Federal Government Shutdown? How bad? How likely?

 Last time, some years ago, don't remember just how many years, it wasn't all that bad for us just plain citizens.  Post office kept on delivering the mail.  The armed forces got paid. Air traffic control stayed on duty.  A fair number of bureaucrats got laid off for a couple of weeks.  I think that eventually got paid for the time they were out.  IRS workers got laid off, but that was no loss from my point of view, I wasn't expecting a tax refund, and I paid my income tax, by mail, on time.  The whole thing made you wonder just how many useless bureaucrats we are paying.  

  This time, I cannot tell if the CongressCritters will be able to pass a raise to debt ceiling.  In the Senate, just one Democrat deciding to vote against the debt ceiling raise would do the trick.  There might be some Democrats appalled by the deficit spending, on the other hand there might not be.  I cannot tell.  Things are a little looser in the house, the Democrats have a 5 vote majority.  I think Pelosi will be able to deliver the house for the Democrats.