads are the classic less important traffic.
But, the purveyors of music and video downloads screamed like wounded panthers and started up the "Net Neutrality" jihad. As of right now, the ISP's are under siege by the jihad and probably are letting the downloads block more important traffic.
Deteriorating service is either failing equipment or network overload. The TV signal comes thru just fine. The broadband goes over the same wires and amplifiers as the TV signal, so if the TV is clean, the network is OK too. So the trouble as gotta be network overload.
The traditional way of dealing with overloaded networks is to let the important traffic go thru now and send the less important traffic later. In my view, and the view of the ISP's, important traffic is traffic that a live human user is waiting on, and less important traffic is stuff that computer programs are buffering out to disk. Music and video downloads are the classic less important traffic.
But, the purveyors of music and video downloads screamed like wounded panthers and started up the "Net Neutrality" jihad. As of right now, the ISP's are under siege by the jihad and probably are letting the downloads block more important traffic.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Katrina, 5th anniversery thereof
Every one (NPR, NBC, WSJ, Fox, you name it) is doing a Katrina story. I watched Brad Pitt showing off new green houses with solar panels in the Lower Ninth Ward. We had pundits complaining of the slowest of the disaster response, community development corporations showing off new construction, finger pointing, and endless talk.
But no talk about the root cause. The root cause wasn't racism, classism, illegal immigration or dreadful public schools. The root cause was the floodwalls broke under the weight of 18 feet of water and let the Gulf flow into the city. Most of New Orleans is below sea level, and once the floodwalls failed the town filled up with water.
Before New Orleans can do much rebuilding, the floodwalls and levees must be fixed. No bank is going to grant a mortgage and no insurance company will offer homeowners insurance to a site that is below sea level, unless there is a strong public commitment by Army Corps of Engineers to defend the site against the next flood. Banks are not keen on mortgages when the collateral for the loan is liable to be destroyed in the next spate of bad weather. Insurance companies are equally reluctant to insure places that are going to generate humongous losses. Banks won't grant mortgages unless the place is insured. Few private citizens can afford to rebuild without a mortgage and insurance. Until the Corps of Engineers makes clear which neighborhoods will get levees and floodwalls, and which ones won't, little private redevelopment is going to occur.
In five years following the disaster the Corps has said nothing.
But no talk about the root cause. The root cause wasn't racism, classism, illegal immigration or dreadful public schools. The root cause was the floodwalls broke under the weight of 18 feet of water and let the Gulf flow into the city. Most of New Orleans is below sea level, and once the floodwalls failed the town filled up with water.
Before New Orleans can do much rebuilding, the floodwalls and levees must be fixed. No bank is going to grant a mortgage and no insurance company will offer homeowners insurance to a site that is below sea level, unless there is a strong public commitment by Army Corps of Engineers to defend the site against the next flood. Banks are not keen on mortgages when the collateral for the loan is liable to be destroyed in the next spate of bad weather. Insurance companies are equally reluctant to insure places that are going to generate humongous losses. Banks won't grant mortgages unless the place is insured. Few private citizens can afford to rebuild without a mortgage and insurance. Until the Corps of Engineers makes clear which neighborhoods will get levees and floodwalls, and which ones won't, little private redevelopment is going to occur.
In five years following the disaster the Corps has said nothing.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
No wonder health care costs are high
Opened all my junk mail this morning. It burns better if you open it before pitching in the fireplace. One piece was pushing hearing aids. It was in-the-ear and had some decent features like background noise cancellation, and feedback squeal reduction. They wanted $1095 for it. They bragged that this was a bargain, comparable units from the competition were going for $2400, they said.
I used to design stuff like this for my day job. I know I could achieve this performance with $100 worth of parts. Using the industry rule of thumb of "four times parts" I could assemble and test and ship something like this for $400 and make money.
I think patients are getting over charged by better than 100% here.
Maybe I should come out of retirement and get into the business.
I used to design stuff like this for my day job. I know I could achieve this performance with $100 worth of parts. Using the industry rule of thumb of "four times parts" I could assemble and test and ship something like this for $400 and make money.
I think patients are getting over charged by better than 100% here.
Maybe I should come out of retirement and get into the business.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thirty percent of BP personnel take the Fifth
Today's Wall St Journal lists ten BP and Transocean executives and workers involved in the Gulf well blowout. At hearings into the disaster, three of them have refused to testify, claiming fifth amendment protections against self incrimination.
It is generally agreed that the well blowout was caused by BP executives Donald Vidrene and Robert Kaluza who decided to ignore instrument indications of a gas leak in the well. Vidrine and Kaluza are two of the three BP men who took the fifth.
Equally as interesting, the Journal cites an internal BP investigation report as their source. Could it be that disgruntled BP employees leaked the report to the Journal?
Also interesting, all the men seemed to have lawyers.
It is generally agreed that the well blowout was caused by BP executives Donald Vidrene and Robert Kaluza who decided to ignore instrument indications of a gas leak in the well. Vidrine and Kaluza are two of the three BP men who took the fifth.
Equally as interesting, the Journal cites an internal BP investigation report as their source. Could it be that disgruntled BP employees leaked the report to the Journal?
Also interesting, all the men seemed to have lawyers.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Slushbox
It's been common knowledge for years that automatic transmissions cost you about 5% on gas mileage compared to a stick shift. T'other day I was reading an internet rant that claimed the "modern" slushbox was in fact just as efficient as manual shift. I beg to differ.
