Thursday, March 1, 2018

Interest rates going up against the Stock Market

Gospel at the Wall St Journal (and probably the other business publications too) is that raising interest rates hurts the stock market and falling interest rates help the stock market.  The Journal is the only business publication I read, so I don't really know if the rest of the business press follows the Journal's gospel, but it's a good bet that they do. 
   Why this link between market performance and interest rates?  Could it be that a lot of stock is bought for speculation, and on borrowed money?  Margin accounts with brokerages, where the stock broker loans the investor/speculator the money to buy the stock, and the investor/speculator pledges the stock as collateral to back the loan.
  Is this a good thing?  Margin accounts can really slam the market hard.  When the market goes down, like it did this month, the value of the stock pledged as collateral goes down.  And the broker calls the investor/speculator and asks for more money to back the loan.  A margin call.  The only way most investor/speculators have to raise the money is to sell the stock, which drives the market down further.
    The social good that the stock market performs is to make stocks into a very liquid asset.  I can buy stock with my extra cash, knowing that when I need the money for something, I can sell the stock, quickly.  Without the stock market, should I need to turn my stock into cash, it might take months to find someone who wants to buy my stock. And without the market doing deals and publishing the stock price, I would be hard pressed to get a decent price for my stock.  I might decide not to put my money into stocks, but rather such economy boosting assets as antiques, artworks, classic cars, coins, stamps, cyber currency, or betting on sports.  
   The social purpose of the joint stock company is to channel investor money into companies that use the money to build factories, build railroads, buy equipment, and grow the economy.   If the investor's money is just a loan, then the investor is sucking up loan money that could just as well be borrowed from banks by the company itself, rather than  giving the investor a cut.
    The stock market has a lot of gambling built into it.  Do margin accounts, and borrowing to buy stock make it easier for companies to raise money, or do they just support the gambling part of the market?  If we forbid borrowing to buy stock, would the market be steadier and more predictable?  
 

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