Elected officials, US reps, State reps, Senators, selectmen, usually vote the way their district wants them too. These guys all want to get re-elected, and the way to do that is to vote the way their district wants.
On issues where the the district doesn't care, the rep can vote the way he likes, or trade his vote. On issues where the district cares, the rep has much less freedom. For instance, my district (Northern NH) doesn't care much about Gulf of Mexico oil drilling, immigration, or farm subsidies. This means our US rep, good old Charlie Bass, can, on these issues, trade his vote pretty much at will and we voters back in the district don't care much. On the other hand this district cares a lot about taxes, fuel prices, and jobs. On these issues Charlie has no discretion at all. Should he deviate from the district line, it will cost him in November and he knows it. We all have email and Cornerstone, the Tea Party and a bunch of others make sure we get the word about how Charlie voted on the stuff we care about.
Recently as the US economy has worsened and more voters find them selves out of work, the districts begin to care about a lot of things that they didn't use to give a hoot about. Which restricts the liberty of their reps to wheel and deal. Which makes it harder to get things like tonight's debt limit bill thru the Congress. Speaker Boehner is to be commended for lining up the votes to pass his debt limit hike bill this evening, it must have been hard.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Credit default swaps not saving Greek investors
The infamous credit default swap is not saving "investors" (aka speculators) in Greek debt. The Greeks are broke and will not be able to pay off their debts. Everyone knows this, and has known it for a long time. Desperate Greeks are offering 8,9,10 percent interest, which is a helova lot more then you get for investing in US treasuries. So a number of gullible Euro banks have been buying Greek debt and hedging the risk by purchasing "credit default swaps" (CDS) on the Greek debt. A "credit default swap" is like insurance, an equally gullible bank or insurance company offers a CDS which works like this. You pay me a hefty premium up front, and if the Greeks default, I'll pay you what the Greeks owe you.
With connivance of the EU central bank, the Greek debt holders are being coerced into "extending" the maturity of their Greek bonds and accepting less interest. In short, the Greeks don't pay, and they cut the interest rate. The lucky gullible investors find that the CDS won't pay off until the rating agencies (Standard & Poor and Moody) declares the Greeks in default. So far, the rating agencies are claiming the Greeks aren't defaulting, so the CDS's aren't paying off even as the investors are getting a haircut.
All is not bad. Investors should not be pouring valuable capital down the drain by investing in Greek debt, they ought to be investing in things that make money and provide jobs. Having the gullible investors who thought they could reap high interest risk free get skinned will wise up the rest of the bunch.
With connivance of the EU central bank, the Greek debt holders are being coerced into "extending" the maturity of their Greek bonds and accepting less interest. In short, the Greeks don't pay, and they cut the interest rate. The lucky gullible investors find that the CDS won't pay off until the rating agencies (Standard & Poor and Moody) declares the Greeks in default. So far, the rating agencies are claiming the Greeks aren't defaulting, so the CDS's aren't paying off even as the investors are getting a haircut.
All is not bad. Investors should not be pouring valuable capital down the drain by investing in Greek debt, they ought to be investing in things that make money and provide jobs. Having the gullible investors who thought they could reap high interest risk free get skinned will wise up the rest of the bunch.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Debt limit crisis is mostly smoke & mirrors
Some things to keep in mind as the posturing goes on.
1. All the numbers are for 10 year savings. Which means they are malarkey. Even if this year's Congress cuts something down, next year's Congress can push it right back up where it used to be. And if the cut was to a juicy piece of pork, you can bet it will be added back in next year. Plus, predictions of the Federal budget for the next ten years cannot take into account wars, economic depressions, and technological change. In the last ten years we had 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Prius, fracking, and Great Depression 2.0. What bad news lies in wait for us in the next ten years? The debate would be more honest if we kept the projections to just next year.
2. The budget cuts are likely to be fake cuts. A real cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it got last year. A fake cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it asked for. Our well educated and un biased newsies cannot tell the difference between a fake cut and a real cut.
1. All the numbers are for 10 year savings. Which means they are malarkey. Even if this year's Congress cuts something down, next year's Congress can push it right back up where it used to be. And if the cut was to a juicy piece of pork, you can bet it will be added back in next year. Plus, predictions of the Federal budget for the next ten years cannot take into account wars, economic depressions, and technological change. In the last ten years we had 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Prius, fracking, and Great Depression 2.0. What bad news lies in wait for us in the next ten years? The debate would be more honest if we kept the projections to just next year.
2. The budget cuts are likely to be fake cuts. A real cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it got last year. A fake cut occurs when the agency gets less money than it asked for. Our well educated and un biased newsies cannot tell the difference between a fake cut and a real cut.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
The Norway shooter
I hear attempts from left and right wing nutcases to blame the Norway shooter on political ideology. This is revolting.
The Norway shooter was a homicidal maniac (by definition) who took out his internal devils on 68 young people at a summer camp. Politics has nothing to do with it. Homicidal maniacs don't have politics, they have psychoses.
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The Norway shooter was a homicidal maniac (by definition) who took out his internal devils on 68 young people at a summer camp. Politics has nothing to do with it. Homicidal maniacs don't have politics, they have psychoses.
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FAA authorization?
Lost in the sound and fury over the debt limit is an interesting sidelight. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorization ran out last Friday. There was a dispute over $16 million in funding for "rural airports" and unionization of federal workers. The TV newsies did not say just who was in favor of what, but we can guess. Any how no compromise was reached and the authorization ran out.
So the FAA furloughed 4000 bureaucrats. The air traffic controllers were classified as "essential personnel" so they are on the job and the planes are flying. The Newshour had Ray Lahood, transportation secretary on last night. When asked what the 4000 laid off bureaucrats used to do, he mumbled "nextgen" and "improve the FAA". In short, they drew their pay but were not doing anything essential. Four thousand bureaucrats cost $400 billion a year, or $4 trillion over 10 years. Jeeze, just leaving them laid of would give a enough spending reduction to satisfy demands for spending cuts to cover a debt limit increase.
And the authorization to collect a 10% tax on tickets expired, which is a windfall to the airlines. They pocketed the money and didn't reduce air fares at all.
All and all, let's leave the FAA un authorized.
So the FAA furloughed 4000 bureaucrats. The air traffic controllers were classified as "essential personnel" so they are on the job and the planes are flying. The Newshour had Ray Lahood, transportation secretary on last night. When asked what the 4000 laid off bureaucrats used to do, he mumbled "nextgen" and "improve the FAA". In short, they drew their pay but were not doing anything essential. Four thousand bureaucrats cost $400 billion a year, or $4 trillion over 10 years. Jeeze, just leaving them laid of would give a enough spending reduction to satisfy demands for spending cuts to cover a debt limit increase.
And the authorization to collect a 10% tax on tickets expired, which is a windfall to the airlines. They pocketed the money and didn't reduce air fares at all.
All and all, let's leave the FAA un authorized.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Is Washington broken ?
Subject of the talk session on Meet the Press this morning. Translating pundit speak into plain English, we don't have the votes to pass our pet programs. And that's terrible.
We lack bipartisanship in Congress. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.
Everyone is so ideological now. Translation, they are voting their districts and the districts are up in arms. Few Congressmen dare to vote for more taxes or a debt limit increase lest their districts vote them out of office.
Nobody will compromise and compromise has become a bad word. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.
We lack bipartisanship in Congress. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.
Everyone is so ideological now. Translation, they are voting their districts and the districts are up in arms. Few Congressmen dare to vote for more taxes or a debt limit increase lest their districts vote them out of office.
Nobody will compromise and compromise has become a bad word. Translation, those nasty Republicans won't vote for our programs.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Debt limit?
Saturday TV claims a total break down of negotiations between Obama and Speaker of the House John Bohner. Maneuvering to place the blame for a government shut down continues.