Car transmissions have a simple problem to deal with. When stopped at a light, the wheels must not turn and the engine must turn. Automatic transmissions use a fluid coupling between engine and gears to solve this problem. The engine turns a paddle wheel gizmo in a can of hydraulic fluid and a similar gizmo on the gear shaft gets swirled around and around by the fluid. When stopped at a light, the brakes hold the car stopped, and the fluid just gets churned up. Trouble is, when the car is moving, the fluid coupling or "torque converter" is still there, and there is some slip between the engine in the gears. About 5%, which accounts for the 5% loss of gas mileage.
Some advanced automatic transmissions a have an additional lockup clutch which grabs the two paddlewheel gizmos together when the car is moving and prevents any slippage. Transmissions with a lockup clutch are pretty good, but not all cars have them. For instance Cadillac has a lockup clutch and enjoys significantly better gas mileage than the big Ford/Mercury/Lincoln sedans which don't.
So, when asked what you have done for the environment lately, you can respond by asking them if they drive a stick shift. And when buying a new car, you can mystify the salesman by asking if the car has a transmission lockup clutch. The device will save you 5% on gas mileage over the life of the car, so it's worth a few bucks extra to get one.
Other benefits of the stick shift. It serves as an effective anti theft device. Most kids cannot drive stick any more, so your car is less likely to be stolen if it has a manual trannie. When climbing a snow slick hill in winter you don't have to worry about the trannie deciding to downshift at the wrong time and making the wheels loose traction.
Car transmissions have a simple problem to deal with. When stopped at a light, the wheels must not turn and the engine must turn. Automatic transmissions use a fluid coupling between engine and gears to solve this problem. The engine turns a paddle wheel gizmo in a can of hydraulic fluid and a similar gizmo on the gear shaft gets swirled around and around by the fluid. When stopped at a light, the brakes hold the car stopped, and the fluid just gets churned up. Trouble is, when the car is moving, the fluid coupling or "torque converter" is still there, and there is some slip between the engine in the gears. About 5%, which accounts for the 5% loss of gas mileage.
Some advanced automatic transmissions a have an additional lockup clutch which grabs the two paddlewheel gizmos together when the car is moving and prevents any slippage. Transmissions with a lockup clutch are pretty good, but not all cars have them. For instance Cadillac has a lockup clutch and enjoys significantly better gas mileage than the big Ford/Mercury/Lincoln sedans which don't.
So, when asked what you have done for the environment lately, you can respond by asking them if they drive a stick shift. And when buying a new car, you can mystify the salesman by asking if the car has a transmission lockup clutch. The device will save you 5% on gas mileage over the life of the car, so it's worth a few bucks extra to get one.
Other benefits of the stick shift. It serves as an effective anti theft device. Most kids cannot drive stick any more, so your car is less likely to be stolen if it has a manual trannie. When climbing a snow slick hill in winter you don't have to worry about the trannie deciding to downshift at the wrong time and making the wheels loose traction.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Copyright
Or, why downloading should be legal. Copyright is so important that the US Constitution has a special clause about it.
"To promote the Progress of Science and the useful Arts by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;"
Subsequent acts of Congress and judicial decisions have broadened this clause significantly. Copyright now is applied to music, even though music is neither a science nor a useful art. Art it is, but it isn't a useful art. Beautiful, pleasant, desirable, but not useful in the 18th century meaning of the word.
An act of Congress could end the current hassling of young folk by the record labels, by simply saying that recorded music is in the public domain at all times. The record companies would scream and cry and threaten to hold their breath, but they have been loosing sales for years. The musicians would support themselves off concert tickets, which is what they do now anyway, royalties from the record labels being few and far between. Enormous numbers of young folk would be overjoyed. A really clever Republican party would take up this issue. Young people vote in much greater numbers than the record labels do.
"To promote the Progress of Science and the useful Arts by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;"
Subsequent acts of Congress and judicial decisions have broadened this clause significantly. Copyright now is applied to music, even though music is neither a science nor a useful art. Art it is, but it isn't a useful art. Beautiful, pleasant, desirable, but not useful in the 18th century meaning of the word.
An act of Congress could end the current hassling of young folk by the record labels, by simply saying that recorded music is in the public domain at all times. The record companies would scream and cry and threaten to hold their breath, but they have been loosing sales for years. The musicians would support themselves off concert tickets, which is what they do now anyway, royalties from the record labels being few and far between. Enormous numbers of young folk would be overjoyed. A really clever Republican party would take up this issue. Young people vote in much greater numbers than the record labels do.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Blago vs the prosecutors
Looks like Blago wins. The prosecutor ought be fired. If you bring a high profile case, it better be a sound one. First mistake was to charge Blago with 24 different offenses. Nobody has the time to commit that many crimes. Blago, unlikable as he is, may have done a couple of things, like offer Obama's old senate seat to the highest bidder, but he didn't have the time, or the smarts, to commit 24 separate offenses. Then, the one charge the jury convicted on, isn't really a crime in my book. Lying to police may be an undesirable character trait, but he wasn't under oath, and any fool knows that anything you say to the cops will be used against you in court. So, nobody in their right mind is going to tell the cops "I did it". Plus, in this case, the jury doesn't think Blago did it, so Blago wasn't lying when it told the cops he didn't do it.
Wanta bet the government tries again? Despite the constitutional prohibition of double jeopardy. " Nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb,"
Wanta bet the government tries again? Despite the constitutional prohibition of double jeopardy. " Nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb,"
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Barney Frank wants to replace Fannie and Freddie
This off the Fox News crawl. I'm agin it. Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac are largely responsible for causing Great Depression 2.0. They should be disbanded, and their management prosecuted.
