Fate of Taiwan?

We are hearing more tough talk from the Chinese about how Taiwan is (or ought to be) part of China, and how the Chinese might take military action to make it so.  Taiwan is 120 miles off shore and the Strait of Taiwan that separates the island of Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is blue water, deep enough to float aircraft carriers.  The Chinese army is very big, bigger than ours, probably bigger than the Russians.  Should the Chinese get that army ashore on Taiwan (and keep it supplied) it’s all over for Taiwan.  No way can Taiwan produce an army big enough to compete with the Peoples Liberation Army. 

    So the secret of keeping Taiwan independent is keeping the Chinese from crossing the Strait.  This has two angles, navy and air force.  If Taiwan can put up enough aircraft to sink the Chinese ships carrying the Peoples Liberation Army to their shores, they win.  This can be hard to do.  The newest Chinese war planes are nearly as good as ours, or maybe just as good as ours.  The Chinese just have to put up fighters to take out Taiwan’s bombers.  Taiwan has to put up bombers to sink Chinese ships, and fighters to fend off the Chinese fighters.  The bombers might be US made A-10’s; they don’t have to be 8 engine strategic bombers.

   Or the Navy angle.  Best is a bunch of submarines, they can stay submerged and just torpedo any Chinese vessel that needs it.  As long as they stay underwater they are pretty much immune to enemy aircraft. The US Navy and the Chinese Navy have about the same number of ships.  The effectiveness of ships is largely the effectiveness of the ship’s missiles.  When surface ships meet in combat they fire missiles at each other.  The ships with the best missiles win.  Best missiles have best range, best anti jamming features, best and strongest warheads, best guidance systems.  We don’t really know how good Chinese missiles are.  Afghanistan and Ukraine have showed American Stinger anti aircraft missiles to be excellent.  Ukraine has shown the American Javelin antitank missile as highly effective.  We can believe American naval missiles are just as good.    When it comes to aircraft carriers, the combat effectiveness lies with the carrier’s air group.  All the carrier vessel needs to do is launch ‘em and land ‘em.  It’s up to the aircraft to survive enemy fighters and get hits on targets.

   Used to be America gave Taiwan private assurances that the US navy would keep the Chinese from invading them.  Now, with WRBA and Biden, nobody knows what to think.  The Chinese may think we will let them invade Taiwan.  Who knows?