A failure to raise the debt limit will be confusing. Some people will not get paid, and it's Obama who chooses who to pay and who to stiff. Unless Obama is totally out of his mind he will make payments on the national debt, pay the troops, and pay social security. Remember even under Obama, 60% of federal spending still comes from taxes, so the feds can pay 60% of their bills.
The Wall St credit raters like Standard and Poor are going apeshit and threatening to reduce the credit rating of the US government. However this is a sideshow, after rating all those worthless mortgage backed securities AAA nobody takes them seriously any more.
Republicans need to find a way to shift the blame to Obama, the real issue is winning in 2012 as opposed to gaining some mostly worthless promises to reduce spending in the future. All spending bills have to pass the Republican house and they can cut and trim the pork as desired, and they have until 2013 to keep doing so. In fact they ought to retain control of the House past the 2012 elections, giving plenty of time to reduce spending the old fashioned way.
A failure to raise the debt limit will be confusing. Some people will not get paid, and it's Obama who chooses who to pay and who to stiff. Unless Obama is totally out of his mind he will make payments on the national debt, pay the troops, and pay social security. Remember even under Obama, 60% of federal spending still comes from taxes, so the feds can pay 60% of their bills.
The Wall St credit raters like Standard and Poor are going apeshit and threatening to reduce the credit rating of the US government. However this is a sideshow, after rating all those worthless mortgage backed securities AAA nobody takes them seriously any more.
Republicans need to find a way to shift the blame to Obama, the real issue is winning in 2012 as opposed to gaining some mostly worthless promises to reduce spending in the future. All spending bills have to pass the Republican house and they can cut and trim the pork as desired, and they have until 2013 to keep doing so. In fact they ought to retain control of the House past the 2012 elections, giving plenty of time to reduce spending the old fashioned way.
A Marvel Comics Superhero movie
Captain America. It was pretty good if you like that kind of movie. Better than Ironman, better than the last Spiderman. Once the movie gets past the origin story, it settles down to steady ass kicking and that's fun to watch. There is a girl friend, who has an impressive upper cut and a government model 45. She spends most of the movie making Capt America pay for an incautious office smooch with a passing blonde clerk-typist.
The whole thing is set in the 1940's and WWII. The vintage scenes are well done, I was unable to spot any anachronisms. It's in 3 D, 'cause every one is doing three D. I wish the 3 D thing would go away. The effects aren't that eye catching, the glasses are annoying and the theatre charges extra for 3D movies.
For opening night, the crowd wasn't that big, there were a lot more people last week for the third night of Harry Potter.
The whole thing is set in the 1940's and WWII. The vintage scenes are well done, I was unable to spot any anachronisms. It's in 3 D, 'cause every one is doing three D. I wish the 3 D thing would go away. The effects aren't that eye catching, the glasses are annoying and the theatre charges extra for 3D movies.
For opening night, the crowd wasn't that big, there were a lot more people last week for the third night of Harry Potter.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Security, computer style, small business
Wall St Journal reports that hackers are having a field day hacking small business computer systems. Smaller operations lack a big well trained IT department dedicated to keeping hackers out.
For small business men, I offer the following advice to keep your business information confidential. Worry about the security of plans and drawings, the CAD files that control the making of your product. And the software, both source code and executable that make the product run. Email, customer lists, human resources material such as employee reviews, and especially payroll. You don't want your competitor hiring away your best people, and going after your customers.
Remember that Windows computers have no security, any high school kid can break in and do anything he likes, tracelessly. Windows computers connected to the internet are even more vulnerable. An unpatched Windows computer will be infected by a virus within 10 minutes of connecting it to the net.
In light of this, step one means don't keep anything on a Windows computer that you don't absolutely have to have there. Let ADP do your payroll on their machines. Back the plans, drawings and software up to CD's and store them in file cabinets. Review all those reports each department makes and keeps, with an eye to weeding out the deadwood and backing up the historical stuff. If you ever get sued or investigated it's stuff from your files they will use to hang you. Less is better.
Don't allow dialup connections to your company machines. A dialup user is most likely a hacker.
Disconnect from the network all machines that don't absolutely have to have live internet access. Those dedicated machines down in production that burn proms, and test product don't need to be on the internet.
Brief your people that anything they put in email is public, just as if they posted it on the cafeteria bulletin board. Discussion of issues of interest to your competitors should be down face to face, not by email.
There are no silver bullets, your company computer network is vulnerable. Your only chance is to remove stuff you don't want your competitors to see.
For small business men, I offer the following advice to keep your business information confidential. Worry about the security of plans and drawings, the CAD files that control the making of your product. And the software, both source code and executable that make the product run. Email, customer lists, human resources material such as employee reviews, and especially payroll. You don't want your competitor hiring away your best people, and going after your customers.
Remember that Windows computers have no security, any high school kid can break in and do anything he likes, tracelessly. Windows computers connected to the internet are even more vulnerable. An unpatched Windows computer will be infected by a virus within 10 minutes of connecting it to the net.
In light of this, step one means don't keep anything on a Windows computer that you don't absolutely have to have there. Let ADP do your payroll on their machines. Back the plans, drawings and software up to CD's and store them in file cabinets. Review all those reports each department makes and keeps, with an eye to weeding out the deadwood and backing up the historical stuff. If you ever get sued or investigated it's stuff from your files they will use to hang you. Less is better.
Don't allow dialup connections to your company machines. A dialup user is most likely a hacker.
Disconnect from the network all machines that don't absolutely have to have live internet access. Those dedicated machines down in production that burn proms, and test product don't need to be on the internet.
Brief your people that anything they put in email is public, just as if they posted it on the cafeteria bulletin board. Discussion of issues of interest to your competitors should be down face to face, not by email.
There are no silver bullets, your company computer network is vulnerable. Your only chance is to remove stuff you don't want your competitors to see.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Geography
Today's WSJ had an article bewailing the poor showing of American school children on a geography test.
They taught geography when I was in third grade. By the time I reached sixth grade, they stopped teaching geography, in stead we had "social studies" None of my children had a geography book or class.
If you don't teach it, don't expect children to know it.
They taught geography when I was in third grade. By the time I reached sixth grade, they stopped teaching geography, in stead we had "social studies" None of my children had a geography book or class.
If you don't teach it, don't expect children to know it.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Corporate Income Tax reform
Corporate income tax (at least for publicly traded corporations) should be a straight 20% (down from 35%) of the yearly profit from the corporation's annual report, the SEC approved, and audited report they show to Wall St investors. No allowances for domestic production, use of ethanol, purchase of electrical vehicles, green goodness or anything else. No loss carryover, loosing money last year is no reason to get a tax break this year.
Rationale. Accounting is so slippery that clever and crooked accountants can and do turn losses into profits, loans into income, phone bills into capital investments, and similar trickery that we might as well take advantage of all the rules and paperwork that attempts to limit accounting swindles for tax assessment. Plus companies are less likely to declare purely imaginary profits when they have to pay taxes on them.
Rationale. Accounting is so slippery that clever and crooked accountants can and do turn losses into profits, loans into income, phone bills into capital investments, and similar trickery that we might as well take advantage of all the rules and paperwork that attempts to limit accounting swindles for tax assessment. Plus companies are less likely to declare purely imaginary profits when they have to pay taxes on them.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Three D in the movies
I forgot to mention the last Harry Potter movie was in Three D, and we now have three D up here, unlike a few years ago when we had to watch Avatar in two D.
The effect was pretty good. At least everything looked three d, and the color was good, the focus was acceptable, and there were no artifacts. But it didn't really add much to the flick. The three-D glasses are uncomfortable, especially over eye glasses and they show odd reflections from theater lighting.
The director mostly refrained from having things fly out of the screen into the audience's lap. Showing mature restraint on his part.
The effect was pretty good. At least everything looked three d, and the color was good, the focus was acceptable, and there were no artifacts. But it didn't really add much to the flick. The three-D glasses are uncomfortable, especially over eye glasses and they show odd reflections from theater lighting.