Barney claims the new organization would subsidize the housing market. I say we should stop subsidies to housing. Housing doesn't need subsidy, other wise known as giving taxpayer money to builders, realtors, home owners, and banks.
Home mortgages are attractive investments just as they are. The loan is secured by real property which the lender can seize if the borrow doesn't make his payments. The collateral is fixed and immobile, the lender cannot drive it out of state. The borrower is highly motivated to keep up the payments, if only to avoid harsh criticism by his spouse when the the couple is evicted.
If the lender makes a realistic appraisal of the property value, and insists that the borrower put up 10 or 20 percent of the value in cash, and the borrower isn't spending more than 25% of his income on payments, the loan is highly likely to get repaid. They used to say "safe as houses" to describe a secure investment. Banks can do very well loaning on mortgages at 6 percent and paying depositors 3 percent, keeping the spread between loan rates and depositors interest rates.
Home mortgages used to work that way. First house I ever bought, back in the '70s the bank loan officer interviewed me and the wife, and then went to the property and appraised it himself. No mortgage broker and the bank loaned its own money, not Fannie's, and held the note til we sold the house.
Barney claims the new organization would subsidize the housing market. I say we should stop subsidies to housing. Housing doesn't need subsidy, other wise known as giving taxpayer money to builders, realtors, home owners, and banks.
Home mortgages are attractive investments just as they are. The loan is secured by real property which the lender can seize if the borrow doesn't make his payments. The collateral is fixed and immobile, the lender cannot drive it out of state. The borrower is highly motivated to keep up the payments, if only to avoid harsh criticism by his spouse when the the couple is evicted.
If the lender makes a realistic appraisal of the property value, and insists that the borrower put up 10 or 20 percent of the value in cash, and the borrower isn't spending more than 25% of his income on payments, the loan is highly likely to get repaid. They used to say "safe as houses" to describe a secure investment. Banks can do very well loaning on mortgages at 6 percent and paying depositors 3 percent, keeping the spread between loan rates and depositors interest rates.
Home mortgages used to work that way. First house I ever bought, back in the '70s the bank loan officer interviewed me and the wife, and then went to the property and appraised it himself. No mortgage broker and the bank loaned its own money, not Fannie's, and held the note til we sold the house.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Environmental Impact Statements on new wells
In an effort to slow down oil drilling, the Obama administration will require a full environmental impact statement to be filed for each new well drilled. Work cannot start until the paperwork is finished. Of course we all know what the environmental impact of an oil well blowout is, it's horrendous. Ixtoc I, and BP have made that abundantly clear. We don't need paperwork to inform us of that. But if we make the paperwork burden heavy enough maybe those pesky oil companies will stop drilling. We can all freeze to death in the dark rather than risk an oil spill.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
How to loose WWII
The Germans lost by frittering away their industrial capacity building too many different types of weapons. Both Heinz Guderian and Albert Speer complained about this in their post war memoirs. I have a lovely coffee table book of the German air force listing every aircraft they developed. During WWII the germans developed 143 different warplanes, of which a whopping big 58 went into production. The other 85 designs went no farther than prototypes.
In contrast, the highly organized US Army Air Force numbered all it's designs. Over all of WWII, USAAF sponsored a mere 67 designs, of which only 14 went into production. Estimating that the less organized US Navy, which did not number it's designs, added perhaps another 50% to both numbers, we have maybe 100 American designs, with a mere 21 going into production. In short, the Americans out produced the Germans by concentrating on building a few, but superior, types of aircraft.
Plain old capitalism was more effective at marshaling the nation's industrial power than National Socialism was.
In contrast, the highly organized US Army Air Force numbered all it's designs. Over all of WWII, USAAF sponsored a mere 67 designs, of which only 14 went into production. Estimating that the less organized US Navy, which did not number it's designs, added perhaps another 50% to both numbers, we have maybe 100 American designs, with a mere 21 going into production. In short, the Americans out produced the Germans by concentrating on building a few, but superior, types of aircraft.
Plain old capitalism was more effective at marshaling the nation's industrial power than National Socialism was.
NPR discovers yet another problem.
Listening to NPR on the clock radio this morning. They did a long piece on the need for new regulations of chemicals. They never did get around to discussing the problem[s] with chemicals, but they had a solution. Companies would be required to submit massive paperwork on every chemical made or used. Poorly educated bureaucrats would be given authority to ban just about anything they pleased, when ever they pleased.
Sounds like another bit of economic stimulus :-)
Sounds like another bit of economic stimulus :-)
Swett Equity
Watching Katrina Swett, Democratic candidate for US house on channel 9. She just said "Give the middle class a $150 tax rebate and they will go out and spend it".
That happens not to be the case. Middle class citizens are frightened of losing their jobs. Give 'em $150 and they will save it or pay down bills with it. They ain't gonna buy anything except groceries until they feel secure in their jobs.
That happens not to be the case. Middle class citizens are frightened of losing their jobs. Give 'em $150 and they will save it or pay down bills with it. They ain't gonna buy anything except groceries until they feel secure in their jobs.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Gene Makes Superbugs Resistant to Drugs
So reads the headline on a Wall St Journal Story. It quotes "Lancet Infectious Diseases" who says that a new gene dubbed NDM-1 gives bacteria the ability to produce a chemical that protects them against most antibiotics. The new strain of bacteria was found in 180 cases in India and Pakistan, and in a few British citizens who had had surgery in India. Three cases have appeared in the US, all from people who had medical treatment in India.
So another superbug joins Methicillin Resistant Staphlococcus Aureus (MRSA). Medical authorities blame excessive use of antibiotics for the rise of antibiotic resistant germs. So long as we feed antibiotics to farm animals to make them grow faster, we are going to have resistant bacteria cropping up.
Since antibiotics cure patients, the drug companies are not interested in creating new ones. After a few doses, the patient recovers. Drug companies like expensive drugs that don't actually cure anything so the patient keeps buying more of them.
So another superbug joins Methicillin Resistant Staphlococcus Aureus (MRSA). Medical authorities blame excessive use of antibiotics for the rise of antibiotic resistant germs. So long as we feed antibiotics to farm animals to make them grow faster, we are going to have resistant bacteria cropping up.
Since antibiotics cure patients, the drug companies are not interested in creating new ones. After a few doses, the patient recovers. Drug companies like expensive drugs that don't actually cure anything so the patient keeps buying more of them.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
To Big to Fail oughta meet Anti Trust
Great Depression 2.0, still ongoing, was triggered by foolish actions by a handful of big Wall Street operations. When a brain dead executive has control of massive amounts of cash, he can do a lot more damage than a similar executive at a smaller firm. When big outfits like Fannie Mae or AIG go belly up, Uncle Sam bails them out lest their failure throw the economy into a tail spin. This time Uncle spent carloads of cash bailing them out and the economy still tanked. Effective use of taxpayer funds that.
And, when us customers are shopping, we get a better deal if we have a lot competing companies to buy from. If a super biggie is the only game in town, we are going to get robbed.
So, for all these reasons, super big companies are a bad idea. We used to have a Sherman Anti Trust Act, enforced by the US justice department. Back in the good old days they broke up Standard Oil and the telephone company, and tried to break up IBM. Used to be, the Anti Trust division of Justice could put the kibosh on mergers if they deemed the merged company would be too big.
Far as I know, Sherman Anti Trust Act is still on the books, but the Justice department hasn't enforced it for 20 years or more. Which is why we have AIG and Microsoft out crashing the economy and abusing customers.
Let's bring back the Anti Trust lawyers and sic 'em on any company that controls more than 50% of any market.
And, when us customers are shopping, we get a better deal if we have a lot competing companies to buy from. If a super biggie is the only game in town, we are going to get robbed.
So, for all these reasons, super big companies are a bad idea. We used to have a Sherman Anti Trust Act, enforced by the US justice department. Back in the good old days they broke up Standard Oil and the telephone company, and tried to break up IBM. Used to be, the Anti Trust division of Justice could put the kibosh on mergers if they deemed the merged company would be too big.
Far as I know, Sherman Anti Trust Act is still on the books, but the Justice department hasn't enforced it for 20 years or more. Which is why we have AIG and Microsoft out crashing the economy and abusing customers.
Let's bring back the Anti Trust lawyers and sic 'em on any company that controls more than 50% of any market.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Russians bid on the USAF tanker replacement
This is a little hard to believe, but according to Aviation Week, Antonov, the Russian airliner builder, is submitting their AN-70 jetliner for the KC-X tanker competition. The Air Force is hassling Antonov about timely bid submission. Bids were due at 2:00 PM, 9 July at Wright Patterson AFB. Antonov's bid got there but was stamped with a 2:05 PM arrival time, five minutes late. The Air Force is attempting to throw out the Antonov bid on this technicality.
I wish the Air Force luck. They have been bungling this needed tanker acquisition for nearly 10 years now. No matter how they play it, they will get sued on this one. Antonov will sue if their bid is rejected, Boeing and Airbus will sue if it is considered.
The thought of USAF flying Russian built aircraft boggles the mind.
I wish the Air Force luck. They have been bungling this needed tanker acquisition for nearly 10 years now. No matter how they play it, they will get sued on this one. Antonov will sue if their bid is rejected, Boeing and Airbus will sue if it is considered.
The thought of USAF flying Russian built aircraft boggles the mind.
Immigration Reform
Service in the US armed forces ought to grant US citizenship. Anyone who serves a hitch, especially in wartime, and especially a hitch in a combat zone, is a plenty good enough citizen for me. An honorable discharge ought to be good for the soldier, and his wife and kids to become citizens.
Why? The armed services attract the very best people. And they are loyal to the country. The men I served with in the US Air Force were all the best people you could ever want to see. Far as this veteran can tell, the current crop of service men is every bit as good. We strengthen the United States by admitting people like that to citizenship.
Why? The armed services attract the very best people. And they are loyal to the country. The men I served with in the US Air Force were all the best people you could ever want to see. Far as this veteran can tell, the current crop of service men is every bit as good. We strengthen the United States by admitting people like that to citizenship.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Oil Floats
Not to deny that the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a terrible disaster. But, all this talk about "underwater plumes of oil" sounds suspicious to me. Oil floats on water, and I expect underwater oil to float to the surface in a day or two. I think we have enough real oil damage that we can fore go inventing imaginary damage.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Home Hobby Shop overkill
I have an aging favorite chef's knife, of the sort with wood handgrips secured with brass rivets. Over 40 odd years of dishwashering the wood had crumbled and was held in place with tape. To replace the simple wood handgrips seemed as easy job.
But it gets complicated. I special ordered the brass rivets from Lee Valley, $8 a pack. Right there I'm behind the power curve, the knife only cost $3.50 back in 1966. I needed the services of my radial arm saw, my jointer, my bandsaw, my drillpress, and my pad sander by the time the job was done. A lot of power tools to shape a couple of three inch long bits of poplar. Dunno how those colonial cabinet makers turned out high boys with nothing but hand tools.
But the rehandled knife looks fine.