The director mostly refrained from having things fly out of the screen into the audience's lap. Showing mature restraint on his part.
The Last Harry Potter Movie
So of course we went to see it. This is the third night it has been playing in Littleton, and apparently a good many townspeople had yet to see it. The Jax Jr was pretty full.
It was a good Potter movie, better than the last one. More action and less standing around thinking gloomy thoughts. The principles, Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson and Rupert Grint did their usual competent acting. Plot continuity sucked, as is usual in Potter movies. If you haven't read the book, it's meaningless whirl of special effects. I have read the book, and the two hour movie manages to cover most of the book's plot. The ending is the same. There are some great scenes, like when the dragon rises up thru the floor of Gringotts bank, scattering Goblin tellers left and right and bringing down the biggest crystal chandelier in the world. Or when the underground rail car at Gringott's stops on a bridge, sets out anti collision flashers and then dumps all the passengers into the deep gorge below the bridge.
I'm gonna miss the yearly Harry Potter movie. Too bad we have reached the end of the line.
It was a good Potter movie, better than the last one. More action and less standing around thinking gloomy thoughts. The principles, Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson and Rupert Grint did their usual competent acting. Plot continuity sucked, as is usual in Potter movies. If you haven't read the book, it's meaningless whirl of special effects. I have read the book, and the two hour movie manages to cover most of the book's plot. The ending is the same. There are some great scenes, like when the dragon rises up thru the floor of Gringotts bank, scattering Goblin tellers left and right and bringing down the biggest crystal chandelier in the world. Or when the underground rail car at Gringott's stops on a bridge, sets out anti collision flashers and then dumps all the passengers into the deep gorge below the bridge.
I'm gonna miss the yearly Harry Potter movie. Too bad we have reached the end of the line.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
What do Republicans do now?
The Republicans hoped to tie some spending cuts or even entitlement revision to the debt limit increase. It isn't working, Obama said no deal. In fact he is asking for tax hikes.
If the Republicans hang tough, let the money run out and shut the US government down, will it help them win in 2012? With the ever helpful main stream media blaming the republicans full time? Something like this happened back in Gingrich/Clinton time and it didn't work out for the GOP. That's why Gingrich is no longer Republican Speaker of the House, or even a Congressman.
Or, the Republicans can say, "Here is a $2.5 trillion hike to the national credit limit." Humiliating, but perhaps better than losing the blame game. And then spend the time to election refusing to pass porky spending bills. McConnell in the Senate is proposing just that policy.
What comes next? Film at 11.
If the Republicans hang tough, let the money run out and shut the US government down, will it help them win in 2012? With the ever helpful main stream media blaming the republicans full time? Something like this happened back in Gingrich/Clinton time and it didn't work out for the GOP. That's why Gingrich is no longer Republican Speaker of the House, or even a Congressman.
Or, the Republicans can say, "Here is a $2.5 trillion hike to the national credit limit." Humiliating, but perhaps better than losing the blame game. And then spend the time to election refusing to pass porky spending bills. McConnell in the Senate is proposing just that policy.
What comes next? Film at 11.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Speaking of chargers
Would not it be wonderful if all the chargers would intermate? So one charger could run your Kindle, laptop, cellphone, Ipad, and camera.
This is technologically possible, all these devices use DC, at some where between 5 and 12 volts. Define a standard plug and receptacle and spec 'em all to work on 12 volts.
The electrical industry managed this trick 100 years ago, which is why light bulbs all fit the same socket and all appliance plugs fit the wall outlets.
This is technologically possible, all these devices use DC, at some where between 5 and 12 volts. Define a standard plug and receptacle and spec 'em all to work on 12 volts.
The electrical industry managed this trick 100 years ago, which is why light bulbs all fit the same socket and all appliance plugs fit the wall outlets.
Sign of the times
Neighbor comes over to borrow a Kindle charger. She is on the last 70 pages of a Robert Ludlum thriller and the Kindle battery dies on her. She forgot to pack the charger.
Sorry, I tell her, I don't have a Kindle and neither does my son.
Sorry, I tell her, I don't have a Kindle and neither does my son.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Some Spending Cuts we should all agree to
1. Shut down the TSA. All they do is hassle passengers and molest small children. They have never caught a terrorist. It is passengers who keep airliners un hijacked. After 9/11 passengers know that it is death to permit hijackers to take control of an aircraft. They have taken decisive action (once involving a fire axe applied to a perp's head) several times since then.
2. Shut down BATFE. Before they started facilitating guns to Mexican drug lords, they brought us Ruby Ridge and the Waco tragedy.
3. Cut funding for CIA. They predicted that Saddam had nukes (weapons of mass destruction). They failed to predict the breakup of the the Soviet Union. They didn't have any agents inside Saddam's Iraq. They still work out of embassies. They claimed that Iran stopped building nukes. They attempted to destabilize the Bush Administration. With a record like that who in their right mind would believe any intelligence they furnish? Besides the NSA codebreakers and the recon satellites furnish the real intelligence.
2. Shut down BATFE. Before they started facilitating guns to Mexican drug lords, they brought us Ruby Ridge and the Waco tragedy.
3. Cut funding for CIA. They predicted that Saddam had nukes (weapons of mass destruction). They failed to predict the breakup of the the Soviet Union. They didn't have any agents inside Saddam's Iraq. They still work out of embassies. They claimed that Iran stopped building nukes. They attempted to destabilize the Bush Administration. With a record like that who in their right mind would believe any intelligence they furnish? Besides the NSA codebreakers and the recon satellites furnish the real intelligence.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Chicken is a high stakes game
And that is what Obama is playing on the debt ceiling. He wants a tax hike. The Republicans want spending cuts. Obama thinks the Republicans will cave if he stands tough. The House Republicans are thinking the same. Head on collision anyone?
When a top level meeting at the White House breaks up after only 90 minutes, they are not doing serious bargaining.
When a top level meeting at the White House breaks up after only 90 minutes, they are not doing serious bargaining.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Media Matters vs the NRA
Long discussion of "media mattters"(a liberal anti fox news website). The liberal member of the panel kept comparing media matters to the NRA.
Not a good comparison. The NRA represents some 2 million dues paying members. Media matters represents a dozen or so lefty bloggers.
Not a good comparison. The NRA represents some 2 million dues paying members. Media matters represents a dozen or so lefty bloggers.
Windows 7 takes a step backward toward DOS
Back in the bad old days when a program locked up, you could reboot (control-alt-delete) or cycle power to regain control. Windows NT, ancestor of today's windows fixed that. Control-alt-delete brought up Task Manager which allowed you to select the errant program with the mouse and shut it down.
Windows 7 seems to have broken this handy feature. Task Manager still come up, but the mouse doesn't work, which makes it nearly impossible to do anything useful with Task Manager.
"Nearly" means there are some keyboard short cuts that allow the user to do mouse things with keystrokes but few people remember what those short cuts are. I surely don't.
Windows 7 seems to have broken this handy feature. Task Manager still come up, but the mouse doesn't work, which makes it nearly impossible to do anything useful with Task Manager.
"Nearly" means there are some keyboard short cuts that allow the user to do mouse things with keystrokes but few people remember what those short cuts are. I surely don't.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
Obama thinks Detroit can achieve 52 mile per gallon. In fact they are making regulations right now that will require 52 mpg in a few years. The only way to do this for real is to stop making pickup trucks, SUV's, full size sedans, and minivans, and make nothing but tiny four seat econoboxes. In the real world, the only way to increase gas mileage is make the car lighter and the engine smaller. So get ready for a lot of plastic, less sound deadening, and little tiny engines that have to wind up to 10,000 rpm just to pull up a steep driveway. And wait for the turbo to spool up before you get much power.
If you have a family to move and a house to maintain, your only hope is to find a used minivan surviving from the 2010's and restore it.