But it gets complicated. I special ordered the brass rivets from Lee Valley, $8 a pack. Right there I'm behind the power curve, the knife only cost $3.50 back in 1966. I needed the services of my radial arm saw, my jointer, my bandsaw, my drillpress, and my pad sander by the time the job was done. A lot of power tools to shape a couple of three inch long bits of poplar. Dunno how those colonial cabinet makers turned out high boys with nothing but hand tools.
But the rehandled knife looks fine.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
What is the purpose of NASA today?
NASA was created to get Americans into space, and then to the Moon. It succeeded brilliantly in those two missions. Then it became the Shuttle operator and science investigator, launching planetary probes and Hubble space telescope. Now that the shuttle is going away, what is NASA supposed to be doing?
How about building and launching a bigger and better space telescope? Hubble is 20 years old. Sooner or later it's going to die. And with the Shuttle gone, we won't be able to fix it. With 20 years of technical progress we should be able to build a bigger and better one. Right now NASA is getting $19 billion a year of taxpayer money. I'd kinda like that money to get us something worthwhile rather than just paying a bunch of salaries.
A new Space Telescope is easily fundable. A manned mission to Mars is not. Back of the envelope calculations show a Mars trip would cost $1 trillion and up. That's more than the US defense budget and is politically impossible. A lot of voters think we need a space program, but few of them are willing to pay for that size of space program. More do able, would be setting up a manned Moon base, a worthy goal, but when you consider the success of Hubble, I think a bigger and better Hubble follow on would be just as successful, giving us a view of the entire universe, where as a Moon base would only be able to do Lunar geology and seismology. Seeing back to the Big Bang is more exciting than categorizing Lunar rocks. Cheaper too.
How about building and launching a bigger and better space telescope? Hubble is 20 years old. Sooner or later it's going to die. And with the Shuttle gone, we won't be able to fix it. With 20 years of technical progress we should be able to build a bigger and better one. Right now NASA is getting $19 billion a year of taxpayer money. I'd kinda like that money to get us something worthwhile rather than just paying a bunch of salaries.
A new Space Telescope is easily fundable. A manned mission to Mars is not. Back of the envelope calculations show a Mars trip would cost $1 trillion and up. That's more than the US defense budget and is politically impossible. A lot of voters think we need a space program, but few of them are willing to pay for that size of space program. More do able, would be setting up a manned Moon base, a worthy goal, but when you consider the success of Hubble, I think a bigger and better Hubble follow on would be just as successful, giving us a view of the entire universe, where as a Moon base would only be able to do Lunar geology and seismology. Seeing back to the Big Bang is more exciting than categorizing Lunar rocks. Cheaper too.
This economy doesn't stimulate
Great Depression 2.0, which we are in now, is a vicious circle, consumers are not consuming so producers aren't producing and laying off workers. The laid off workers consume even less.
Economics, especially the branch invented by Lord Keynes during the first Great Depression, says that the way out of the vicious circle is for the government to "create demand" which causes the producers to produce and hire people. The gigantic demand created by WWII is what ended the first great depression. The government purchased humongous quantities of every sort of war supply, everything from bunk beds to B-17's, as well as enlisted 10 million men in the armed forces. The producers, as soon as a government order was in hand, turned the money right around by ordering parts to fill that order. That's stimulation.
Obama's "stimulus" bill does nothing of the kind. The $800 billion was given to state governments who used the money to meet payroll and avoid layoffs of public employees. A lot of teachers, bureaucrats, and public safety workers are very happy about that but that doesn't help the economy much. The money should have been spend buying goods or constructing things, but it wasn't, mostly because politicians deem it more important to keep the public employees happy and reap their votes in the next election.
Economics, especially the branch invented by Lord Keynes during the first Great Depression, says that the way out of the vicious circle is for the government to "create demand" which causes the producers to produce and hire people. The gigantic demand created by WWII is what ended the first great depression. The government purchased humongous quantities of every sort of war supply, everything from bunk beds to B-17's, as well as enlisted 10 million men in the armed forces. The producers, as soon as a government order was in hand, turned the money right around by ordering parts to fill that order. That's stimulation.
Obama's "stimulus" bill does nothing of the kind. The $800 billion was given to state governments who used the money to meet payroll and avoid layoffs of public employees. A lot of teachers, bureaucrats, and public safety workers are very happy about that but that doesn't help the economy much. The money should have been spend buying goods or constructing things, but it wasn't, mostly because politicians deem it more important to keep the public employees happy and reap their votes in the next election.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Words of the Weasel Part 14
"Certification" as in "One of the failures is the lack of a certified technology that can be used to perform intricate inspections of palletized freight and cargo in unit loading devices used by the widebody aircraft that do most of the international flying."
This from an Aviation Week editorial in the August 2 edition.
I'm not sure what universe the editorial writers are living in. To obtain a cargo inspection system, you write a specification and then go out for bids to build them. Then you test the first article delivered to make sure it works in accordance with specifications. As long as you have money to pay the contractor, you have working equipment. If you don't have the money, you don't get the equipment, working or non working.
The specification might be a little difficult to write. You want to detect the smallest bomb buried deep in the densest and most opaque cargo imaginable. You probably have to call for construction of a test cargo pallet with simulated test bomb and require the machine to detect the test bomb some percentage of the time (90%, 99%, 99.9% and so on). Once the delivered machine meets spec, the contractor gets paid.
I don't know what the "certification of technology" phase means. Presumably the certification would read "Cargo inspection machines using Xray/Ultrasound/Microwave/YourFavoriteScienceFictionTechnology meet TSA requirements." Or words to that effect.
Except I don't believe in certifications. The only thing I believe is actual test results on real hardware. Which means you have to build the real hardware before you can test it. Which takes money.
What is really going on? Dunno, but it might be that nobody wants to pay real money to buy cargo inspection machines and fingers are being pointed to divert attention from the lack of money. Perhaps the Obama Porkulus bill could pay for them?
This from an Aviation Week editorial in the August 2 edition.
I'm not sure what universe the editorial writers are living in. To obtain a cargo inspection system, you write a specification and then go out for bids to build them. Then you test the first article delivered to make sure it works in accordance with specifications. As long as you have money to pay the contractor, you have working equipment. If you don't have the money, you don't get the equipment, working or non working.
The specification might be a little difficult to write. You want to detect the smallest bomb buried deep in the densest and most opaque cargo imaginable. You probably have to call for construction of a test cargo pallet with simulated test bomb and require the machine to detect the test bomb some percentage of the time (90%, 99%, 99.9% and so on). Once the delivered machine meets spec, the contractor gets paid.
I don't know what the "certification of technology" phase means. Presumably the certification would read "Cargo inspection machines using Xray/Ultrasound/Microwave/YourFavoriteScienceFictionTechnology meet TSA requirements." Or words to that effect.
Except I don't believe in certifications. The only thing I believe is actual test results on real hardware. Which means you have to build the real hardware before you can test it. Which takes money.
What is really going on? Dunno, but it might be that nobody wants to pay real money to buy cargo inspection machines and fingers are being pointed to divert attention from the lack of money. Perhaps the Obama Porkulus bill could pay for them?
Day of Battle, by Rick Atkinson
Just finished this mammoth book on the WWII Italian campaign by the author of "An Army at Dawn". It's a good read, covering the ins and outs of a costly campaign of 65 years ago. It's not as much fun as his first book because it describes a very costly operation that took many lives for questionable gain. We never tied down as many German soldiers in Italy as we employed our own troops in fighting them. We did knock Italy out of the war, but that isn't saying much, the Italians never contributed all that much to the Axis war effort. Churchill's "soft underbelly" was mountainous, cut be deep and fast flowing rivers and the sort of country where a few riflemen could stand off an entire army.
According to Atkinson, the real reason we fought in Italy is it was the only place we could fight the Germans until we built up the strength for Overlord. When WWII is raging, you have to keep fighting the enemy, and Italy was the only place we could do so.
Atkinson covers all the fighting, the wheeling and dealing, the personalities of the generals, the scandals and the rest of it. Enjoy.
According to Atkinson, the real reason we fought in Italy is it was the only place we could fight the Germans until we built up the strength for Overlord. When WWII is raging, you have to keep fighting the enemy, and Italy was the only place we could do so.
Atkinson covers all the fighting, the wheeling and dealing, the personalities of the generals, the scandals and the rest of it. Enjoy.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Nanny State Alive and well in Oregon
A seven year old was busted for running a lemonade stand. State health inspectors felt the lemonade stand was a serious risk to public health. Let's hope New Hampshire never sinks this low.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Electric Smart Grid is hackable
Simmering along under the radar is the "Smart Grid" plan. At bottom "Smart Grid" would let the power company turn off your water heater and air conditioner when they are running out of electricity. The electric companies have to build enough power plants to meet peak load (warm summer afternoon or cold winter evening) but these expensive plants sit idle, earning no revenue, during most of the day. If PSNH could switch of customers air conditioners on hot summer afternoons they would not have to build so many power plants. They save money, we customers can no longer count on electric appliances working when we need them.
To add smart to the grid, electric meters and major appliances are connected to the internet to accept orders from PSNH. Major weakness, Internet hackers can fake out anything connected to the internet, with the result that your appliances can be switched off anytime someone else wants to. Not good.
To add smart to the grid, electric meters and major appliances are connected to the internet to accept orders from PSNH. Major weakness, Internet hackers can fake out anything connected to the internet, with the result that your appliances can be switched off anytime someone else wants to. Not good.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Good article on US Pakistani relations
I saw this on Instapundit. I've traveled in Pakistan and this article sounds about right to me. One thing the author omits. The Pakistanis I met and talked with were VERY interested in obtaining American support for /alliance with Pakistan against India, China, Al Quada and the various other bogymen out there. They all had problems with various aspects of US policy, but they all saw the US as powerful, reasonably benevolent, essential, and a great place to live.
There are a few things to remember about Pakistan. It's big, 160 million people. About 20 million live in and around Karachi, do manufacturing and trading, have radio and TV and read newspapers. The rest of them, 140 million, are tenant farmers, scratching out a crop with hand tools. No radio, TV, newspapers, many are illiterate. But they are not stupid. When their landlord runs for public office, they know to vote for him lest something bad happen to them. So the majority of Pakistan's elected parliment is landlords, with little sense of responsibility to the general welfare of Pakistan. Every 15 years or so the corruption of the parliament gets so bad that the Pakistani Army steps in to clean things up. After some time goes by, the army will relinquish control to the elected civilian leadership. Pakistan is in that phase right now. They have gone thru this cycle two or three times in the 60 years since Pakistan became Pakistan. They will probable keep on doing it. The Pakistani Army is highly respected and enjoys as much or more confidence among the population as any Pakistani politician.