If you have a family to move and a house to maintain, your only hope is to find a used minivan surviving from the 2010's and restore it.
Friday, July 8, 2011
A balanced budget amendment
The Congress critters are talking this up. But does it really do anything? A balanced budget occurs when authorized spending is less than estimated revenues. An ancient method of "balancing" a budget is simply to estimate more revenue. Presto, chango, look we have a balanced budget, on paper.
Then there is the "off-budget" scam. Like the post office. USPS is really a government operation, but since it was "privatized" it doesn't show up on the federal budget. Lots of other things could be moved off budget too.
And then there is the emergency escape hatch. In times of dire emergency it will be OK to go in the red. And somehow every year has a dire emergency, and therefore we can spend more than we take in for "just that year".
Polls show that 72% of voters are in favor of a balanced budget amendment. But the same polls show that only 30% of voters are in favor of a balanced budget amendment if it cut their benefits or raised their taxes.
Translation, the voters are in favor of reduced spending, but they don't want to talk about bad things like cuts and tax hikes. Understandable.
Politicians can curry favor with voter by talking about balanced budget amendments rather than bad things like cuts and tax hikes.
We will go down the same drain the Greeks are going down if politicians won't talk about cuts and tax hikes.
Then there is the "off-budget" scam. Like the post office. USPS is really a government operation, but since it was "privatized" it doesn't show up on the federal budget. Lots of other things could be moved off budget too.
And then there is the emergency escape hatch. In times of dire emergency it will be OK to go in the red. And somehow every year has a dire emergency, and therefore we can spend more than we take in for "just that year".
Polls show that 72% of voters are in favor of a balanced budget amendment. But the same polls show that only 30% of voters are in favor of a balanced budget amendment if it cut their benefits or raised their taxes.
Translation, the voters are in favor of reduced spending, but they don't want to talk about bad things like cuts and tax hikes. Understandable.
Politicians can curry favor with voter by talking about balanced budget amendments rather than bad things like cuts and tax hikes.
We will go down the same drain the Greeks are going down if politicians won't talk about cuts and tax hikes.
Private sector jobs create wealth
And government jobs consume it. NHPR was talking about employment this morning, after a dismal jobs report for last month. The economist doing the talking was full of gloom and doom, there is no sector of the economy with any hiring going on. He thought it was just dreadful that 400,000 government employees had been laid off.
In actual fact, private sector workers, farmers, miners, factory workers, truck drivers, telephone linemen, loggers, salesmen, create real wealth which pays for all the government workers. Government workers don't produce wealth. In fact those 400,000 government workers were costing $400 million in pay and benefits, all if which comes from taxes on the private sector workers.
In actual fact, private sector workers, farmers, miners, factory workers, truck drivers, telephone linemen, loggers, salesmen, create real wealth which pays for all the government workers. Government workers don't produce wealth. In fact those 400,000 government workers were costing $400 million in pay and benefits, all if which comes from taxes on the private sector workers.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Lying to the cops is a crime?
Didn't used to be. But it is now. As everyone in the universe must know, the jury refused to convict Casey Anthony on the charges of murder and child abuse. They did convict her on charges of lying to the cops. In short, the prosecution lacked enough evidence to convict on the serious charges, but after three years of investigation and interrogation they found some inconsistencies in her answers and heh presto, we got something we can pin on her.
If, God forbid, the prosecutors came after me and grilled me for three years, and kept notes, they would be able to catch me on something I said. As a defendant, your best bet is never to say anything to the cops. With or without your lawyer present.
If the prosecutors cannot get the jury to convict on serious charges, the defendant ought to go free.
If, God forbid, the prosecutors came after me and grilled me for three years, and kept notes, they would be able to catch me on something I said. As a defendant, your best bet is never to say anything to the cops. With or without your lawyer present.
If the prosecutors cannot get the jury to convict on serious charges, the defendant ought to go free.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
All teachers are education majors.
And education is the belief that there is an art or science of education, and more over, that art or science is teachable. And that teachers need to be taught it.
I don't believe in the art or science of education. Any competent adult can teach effectively. I saw that in the Air Force. We would take 20 year old sergeants right off the flight line and put them into the Field Training Detachment teaching classes of teen age airmen. I went thru a number of these training sessions. These instant teachers were good, as good as any of the teachers I ever had in grade school, high school or college. The subject matter, jet engines, radar, instruments, auto pilot, hydraulics, missiles, radio, nav aids, was complex and difficult. The sergeants, who knew their subject matter cold, had no trouble teaching it, and teaching it to classes of teen aged boys. Who paid attention, took notes, and asked questions. It helped that the subject matter was interesting and relevant, all the students knew that mastery of the material was key to peer group respect and official promotion.
Given this, I think we would do better hiring teachers who majored in English, US history, mathematics, foreign languages, chemistry, physics, biology, and music rather than education majors. The secret to teaching well is a solid knowledge of your subject.
I don't believe in the art or science of education. Any competent adult can teach effectively. I saw that in the Air Force. We would take 20 year old sergeants right off the flight line and put them into the Field Training Detachment teaching classes of teen age airmen. I went thru a number of these training sessions. These instant teachers were good, as good as any of the teachers I ever had in grade school, high school or college. The subject matter, jet engines, radar, instruments, auto pilot, hydraulics, missiles, radio, nav aids, was complex and difficult. The sergeants, who knew their subject matter cold, had no trouble teaching it, and teaching it to classes of teen aged boys. Who paid attention, took notes, and asked questions. It helped that the subject matter was interesting and relevant, all the students knew that mastery of the material was key to peer group respect and official promotion.
Given this, I think we would do better hiring teachers who majored in English, US history, mathematics, foreign languages, chemistry, physics, biology, and music rather than education majors. The secret to teaching well is a solid knowledge of your subject.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Making a super power
The secret of becoming a superpower is simple, be big, big in population, big in land area. In this respect the United States has done well. In population we are one of the biggest, only China and India are in our class. Every other country is smaller. In land area we are also in the top, only Russia is decisively larger. Canada, China, Brazil and Australia are in our class, followed by India.
The secret of reaching large size, also simple, it takes a political cultural and economic system that makes the population want to become and stay citizens. The United States had two historical turning points that set us on the road to superpower status.
One was right after the Revolution. The 13 colonies came out of the Revolutionary War as mini-nations, with governments, court systems, colony employees, armies and navies, and populations loyal to, and enthusiastic about, their home colony. The 13 colonies might never have come together to form the Union. An alternate history would have North America divided into 50 independent sovereign nations, much like Europe is today. Fortunately, the American establishment of the time, the Founding Fathers, were able to create the Constitution and get it ratified. This was a near run thing, it might have failed.
The second was the Civil War in 1860. The south could have won, or the bitterness could have split the nation. Neither happened, the north put forth incredible military effort, and accepted the terrible costs of a four year war. After Appomattox, the Union offered reasonable peace terms which the south accepted.
Had either of these historical turning points gone the other way, there would be no American superpower today.
In short, the road to super power lies in a political system that can unite and keep united vast territories. The United States appears to have mastered this trick.
Other countries are not on board yet. The Soviet Union broke up, and the surviving Russia is a third smaller than the old USSR was. Czechoslovakia broke in two. Yugoslavia broke into half a dozen pieces. Canada came close to having Quebec secede.
So on this, the fourth Independence Day into Great Depression 2.0, let us hope that we Americans have not lost the the ability to pull together, cut the necessary deals, and keep things moving forward.
The secret of reaching large size, also simple, it takes a political cultural and economic system that makes the population want to become and stay citizens. The United States had two historical turning points that set us on the road to superpower status.
One was right after the Revolution. The 13 colonies came out of the Revolutionary War as mini-nations, with governments, court systems, colony employees, armies and navies, and populations loyal to, and enthusiastic about, their home colony. The 13 colonies might never have come together to form the Union. An alternate history would have North America divided into 50 independent sovereign nations, much like Europe is today. Fortunately, the American establishment of the time, the Founding Fathers, were able to create the Constitution and get it ratified. This was a near run thing, it might have failed.
The second was the Civil War in 1860. The south could have won, or the bitterness could have split the nation. Neither happened, the north put forth incredible military effort, and accepted the terrible costs of a four year war. After Appomattox, the Union offered reasonable peace terms which the south accepted.
Had either of these historical turning points gone the other way, there would be no American superpower today.
In short, the road to super power lies in a political system that can unite and keep united vast territories. The United States appears to have mastered this trick.
Other countries are not on board yet. The Soviet Union broke up, and the surviving Russia is a third smaller than the old USSR was. Czechoslovakia broke in two. Yugoslavia broke into half a dozen pieces. Canada came close to having Quebec secede.
So on this, the fourth Independence Day into Great Depression 2.0, let us hope that we Americans have not lost the the ability to pull together, cut the necessary deals, and keep things moving forward.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Fukushima
The Wall St Journal ran an article critical of the design of the Fukushima reactors. According to the journal, the oldest reactors (first one installed in 1962) consisted of two buildings, a very rugged one to house the reactor, and a lesser building to house the steam turbines. In the oldest reactors, a crucial electrical panel, and the backup diesel generators were housed in the less rugged turbine building. Those reactors lost electrical power when the backup generators and electrical panels were drowned in seawater by the tsunami. Without electrical power for the coolant pumps, those reactors melted down.
The later Fukushima reactors had both the electrical panel and the backup generators inside the more rugged reactor building. The juice stayed on, the coolant pumps ran, and those reactors didn't leak radioactive materials into the local area.
The Journal criticizes the owners (TEPCO) for failing to upgrade the earlier reactors to the later design standard. A valid point methinks, although it takes advantage of 20-20 hindsight.
Just in case a reactor looses electric power, would it not be nice to have reliable gasoline or diesel engines next to each crucial coolant pump? With a clutch to couple the engine to the pump? When the juice goes out, plant operators walk down the plant floor and start each pump engine, and the reactor stays cool.
The later Fukushima reactors had both the electrical panel and the backup generators inside the more rugged reactor building. The juice stayed on, the coolant pumps ran, and those reactors didn't leak radioactive materials into the local area.
The Journal criticizes the owners (TEPCO) for failing to upgrade the earlier reactors to the later design standard. A valid point methinks, although it takes advantage of 20-20 hindsight.
Just in case a reactor looses electric power, would it not be nice to have reliable gasoline or diesel engines next to each crucial coolant pump? With a clutch to couple the engine to the pump? When the juice goes out, plant operators walk down the plant floor and start each pump engine, and the reactor stays cool.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
What's Fourth of July without a Parade?
I dunno. Franconia ran off a Fourth of July parade today. Heh, it's Saturday. We had floats, antique cars, WWII veterans marching, bands not marching (they ride on trailers), Ray Burton and his yellow 60's convertible, and a horde of little kids wearing orange T-shirts and carrying Stop Northern Pass signs. There will be a duck race this afternoon, a tuba concert on the Dow Academy field and fireworks when the sun goes down.
The fire trucks are enormous. All built on ten ton Mack or International Harvester truck chassis, they tower over the one story buildings along Franconia's main drag. And there are a lot of 'em. Like ten, from Franconia, Sugar Hill, Easton, and Bethlehem. All glittering in good paint, freshly waxed. In the up country, we are prepared, perhaps overprepared, for Armageddon.
A good time was had by all, Contrary to recent items on Fox News, Democrats were out in force and enjoyed the festivities.
The fire trucks are enormous. All built on ten ton Mack or International Harvester truck chassis, they tower over the one story buildings along Franconia's main drag. And there are a lot of 'em. Like ten, from Franconia, Sugar Hill, Easton, and Bethlehem. All glittering in good paint, freshly waxed. In the up country, we are prepared, perhaps overprepared, for Armageddon.
A good time was had by all, Contrary to recent items on Fox News, Democrats were out in force and enjoyed the festivities.
Plastic Corks
Arrgh. Some are too slippery, and the corkscrew just make's 'em turn round and round in the neck of the bottle. The other sort let the corkscrew pierce the cork but the piercing doesn't heal, so wine dribble out the hole in the cork when you put the bottle on it's side in the fridge.
If they can't afford real cork for the cork, they are better off with (gasp) metal screw tops on wine.
If they can't afford real cork for the cork, they are better off with (gasp) metal screw tops on wine.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Speaking of tax loopholes
Loss carry forward. If you loose money, you can apply the loss you had last year to this year's taxes. You say to the IRS "Yes, I made $47 million dollars this year, but I lost $99 million dollars last year, so I own no taxes at all." This is how GE managed to pay no federal income tax this year.
Loss carry forward subsides losers. If you subsidize it, you get more of it. Why do we want to do this?
Eliminating tax loss carry forward won't hurt the vast bulk of taxpayers, both individuals and corporations, 'cause most taxpayers don't loose money, they make money. It will certainly simplify tax filing.
Loss carry forward subsides losers. If you subsidize it, you get more of it. Why do we want to do this?
Eliminating tax loss carry forward won't hurt the vast bulk of taxpayers, both individuals and corporations, 'cause most taxpayers don't loose money, they make money. It will certainly simplify tax filing.
Youngest son vs Windows 7
Youngest son bought a new laptop. UPS delivered yesterday, and he spent last evening tinkering with it. He reports that Windows 7 comes with 86 "processes" sucking up RAM and CPU time. (Windows XP gets by on 15 "processes"). It's slow. And fat. And power management comes set to automatically turn the machine off after 15 minutes without a keystroke, even running on AC power. He noticed this feature after setting the machine up to download a raft of stuff over night.
Youngest son is about to reload with Windows XP.
Youngest son is about to reload with Windows XP.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Is it a loop hole to be closed or a tax hike?
Strange bedfellows. Last week the Senate voted to end US tax breaks for the ethanol industry. Then Grover Norquist, long time anti tax activist popped up and complained that closing this tax loophole was actually a tax hike and he opposed it. Norquist does his homework, and has persuaded most congressional republicans to sign his no-tax pledge. So he is hard to ignore.
Then Obama came out four square for tax changes to cut the budget deficit. He wants to close a loophole for corporate jets, another he claims is for the oil industry but is actually available to all US manufacturers, and a tax break he says applies to hedge fund managers.
So are these tax hikes or loophole closings? And is this real money or chickenfeed? The corporate jet loophole actually applies to all new aircraft, and Obama hasn't said what he is proposing, killing it for all aircraft, changing it to exclude small jets, or to exclude all light aircraft.
The oil industry is taking advantage of the 8% US manufacturing tax credit which was passed in 2004. Oil drilling counts as manufacturing.
The hedge fund tax break is "carried interest", IRS jargon meaning the right to treat manager's bonuses as capital gains. Managers get a bonus based upon how much the funds assets appreciate, and the IRS allows this to be taxed at the 15% capital gains rate rather than the 35% ordinary interest rate. The democrats tried to make this law last year but failed. This one is probably real money, the other two are chicken feed.
So what we have here is probably loophole closing, but the Republicans are properly rejecting it as tax hikes, because you don't want to give Obama anything on the revenue side until you have pinned him down on spending cuts.
Then Obama came out four square for tax changes to cut the budget deficit. He wants to close a loophole for corporate jets, another he claims is for the oil industry but is actually available to all US manufacturers, and a tax break he says applies to hedge fund managers.
So are these tax hikes or loophole closings? And is this real money or chickenfeed? The corporate jet loophole actually applies to all new aircraft, and Obama hasn't said what he is proposing, killing it for all aircraft, changing it to exclude small jets, or to exclude all light aircraft.
The oil industry is taking advantage of the 8% US manufacturing tax credit which was passed in 2004. Oil drilling counts as manufacturing.