There are a few things to remember about Pakistan. It's big, 160 million people. About 20 million live in and around Karachi, do manufacturing and trading, have radio and TV and read newspapers. The rest of them, 140 million, are tenant farmers, scratching out a crop with hand tools. No radio, TV, newspapers, many are illiterate. But they are not stupid. When their landlord runs for public office, they know to vote for him lest something bad happen to them. So the majority of Pakistan's elected parliment is landlords, with little sense of responsibility to the general welfare of Pakistan. Every 15 years or so the corruption of the parliament gets so bad that the Pakistani Army steps in to clean things up. After some time goes by, the army will relinquish control to the elected civilian leadership. Pakistan is in that phase right now. They have gone thru this cycle two or three times in the 60 years since Pakistan became Pakistan. They will probable keep on doing it. The Pakistani Army is highly respected and enjoys as much or more confidence among the population as any Pakistani politician.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Spruce up your blog
>Spruce Up Your Blog
>Choose from thousands of Widgetbox widgets to add to your blog. Slideshows, Twitter, >Polls, Countdowns and more.
>Try it now
So it says on my blogger dashboard. Question. Does anyone know just what these spruce ups do, other than clutter up the page? How many of them slow down access to your blog?
>Choose from thousands of Widgetbox widgets to add to your blog. Slideshows, Twitter, >Polls, Countdowns and more.
>Try it now
So it says on my blogger dashboard. Question. Does anyone know just what these spruce ups do, other than clutter up the page? How many of them slow down access to your blog?
Why is the US economy still on the rocks?
70% of the US economy was consumer spending. Cars and groceries and clothes and appliances, restaurant meals, amusement park tickets, home renovations, boats and RV's, sporting goods. Trouble is, buying this stuff can be postponed. You can always squeeze another year out of the old car, wear old clothes a little longer, do without a new flatscreen as long as the old CRT still works.
Today, any consumer with two brain cells firing has to be worried about losing his/her job. With that hanging over them, the rational reaction is save money and don't buy everything except groceries. So consumer spending is down, a lot. And will stay down until the consumers feel a little safer in their jobs. With 70% of the economy on vacation, demand is down, and manufacturers are not hiring. Which makes people fear for their jobs all the more. It's a vicious circle. The last time this happened, it took World War II to snap us out of it. Nobody wants to do World War III just to restore full employment in the US.
Just watched Meet the Press, with Allan Greenspan, Mayor Bloomberg, Ed Rendel, and some others. No one mentioned this, not even Greenspan who used to be a pretty sharp Fed chairman.
We are in trouble until our leadership figures out what makes the US economy tick.
Today, any consumer with two brain cells firing has to be worried about losing his/her job. With that hanging over them, the rational reaction is save money and don't buy everything except groceries. So consumer spending is down, a lot. And will stay down until the consumers feel a little safer in their jobs. With 70% of the economy on vacation, demand is down, and manufacturers are not hiring. Which makes people fear for their jobs all the more. It's a vicious circle. The last time this happened, it took World War II to snap us out of it. Nobody wants to do World War III just to restore full employment in the US.
Just watched Meet the Press, with Allan Greenspan, Mayor Bloomberg, Ed Rendel, and some others. No one mentioned this, not even Greenspan who used to be a pretty sharp Fed chairman.
We are in trouble until our leadership figures out what makes the US economy tick.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Wikileaks and leakers
Wikileaks has posted an incredible amount of classified reports from Afghanistan. This mass of stuff reveals names and home villages of interpreters, and much demoralizing information about Afghan allies which hurts the US cause and aids the Taliban. There have been loud calls to censor Wikileaks.
Actually we ought to focus on the leaker. Who is it that got their hands on 90,000 secret documents ? Did he have a clearance? How could any one individual have a need to know that many things. Did he/she take advantage of the gaping loopholes in Windows security to make his haul? Were the computers holding this mass of classified properly secured? Like no connection to the public internet, autorun disabled, Long and strong passwords changed every 60 days, virus protection up to date, removable media devices (CD, floppy, thumbdrive) removed.
Actually we ought to focus on the leaker. Who is it that got their hands on 90,000 secret documents ? Did he have a clearance? How could any one individual have a need to know that many things. Did he/she take advantage of the gaping loopholes in Windows security to make his haul? Were the computers holding this mass of classified properly secured? Like no connection to the public internet, autorun disabled, Long and strong passwords changed every 60 days, virus protection up to date, removable media devices (CD, floppy, thumbdrive) removed.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Whither NASA?
Or, how to get men into space. NASA wanted to scrap the Space Shuttle and build a new booster and space capsule, kind of an enlarged Gemini system. Reason, the shuttle is expensive and dangerous and old. The new booster (Aries) was going to be able to loft as much weight as the Shuttle, about 24,000 kilograms or 24 metric tons. The NASA people were all kinds of enthusiastic about doing a new rocket design, and they pushed ahead as fast as possible and actually flew the first prototype before the Obama administration cut off the funding.
NASA should have simply bought either the Atlas V or the Delta IV boosters from SpaceX. These boosters have been launching communications satellites for years and have as much lift capacity as Aries or the Shuttle. NASA kept saying that Atlas and Delta were not "man rated" and thus unacceptable and dangerous. This was a smokescreen intended to let NASA have the fun of doing a new design, in house. "Man rating" is a paperwork exercise to document every single part that goes into the rocket on the idea that after doing a load of paperwork, the part wouldn't dare fail.
Now the Congress is getting into the act. Their plan is to keep the Shuttle flying and avoid laying off the 10,000 man Shuttle workforce. Which was the major reason for ending the shuttle program, all those bodies cost a lot of money. Senator Bill Nelson, D-FLa. is spearheading that effort.
Then, scenting a chance at a contract, Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne is proposing a pair of new booster designs, one using LOX and liquid hydrogen, the other using LOX and kerosene (jet fuel).