The hedge fund tax break is "carried interest", IRS jargon meaning the right to treat manager's bonuses as capital gains. Managers get a bonus based upon how much the funds assets appreciate, and the IRS allows this to be taxed at the 15% capital gains rate rather than the 35% ordinary interest rate. The democrats tried to make this law last year but failed. This one is probably real money, the other two are chicken feed.
So what we have here is probably loophole closing, but the Republicans are properly rejecting it as tax hikes, because you don't want to give Obama anything on the revenue side until you have pinned him down on spending cuts.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Waterboarding
"The Interrogator: An Education" by Glenn L. Carle. Reviewed in the Wall St Journal by Ali Soufan. The author retired from CIA, the reviewer retired from the FBI, and both of them did some of the interrogation of 9/11 detainees. They both conclude that "enhanced interrogation techniques" (aka waterboarding) did no good. Under duress, all but the dumbest detainee would tell the interrogator anything he wanted to hear, just to make it stop hurting.
What price Alternate Energy?
Harbor Freight, a low end retailer of low end tools and hardware, is offering a 45 Watt solar panel for $169.99, or $3.77 per watt. Same catalog offers a 800 watt gasoline generator for $99.99, or $0.12 per watt. Or, a utility can buy a 1 Gigawatt nuclear plant for $6 billion, or $0.006 per watt.
Solar cells are not going anywhere because they cost way too much. And they don't give any electricity after the sun goes down, which is when I really want my electric lights to work.
Solar cells are not going anywhere because they cost way too much. And they don't give any electricity after the sun goes down, which is when I really want my electric lights to work.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
What are kids reading today?
Does not look good. Take a look here The only book in the whole list that is any good is The Golden Compass by Pullman. The rest have just horrible stories featuring suicide, rape, cutting, drug use, and a distopia (The Giver)that makes 1984 look like summer camp. Bummers all of 'em.
What happened to the books I enjoyed in middle and high school? J.R.R. Tolkien, Edgar Rice Burroughs, Robert A. Heinlein, Rudyard Kipling, Andre Norton, Isaac Asimov, Montgomery Atwater, Sperry Armstrong, Poul Anderson, L. Frank Baum, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Jules Verne, Frans Gunnar Bengtson, Fletcher Pratt, Willy Ley?
What happened to the books I enjoyed in middle and high school? J.R.R. Tolkien, Edgar Rice Burroughs, Robert A. Heinlein, Rudyard Kipling, Andre Norton, Isaac Asimov, Montgomery Atwater, Sperry Armstrong, Poul Anderson, L. Frank Baum, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Jules Verne, Frans Gunnar Bengtson, Fletcher Pratt, Willy Ley?
An Army at Dawn by Rick Atkinson
A good read. Atkinson tells the story of the WWII North African invasion, Operation Torch. It starts off with controversy, the American general staff was dead set against it. Roosevelt intervened, over rode the US military's objections, and the operation was on. The invasion fleet loaded up in Norfolk Virginia, steamed across the Atlantic and hit the North African beaches some 3000 miles away. One troopship was torpedoed and the troops lowered their landing craft in mid Atlantic, planning to motor the rest of the way. They didn't make it, and had to be rescued by a destroyer, but it was a noble effort.
Then there was a need for a shallow draft vessel to bring bombs and aviation gas up a shallow river to an airfield. A tired banana boat, the Contessa, was commandeered, dry docked for a scrape and paint of the hull, plus leak repairs. When the crew heard where the Contessa was bound, they all jumped ship. The captain and first mate go down to the Norfolk jail and pretty soon they have a new crew of men who think crossing the sub infested Atlantic, loaded with gasoline and explosives, is a better deal than a Virginia chain gang. The Contessa makes it, picks up a local pilot, gets up the river and unloads at the airfield.
Any history buff will enjoy this one.
Then there was a need for a shallow draft vessel to bring bombs and aviation gas up a shallow river to an airfield. A tired banana boat, the Contessa, was commandeered, dry docked for a scrape and paint of the hull, plus leak repairs. When the crew heard where the Contessa was bound, they all jumped ship. The captain and first mate go down to the Norfolk jail and pretty soon they have a new crew of men who think crossing the sub infested Atlantic, loaded with gasoline and explosives, is a better deal than a Virginia chain gang. The Contessa makes it, picks up a local pilot, gets up the river and unloads at the airfield.
Any history buff will enjoy this one.
Monday, June 27, 2011
NH Budget
We should praise our New Hampshire legislators for passing a real balanced budget. Give them extra credit for getting the governor to go along with it. The new budget reduces state spending by 11.7% from last year. These are real cuts. Real cuts occur when the agencies get less money than they got last time. Fake cuts (popular in government circles) occur when the agencies get less than they asked for. This budget has real cuts.
Much angst has been raised among democrats about cuts to worthy programs. In the real world, there is never enough money to pay for all the worthy programs. The programs cut are all worthy programs, but we just do not have the money to pay for them. We will never have to money to pay for all the things that would be nice to have.
The state only has so much money. It can’t get any more without raising taxes. We taxpayers are paying too much right now. We are facing layoffs; cuts in hours worked; a dreadful job market; increased gasoline and furnace oil prices; and increased food prices. We don’t have any more money to give to the state.
Much angst has been raised among democrats about cuts to worthy programs. In the real world, there is never enough money to pay for all the worthy programs. The programs cut are all worthy programs, but we just do not have the money to pay for them. We will never have to money to pay for all the things that would be nice to have.
The state only has so much money. It can’t get any more without raising taxes. We taxpayers are paying too much right now. We are facing layoffs; cuts in hours worked; a dreadful job market; increased gasoline and furnace oil prices; and increased food prices. We don’t have any more money to give to the state.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Swiss bomb shelters
According to the Journal, Swiss building codes require all new residential construction to have a bomb shelter. And, said shelter is supposed to be hard enough to ride out a 12 megaton nuke at 700 meters. Damn, that's hard. I don't think missile silo's are that hard.
Now that the cold war is over the Swiss are debating relaxing the bomb shelter requirements...
Now that the cold war is over the Swiss are debating relaxing the bomb shelter requirements...
Friday, June 24, 2011
Patent Law revision
The US House just passed a law to revise US patent law. The Senate has already passed it's own patent law, so after the House-Senate conference resolves the differences, it will go to Obama for signature.
Speaking as someone who worked in new product development for forty years, the US patent system is research and development hostile. Develop something, get it into production and bingo, get sued. There is always some patent troll holding a vaguely worded patent with claims as broad as all outdoors demanding money. Things like "Use of computer to transmit data", or "Register customer's sale after one mouse click."
These are mickey mouse patents that should never have been granted, but they were granted, and now some lawyers use them to take money away from developers.
What we need is to tighten up the granting of patents, and make it easier to revoke the mickey-mouse patents that are out there.
What are we going to get? More welfare for lawyers. They want to change the US system from "first to invent" to "first to file a patent". This is good for lawyers, 'cause it requires every inventor to file an expensive patent as early as possible. Right now you don't have to file until the idea shapes up to the point that it has some economic possibilities. Under "first-to-file" you better file as soon as possible, lest the idea leak out and some troll files first. Result, lots and lots of patent applications. Plus, large companies with legal staff have it easier filing a patent than a small startup does.
Speaking as someone who worked in new product development for forty years, the US patent system is research and development hostile. Develop something, get it into production and bingo, get sued. There is always some patent troll holding a vaguely worded patent with claims as broad as all outdoors demanding money. Things like "Use of computer to transmit data", or "Register customer's sale after one mouse click."
These are mickey mouse patents that should never have been granted, but they were granted, and now some lawyers use them to take money away from developers.
What we need is to tighten up the granting of patents, and make it easier to revoke the mickey-mouse patents that are out there.