So what is really going down? Probably a struggle between the cost savers who want to reduce NASA to a tourist attraction at Cape Canaveral, and pork processors who want to keep the massive shuttle workforce on the payroll.
NASA should have simply bought either the Atlas V or the Delta IV boosters from SpaceX. These boosters have been launching communications satellites for years and have as much lift capacity as Aries or the Shuttle. NASA kept saying that Atlas and Delta were not "man rated" and thus unacceptable and dangerous. This was a smokescreen intended to let NASA have the fun of doing a new design, in house. "Man rating" is a paperwork exercise to document every single part that goes into the rocket on the idea that after doing a load of paperwork, the part wouldn't dare fail.
Now the Congress is getting into the act. Their plan is to keep the Shuttle flying and avoid laying off the 10,000 man Shuttle workforce. Which was the major reason for ending the shuttle program, all those bodies cost a lot of money. Senator Bill Nelson, D-FLa. is spearheading that effort.
Then, scenting a chance at a contract, Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne is proposing a pair of new booster designs, one using LOX and liquid hydrogen, the other using LOX and kerosene (jet fuel).
So what is really going down? Probably a struggle between the cost savers who want to reduce NASA to a tourist attraction at Cape Canaveral, and pork processors who want to keep the massive shuttle workforce on the payroll.
Chevy Aveo roadtest
So I selected "economy" as the renta car type, and sure enough, I get a Chevy Aveo sedan (not the hatchback). Drove it for a week. A singularly unimpressive little econobox. Not that there is anything truly wrong with it, it seats four grownups and has a trunk big enough to take four "fit-in-airline-overhead-rack" bags. The radio and the air conditioner work.
On the down side, the styling is somewhere between utilitarian and downright ugly. It's tall, and feels tippy on the highway. The engine is puny and loud. Gas mileage was 27 in mixed thruway city driving. My Caddy Deville used to get 27 on the highway, the old VW Beetle would do 30, and a Subaru will do 32. Seems a shame not to get world class gas mileage in return for giving up size and comfort. In daylight it is difficult to impossible to tell what gear it's in. After dark the tranny shifter is illuminated and you can see whether you are in R for reverse or D for Drive, but in daylight, forget it.
Upon return, my Mercury Grand Marquis felt so quiet and so comfortable after a week in the cramped and noisy Aveo.
Chevy is asking $12K base for this thing and $15K with options. For less money than that you can get a much nicer used car.
On the down side, the styling is somewhere between utilitarian and downright ugly. It's tall, and feels tippy on the highway. The engine is puny and loud. Gas mileage was 27 in mixed thruway city driving. My Caddy Deville used to get 27 on the highway, the old VW Beetle would do 30, and a Subaru will do 32. Seems a shame not to get world class gas mileage in return for giving up size and comfort. In daylight it is difficult to impossible to tell what gear it's in. After dark the tranny shifter is illuminated and you can see whether you are in R for reverse or D for Drive, but in daylight, forget it.
Upon return, my Mercury Grand Marquis felt so quiet and so comfortable after a week in the cramped and noisy Aveo.
Chevy is asking $12K base for this thing and $15K with options. For less money than that you can get a much nicer used car.
Monday, July 26, 2010
If you have time to spare, go by air....
Just returned from a flight to Seattle. The pleasure started at check in where the TSA is waging war on men's toiletries. They objected to toothpaste, aftershave, and shaving cream. Lethal they are. Bring down the whole plane with a can of Barbasol. And they still make you take off your shoes and Xray them.
Once on board, less those dangerous toiletries, we find the airlines have been studying up on cattle cars. Seat pitch is down to 27 inches. Load factor was up to 100% on all four legs of the trip. There was a time when the planes flew with 60% load factors. Not any more. And the middle seat is still crowded. And the seats are hard and lumpy, especially after flying across the continent. They don't serve food anymore, and they whine if you bring your own. United, once a major carrier, is now specializing in puddle jumpers rented from no name carriers and painted in United colors. And they don't fly non stop. Any trip requires a stop and a plane change and a wait in the middle of the country. And the airports are so big you have to ride a subway to get from gate to gate. I love schlepping my bags onto the subway. And the air[ort prices. Beer is $6 a glass. I can get a whole six pack for less at Mac's Market.
I'll drive for anything less than a clean across the country trip, just to avoid the hassle and the discomfort. And I don't travel less it's absolutely necessary any more. Travel used to be a leisure time activity, now it's just painful.
Once on board, less those dangerous toiletries, we find the airlines have been studying up on cattle cars. Seat pitch is down to 27 inches. Load factor was up to 100% on all four legs of the trip. There was a time when the planes flew with 60% load factors. Not any more. And the middle seat is still crowded. And the seats are hard and lumpy, especially after flying across the continent. They don't serve food anymore, and they whine if you bring your own. United, once a major carrier, is now specializing in puddle jumpers rented from no name carriers and painted in United colors. And they don't fly non stop. Any trip requires a stop and a plane change and a wait in the middle of the country. And the airports are so big you have to ride a subway to get from gate to gate. I love schlepping my bags onto the subway. And the air[ort prices. Beer is $6 a glass. I can get a whole six pack for less at Mac's Market.
I'll drive for anything less than a clean across the country trip, just to avoid the hassle and the discomfort. And I don't travel less it's absolutely necessary any more. Travel used to be a leisure time activity, now it's just painful.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Blogging may be light
I am flying out to Seattle tomorrow morning and won't be back until Monday. I may or may not have Internet access out on the left coast, so blogging may be light to non existent for this week.
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