What are we going to get? More welfare for lawyers. They want to change the US system from "first to invent" to "first to file a patent". This is good for lawyers, 'cause it requires every inventor to file an expensive patent as early as possible. Right now you don't have to file until the idea shapes up to the point that it has some economic possibilities. Under "first-to-file" you better file as soon as possible, lest the idea leak out and some troll files first. Result, lots and lots of patent applications. Plus, large companies with legal staff have it easier filing a patent than a small startup does.
Right to Work is dead?
Or at least in terrible jeopardy. As you may or may not remember, House Speaker Bill O'Brian scheduled an over-ride-Lynch-veto vote last week. Then it slipped. Then the speaker announced that the vote would be postponed until September.
Today's Wall St Journal carried the story but added that right-to-work in NH was dead. The Journal quoted some legislators as saying "I have a lot of Republican cops and firemen in my district. I don't dare cross them on right-to-work cause they might go and vote democratic on me."
Too bad. Right to work would bring new industry to New Hampshire. Companies won't invest in a state that lacks a right to work law. That's why the right to work states have shown better growth, both economic and population, than closed union shop states.
Today's Wall St Journal carried the story but added that right-to-work in NH was dead. The Journal quoted some legislators as saying "I have a lot of Republican cops and firemen in my district. I don't dare cross them on right-to-work cause they might go and vote democratic on me."
Too bad. Right to work would bring new industry to New Hampshire. Companies won't invest in a state that lacks a right to work law. That's why the right to work states have shown better growth, both economic and population, than closed union shop states.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Home sprinklers defeated
The nation's fire men have been pushing for installation of sprinkler systems in all new residential construction. They pushed hard enough to get a sprinkler requirement into the national fire code a few years ago.
This requirement would jack up the price of a new home by $5000 and bring you tasteful chrome sprinkler heads in the living room ceiling. Political pressure from home builders and ordinary citizens got the NH legislature to pass a bill forbidding cities and towns from requiring sprinklers in new residential construction. Our governor, Lynch, vetoed the bill a few days ago.
Fortunately, the legislature was able to over ride the governor's veto yesterday and New Hampshire homes can remain free of mandatory and expensive sprinkler systems.
Now if we can only find the votes to override Lynch's veto of right-to-work.
This requirement would jack up the price of a new home by $5000 and bring you tasteful chrome sprinkler heads in the living room ceiling. Political pressure from home builders and ordinary citizens got the NH legislature to pass a bill forbidding cities and towns from requiring sprinklers in new residential construction. Our governor, Lynch, vetoed the bill a few days ago.
Fortunately, the legislature was able to over ride the governor's veto yesterday and New Hampshire homes can remain free of mandatory and expensive sprinkler systems.
Now if we can only find the votes to override Lynch's veto of right-to-work.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Does spending kill jobs?
No, according to a Wall St Journal op-ed by Alan S. Blinder, a Princeton professor of economics. We have to take this with a grain of salt, Mr. Blinder's arguments are difficult to follow and are strewn with oddities.
For instance, "But even building bridges to nowhere would create jobs, not destroy them, as the congressman from nowhere knows." Mr. Blinder fails to understand that jobs must create wealth, not consume it. Farming, mining, manufacturing, logging create wealth. Bridges to nowhere consume wealth. Might as well just pile the money in a heap and burn it for all the good they do. Government make-work jobs are just welfare dressed up pretty.
Or, referring to the Obama Porkulus bill, "How in the world could all that spending, accompanied by tax cuts, fail to raise employment?" Good question Mr. Blinder, where did all that money go, leaving us with 9.1% unemployment? It is obvious to a Princeton economist that so much spending absolutely must raise employment. Perhaps Mr. Blinder is so wedded to Keynesian economic theory that he cannot bother to look at real data, like the unemployment rate
Then he makes a favorable reference to Paul Krugman. That is a bad sign. In my estimation, Krugman is an idiot, despite his Nobel prize in economics and his perch on the New York Times op-ed page.
Blinder sums things up by saying that we need spending and tax cuts to create jobs but cuts and tax hikes to balance the budget. He never mentions that economic growth ( which we don't have) will balance the budget. He then offers a tricky tax credit (aka tax loophole) to encourage hiring.
Mr. Blinder has just earned a spot on my personal idiots list.
For instance, "But even building bridges to nowhere would create jobs, not destroy them, as the congressman from nowhere knows." Mr. Blinder fails to understand that jobs must create wealth, not consume it. Farming, mining, manufacturing, logging create wealth. Bridges to nowhere consume wealth. Might as well just pile the money in a heap and burn it for all the good they do. Government make-work jobs are just welfare dressed up pretty.
Or, referring to the Obama Porkulus bill, "How in the world could all that spending, accompanied by tax cuts, fail to raise employment?" Good question Mr. Blinder, where did all that money go, leaving us with 9.1% unemployment? It is obvious to a Princeton economist that so much spending absolutely must raise employment. Perhaps Mr. Blinder is so wedded to Keynesian economic theory that he cannot bother to look at real data, like the unemployment rate
Then he makes a favorable reference to Paul Krugman. That is a bad sign. In my estimation, Krugman is an idiot, despite his Nobel prize in economics and his perch on the New York Times op-ed page.
Blinder sums things up by saying that we need spending and tax cuts to create jobs but cuts and tax hikes to balance the budget. He never mentions that economic growth ( which we don't have) will balance the budget. He then offers a tricky tax credit (aka tax loophole) to encourage hiring.
Mr. Blinder has just earned a spot on my personal idiots list.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Sunspots
Lotta talk on the internet about a solar something-or-other concerning sunspots, or rather the lack of them. Some in climate "science" are claiming that a sunspot drought will save us from Global Warming.
Doubtful. Sunspots have been observed for some 400 years. They wax and wane on an 11 year cycle, and they do effect high frequency (2-30 MHz) radio communication. During sunspot maximum radio amateurs can work stations all over the world. During sunspot minimum they may have trouble working a friend in the next town.
Needless to say, amateurs pay a good deal of attention to sunspots. Right now we are at sunspot minumum, and it's the lowest minimum on record. Like zero spots visible, and we are late coming out of it. We should have a lot more sunspots right now than we do. Based on this sunspot drought some people are predicting an abnormal sunspot cycle. This has happened before, and no reason to believe it won't happen again.
There is little reason to believe that sunspots have anything to do with Global Warming. No weatherman will say that sunspots effect the weather, and climate is just long term weather forecasting. The climate "scientists" will say almost anything, you gotta watch them carefully.
We have about 30 years of satellite data on "the solar constant", i.e. the amount of sunlight falling on the earth. The satellites show about 1350 watts per square meter. If you look hard at the plots of satellite data, you can see the 11 year sunspot cycle, it's about plus/minus 1 watt/sq meter, that's a variation of like 0.1%. Weathermen and most reasonable people feel that is way too small to make any difference in weather.
But expect to see a good deal of talk about it on slow news days.
Doubtful. Sunspots have been observed for some 400 years. They wax and wane on an 11 year cycle, and they do effect high frequency (2-30 MHz) radio communication. During sunspot maximum radio amateurs can work stations all over the world. During sunspot minimum they may have trouble working a friend in the next town.
Needless to say, amateurs pay a good deal of attention to sunspots. Right now we are at sunspot minumum, and it's the lowest minimum on record. Like zero spots visible, and we are late coming out of it. We should have a lot more sunspots right now than we do. Based on this sunspot drought some people are predicting an abnormal sunspot cycle. This has happened before, and no reason to believe it won't happen again.
There is little reason to believe that sunspots have anything to do with Global Warming. No weatherman will say that sunspots effect the weather, and climate is just long term weather forecasting. The climate "scientists" will say almost anything, you gotta watch them carefully.
We have about 30 years of satellite data on "the solar constant", i.e. the amount of sunlight falling on the earth. The satellites show about 1350 watts per square meter. If you look hard at the plots of satellite data, you can see the 11 year sunspot cycle, it's about plus/minus 1 watt/sq meter, that's a variation of like 0.1%. Weathermen and most reasonable people feel that is way too small to make any difference in weather.
But expect to see a good deal of talk about it on slow news days.
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Mouse Guns.
New issue of American Rifleman has a review of the Diamondback DB380 pistol. It's an automatic chambered for 380 ACP, polymer frame, six shots. Looks like a mini Glock, a pocket pistol.
Somewhere in the writeup they mention the DB380 had seven failures-to-feed while they were testing it. Wow! Four failures occurred with hollow point ammunition and 3 with round nose full metal jacket ammunition. This negates a common excuse for failure-to-feed in automatic pistols, hollow point ammunition. Looks like the DB380 has about as much trouble with full metal jacket as it does with hollow points.
The authors of the review suggest (but don't guarantee) that this might go away after shooting the gun in for a while longer.
Sounds like a good reason to get a .38 snub nosed revolver.
Somewhere in the writeup they mention the DB380 had seven failures-to-feed while they were testing it. Wow! Four failures occurred with hollow point ammunition and 3 with round nose full metal jacket ammunition. This negates a common excuse for failure-to-feed in automatic pistols, hollow point ammunition. Looks like the DB380 has about as much trouble with full metal jacket as it does with hollow points.
The authors of the review suggest (but don't guarantee) that this might go away after shooting the gun in for a while longer.
Sounds like a good reason to get a .38 snub nosed revolver.
Obama and the War Powers Act Part 2
Meet the Press went over the matter just this morning. Funny thing, the Republicans on the panel were more supportive of the Libya war than the Democrats. The Republicans both said something like "We wish Obama would talk up the need for Libya to both voters and Congress men. It's something that needs doing, but Obama ain't doing it right." Which has to count as more supportive than the Democrats on the same panel nattering about War Powers.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Obama and the War Powers Act
Ya gotta wonder about Obama. Basic lesson from history, if you want to get in a war you need support from the voters and from Congress. Lack of such support doomed the Viet Nam war effort. Congress passed the War Powers Act to prevent a gung ho president from dragging the nation into another Viet Nam war.
So Obama decides to intervene in Libya without going to Congress and asking for support (in effect a declaration of war). Dumb move. We been bombing the crap out of Quaddafi for two months, and the bastard is since there. And now, Congress is making noises about War Powers and disapproval, and cutting off funding.
Obama should have gone to Congress two months ago and gotten a resolution that whackng Quadaffi is in the national interest. It would have passed, Quadaffi is scum who is better off dead. But now, Obama may be wrapped around the Congressional axle for lack of forethought.
So Obama decides to intervene in Libya without going to Congress and asking for support (in effect a declaration of war). Dumb move. We been bombing the crap out of Quaddafi for two months, and the bastard is since there. And now, Congress is making noises about War Powers and disapproval, and cutting off funding.
Obama should have gone to Congress two months ago and gotten a resolution that whackng Quadaffi is in the national interest. It would have passed, Quadaffi is scum who is better off dead. But now, Obama may be wrapped around the Congressional axle for lack of forethought.
Friday, June 17, 2011
So why did the Roman Empire Fall?
The perennial question of ancient history. Many historians have chimed in on this one. The empire was, at its peak, immensely strong. At the center of the empire was the Mediterranean Sea, offering water transport to and from all points. The empire controlled the entire shoreline of the Mediterranean, which for the first time in history, put down the pirates. Pirates are not suppressed in blue water encounters with naval vessels, they are suppressed by taking over their home ports. The empire was the first to profit from widespread sea trading. Water transport was so cheap that the city of Rome fed its people on grain imported from far away Egypt. So what laid the empire low?
Perhaps it was the lack of a succession mechanism. When the emperor died, a civil war often broke out to determine the next emperor. Nothing saps the strength of an empire like a civil war. In addition to the killing and the property damage, the survivors are likely to adopt a life long "keep your head down" attitude and contribute as little as possible to keeping things running.
Then there must have been technological diffusion. In Julius Caesar's time (first century BC) the legions were far superior to the Gauls and the Celts and everybody else. The Legions knew about marching in step, staying in ranks, obeying orders, and they had better weapons too. Caesar tells of Gauls having to drop back from the front line, lay their bent swords on the ground, and pull them straight again. The legionary gladius didn't have this problem, due to superior Roman smith craft.
By say 300 AD, this superior Roman technology must have diffused out into the wider world, and the legions found them selves fighting barbarians who were as good as they were. Some of this diffusion must have come from the Roman practice of enlisting barbarians to fill the ranks of the legions. After serving a 20 year enlistment, the retired veterans must have known everything there was to know about Roman military art. Plenty of them must have returned home to where ever and passed on what they had learned.
There are other reasons, such as failure of the Roman tax base, that have been widely discussed by historians, the notions of repeated succession crisis and technological diffusion are my own.
Perhaps it was the lack of a succession mechanism. When the emperor died, a civil war often broke out to determine the next emperor. Nothing saps the strength of an empire like a civil war. In addition to the killing and the property damage, the survivors are likely to adopt a life long "keep your head down" attitude and contribute as little as possible to keeping things running.
Then there must have been technological diffusion. In Julius Caesar's time (first century BC) the legions were far superior to the Gauls and the Celts and everybody else. The Legions knew about marching in step, staying in ranks, obeying orders, and they had better weapons too. Caesar tells of Gauls having to drop back from the front line, lay their bent swords on the ground, and pull them straight again. The legionary gladius didn't have this problem, due to superior Roman smith craft.
By say 300 AD, this superior Roman technology must have diffused out into the wider world, and the legions found them selves fighting barbarians who were as good as they were. Some of this diffusion must have come from the Roman practice of enlisting barbarians to fill the ranks of the legions. After serving a 20 year enlistment, the retired veterans must have known everything there was to know about Roman military art. Plenty of them must have returned home to where ever and passed on what they had learned.
There are other reasons, such as failure of the Roman tax base, that have been widely discussed by historians, the notions of repeated succession crisis and technological diffusion are my own.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Can Boeing sell the V22 Osprey?
Apparently the US has bought about all the V22's it wants. To keep the Boeing production line open, and all the workers employed, Boeing is looking to sell the V22 tiltrotor to any foreign country with money. A lot of money, V22 is expensive. Much more expensive than helicopters.
According to Aviation Week, notes that "V-22's ship board accoutrements- including folding wings and electro magnetic hardening- account for nearly half the cost." Wow.
And "A particular headache for the V-22 has been engine on wing time, now averaging 100-200 hours in the harsh conditions of Afghanistan" Double wow. J-75 fighter plane engines gave 1000 hour service back in the 1960's.
Boeing has an expensive-to-buy and expensive-to-fly machine here. Good luck finding customers for it.
According to Aviation Week, notes that "V-22's ship board accoutrements- including folding wings and electro magnetic hardening- account for nearly half the cost." Wow.
And "A particular headache for the V-22 has been engine on wing time, now averaging 100-200 hours in the harsh conditions of Afghanistan" Double wow. J-75 fighter plane engines gave 1000 hour service back in the 1960's.
Boeing has an expensive-to-buy and expensive-to-fly machine here. Good luck finding customers for it.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Protect electric power grid
Op ed piece in the Wall St Journal, decrying to failure of the government to "protect the electric grid" from hostile Chinese hackers.
Sorry, it is the responsibility of the power companies to protect their assets, not the government. All that is necessary is to make sure that control of generators and other machinery never goes over the public internet, and that Windows computers are never connected to the internet. They can even use cheap PC's so long as they run Linux and not Windows.
State public utility commissions should be asking their regulated power companies about use of the public internet.
Sorry, it is the responsibility of the power companies to protect their assets, not the government. All that is necessary is to make sure that control of generators and other machinery never goes over the public internet, and that Windows computers are never connected to the internet. They can even use cheap PC's so long as they run Linux and not Windows.
State public utility commissions should be asking their regulated power companies about use of the public internet.
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